The Dec 5th storm, looks as close as the 9th storm!? A few tweaks, we are $$
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Brent
Member
well even a rain event here would be news, been very dry this month after the rain never seemed to end in September/October 
I know this is banter. Butt......
We need to make it a pit of snakes just for you. Lol j/k
To me this thing is still so far out for the GFS it doesn’t know if it wants to run, cut, or become a GL and take a Miller A track.
that GL track is money. Maybe we need to get that low entering SoCal trending further south?
Hey tarheel. We just about 140 hours from what the nam has to say on this. LMBO!!! :weenie::weenie::weenie:
NWMSGuy
Member
Just my observation, the track of the low on the GFS the past few runs has been pretty consistent through the northern part of the gulf/coastal area.
Ok, but I thought the NS always hurt our snow chances. Isn’t that what messes up our STJ and causes storms to cut?
That New Orleans to Charleston track of that low is no bueno for this area. We need that low tracking more eastward and exiting the coast at least south of Savannah. Hoping for a couple of Miller A's just like that this winter.
I think separation is the key! You need the N stream to be ahead of the S stream, to get the cold air established. But it’s a fine line, if the N stream is too strong , the cold air will crush the S stream. Or if N stream moves out too fast, it takes away the cold! That’s where blocking and the -NAO helps, to keep the cold locked in longer
I love the long range NAM! It’s nailed the thermal profile in a lot of our winter storms lately! I look at it to see how much sleet and rain I’m gonna get, when forecast calls for 3-6” of snow!
Yea no kidding. Gotta give it credit. It nailed last December storm. Would like for it to get a upgrade kinda like the gfs is getting.
One of the reasons why the 0z GFS is warmer than the 18z is because, the HP pushes ahead of the system to the northeast. The HP needs to move along with the low to provide the cold dense air for snow, like what the 18z GFS projected. Also, the 0z GFS puts the low further north, which WAA would be taking over.
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Speaking of upgrade FV3-GFS no go on the storm. Actually doesn’t have the storm at all. Just dry.
Oh yea, WAA is our worst enemy.
Btw, welcome to forum!! Love it when our new forum members comes on in and join the conversation.
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Why can’t we have a winter with no Northern Stream..just Energy diving down out of
Canada meeting up with energy riding our STJ
Canada meeting up with energy riding our STJ
Oh wow, the 0z FV3 run is crazy!
