Storm5
Member
FV3 gonna try again and is a little faster this run
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FV3 says no.
Storm5
Member
FV3 gonna try again and is a little faster this run
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Much faster more in line with the gfs . Big storm . Rain for most this run but there are clean signs for an eastern us storm late next week
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whatalife
Moderator
pcbjr
Member
If you hated them, you'd be downright miserable on a fairly routine basis ... might even need therapy in that event ...
snowlover91
Member
You know we are desperate for snow when the 240+ hour GFS is being analyzed in detail lol.
It seems like models have been trying to get a little “ridge happy” in the long range to no avail so far. Someone correct me if I’m wrong
bullseye over mi casa. What could go wrong
Storm5
Member
What are you new to the weather boards ??? This is what we do for the next three months . It’s not being desperate, it’s being a weenie
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I recall being banned from an old weather forum for a controversy that arose after a very similar comment
P.S. I might have been a little bit of a jerk about it.
SnowNiner
Member
And to be fair, the ensembles are hinting at this timeframe. So each run that shows, we hug. Each run that doesn't we toss. Lol. Rinse repeat till april.
FWIW (virtually nothing) the H5 setup between the 18z GEFS and GFS are pretty similar around D10 to D12. Basically suggests that the GFS solution isn't way out in left field from it's ensembles.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think I'd like to give it another day or two before starting to pay close attention.
I’d rather wait until the Euro says yes.
Philstorm91
Member
Just need a stronger/colder high pressure to the north of the storm for some suppression to get us Gulf Coasters in the happy zone. I guess winter wx has to start somewhere in the south though.
Nope not desperate. Just something to talk about. Kinda like the start of football season. Always a lot of speculation.
Jessy89
Member
Just a question can it snow on the 546 line? I always here you need 540 for snow
snowlover91
Member
Yep it can in certain setups. I’ve also seen rain in areas under the 540 and 534dm lines too. My favorite tool to use inside 120 hours are soundings to analyze the profile to see what p-type is supported. Inside 84 hours the NAM is great at picking up on warm air aloft that often causes mixing issues.
If this does materialize as shown on the GFS, it would be the ultimate needle threading. I definitely want to see that ridge pump more.
If that winter system verifies that we're watching, it would be the 2nd winter event in a row for early December. Remember last year in early December around the 6th-10th(?) time frame? I'm not saying it will be the same, it's just interesting that there could be a winter system around the same dates as of last year.
(Thank you for approving my account by the way!)
(Thank you for approving my account by the way!)