• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Keep an eye on the high pressure in the middle of the country. We need it trending strong over the next couple days. Its going to have to be pretty damn healthy in order to keep this thing pushed south
 
6044AE97-0CFA-4190-8B98-7B088F98DD93.png A455FE7C-3338-4DBB-B049-9201882A50C7.png Little better , the FV3
 
Avalanche said:
Forgive my untrained eye, but what feature exist to dislodge that n.e. high?
Click to expand...
Nothings really dislodging it, it’s just sliding off the coast because there is no blocking (-NAO) to slow it down!
 
166634C1-5554-47D8-B8EE-5164987F26CD.png A glimmer of hope, from a great and very knowledgeable poster on the other board!
 
Euro doesn't look terrible in NC, otherwise a lot of rain for everyone else, snow barely NW of me :rolleyes:
 
If we really want to score a big event here, we need that s/w on the southwestern shore of the Hudson Bay to speed up and be rotating thru the Lakes and towards Quebec by the time our southern stream wave emerges from the southwestern US so as to get the cold surface high in the right place at the right time on the backend of the s/w where low-level CAA and confluence are maximized and favor the most significant surface pressure rises. Plenty of time to make this kind of change. Oth, our s/w could speed up a bit and catch the back end of the other wave pinwheeling around the base of the Hudson Bay vortex. The timing on the Euro really couldn't be much worse atm which is good & bad news.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png
 
To Webber’s point ...
ef3d52a3e6a642786c05a415df6d71c2.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
gfs_asnow_seus_40.png
What are y'all talking about lol!! Plus gefs looked good
 
I think this will come even further NW and may even take the MA out of the game. Without anything (-NAO) to impede its progress the high is sprinting out to sea as fast as its little isobars can carry it. Of course I could be wrong this far out :p
 
Storm5 said:
Gefs looks like hot garbage . It’s skewed from two big members

The overnight trend was clear , rain for us and snow for the Ohio valley


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I agree. Overnight runs sucked! We obviously still have plenty of time to see what happens. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a severe threat possibly as well . Depends on track obviously.
 
There’s no real “trends” overnight, just a couple of bad Operational runs and the ensembles did go down in snowfall members (Euro slightly, not sure about GEFS but it appears it went down a lot) but moisture overall didn’t go down. For example, the mean QPF for RDU was 0.6” for both the 12z and 00z last night. The reason for less snow is probably temperature issues as the track of the s/w is similar on the last two eps runs.

If anything the ridge amplified a little.
1e642a86c4bf6470c1fc59ca0c3edbba.gif


The problem here is the confluence is already negatively tilted, so it’s swinging due east when our storm is approaching.

But you can see how the EPS compares to the 00z op here:
6ce54e6db2dc3d1ba997b4a3a4b0788d.gif

The confluence is neutral tilted and the storm sped up, with the shortwave over Kentucky instead of Louisiana, which is why the operational gives a snowfall just north of Kentucky.

Also, the GFS is just wrong here with the ridging stretching all the way to the NE...
5752ff7d7f6a522e7d8cb97798e76a52.jpg


There’s many reasons this won’t work out, but it’s not a toss yet as the ensembles are still holding on, and ensembles between suites (eps vs GEFS) are still too different to say they have a grasp of this system.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Yeah, the 6z GFS is terrible for a winter storm initially. However, it's possible a low pressure system may develop on the tail end of the frontal boundary from the first system next weekend. From the 6z GFS, there is another piece of energy coming down after next weekend's system (GIF) If that is to be true, and if something develops on the tail end of the frontal boundary, there maybe a "bomb" of a low pressure while cold air would be in place. So, be on the lookout for that possible further development.
74db7b941c79bd1756eb11e308d0c826.gif
cf54977563280ba52981e5afb27f6bef.jpg
 
The potential for a storm is still there. Lots of time for specifics to be worked out, and lots of time for models to go from nothing to a big storm to nothing to a big storm again, rinse and repeat. We won't know for sure what exactly will happen until we are at least inside 72 hours. The back and forth this far out happens with every hit and every miss. But the potential is still showing up, and that is good news if you want some winter storms.
 
The only "trend" I see from this storm is that the storm is a no go during every 00z and 06z GFS run and reels everyone back in during the 12z and 18z runs. It's happened the last three days. Surprised no one else has noticed it. Wouldn't give up on anything because there has been no real trend at all.
 
Robert West said:
The only "trend" I see from this storm is that the storm is a no go during every 00z and 06z GFS run and reels everyone back in during the 12z and 18z runs. It's happened the last three days. Surprised no one else has noticed it. Wouldn't give up on anything because there has been no real trend at all.
Click to expand...
Yeah, when the models keep going from nothing to a big snow storm inside 24 hours, I don't think you can call it a trend either way.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top