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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

I spy the members that caused the GEFS to look good in the end for the storm. Too bad there was only 3 of them. I'd take E1/E20 and go chase a little for E9. Too bad they aren't actual models and just a part of a run.
 
Jessy89 said:
Is the Gfs and gefs the same model?
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It actually just the same model but takes in a little bit different data and splits out all the different solutions. You have individual GEFS members model and then you have a GEFS mean where it combines all the members to create a average.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Darkknight the last post I posted... Should it have been in banter... If so I apologize I definitely don't want any warning points ok back to weather
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No your good... :) it was a another member saying something that shouldn’t been said. It has been handled... No worries!! :)
 
Wow, the GFS and new GFS went bonkers! We have to get Carolina Crusher 2: Electric Boogaloo sometime. Might as well be with this one.

Really, they might be too much, but the trends today have pointed to a possible winter storm around the 9th. The signal has been strong today.
 
DarkKnight said:
No your good... :) it was a another member saying something that shouldn’t been said. It has been handled... No worries!! :)
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Thank God I was holding my breath for a sec thank you... My goal here is abiding by all the rules... I still feel great about the 8th through the 10th period yes the models are going to flip flop until it gets a handle on the pattern but I'm not quitting on a board wide storm for the south
 
deltadog03 said:
Ok so let's think......if*** models are close to being right, y'all realize that the CAD areas are going to be colder, more than likely.
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Definitely. At minimum, there would be a large ice storm for ATL to Greenville, SC. If it is colder throughout the column, and it's close for N GA, AL, and upstate SC, it could be a huge upper SE snowstorm. Of course the warm nose may sneak its way in and ruin everything but it's all hypothetical anyway.
 
From what I looked at on the temps and the CAD usually not being modeled strong enough if that look on the models was to happen this could be a big dawg. Probably not but it’s nice to track an early storm.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Definitely. At minimum, there would be a large ice storm for ATL to Greenville, SC. If it is colder throughout the column, and it's close for N GA, AL, and upstate SC, it could be a huge upper SE snowstorm. Of course the warm nose may sneak its way in and ruin everything but it's all hypothetical anyway.
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It really is amazing the difference a few miles can make and the thermal profiles! That Dec 02 storm, I started out as straight sleet and ZR, but up near CLT, they had a big front end thump of snow. I was supposed to get only ZR, and ended up with enough sleet to whiten the ground! Was a great storm! Precip started with temps at 30, temp fell slowly all day and ended up at 26 , when the heaviest precip came through! Best ice storm I’ve ever experienced!
 
Tarheel1 said:
It really is amazing the difference a few miles can make and the thermal profiles! That Dec 02 storm, I started out as straight sleet and ZR, but up near CLT, they had a big front end thump of snow. I was supposed to get only ZR, and ended up with enough sleet to whiten the ground! Was a great storm! Precip started with temps at 30, temp fell slowly all day and ended up at 26 , when the heaviest precip came through! Best ice storm I’ve ever experienced!
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Those early 2000’s ice storms have yet to be replicated around here. The sound of those tree limbs snapping at night was just wild. Haven’t heard anything like it in a long long time
 
One thing that seems to be consistent this year is the moisture. Since the start of summer it has been rainstorm after storm. Looking over the model runs the last month and it just continues to be a parade of lows. Encouraging to say the least
 
We got an amazing snowstorm in the deep south last Dec 7/8, why not now? Is it possible? YES!! Will it happen not sure but is looking to be a threat for someone.
 
As much as next weekend looks very exciting, I’m paying more attention to next Tuesday pm into Wednesday for now. Sure it’s no big dog but it’s 5 days out and it could bring some nice flizzards and maybe a dusting!!

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Well 0Z GFS just fired up we will know here in about 45-60 minutes if we going to have heartbreak or not... I thinking it will be a lot better then last nights run IMO... Just need that low to trend about 100 miles south from where it was on the 18z!!! We will be golden for a lot of people....
 
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DarkKnight said:
Well 0Z GFS just fired up we will know here in about 45-60 minutes if we going to have heartbreak or not... I thinking it will a lot better then last nights run IMO... Just need that low to trend about 100 miles south from where it was on the 18z!!! We will be golden for a lot of people....
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I won’t be surprised if we have multiple heart breaks from now till next weekend even if this storm does pan out for us.
 
DarkKnight said:
Well 0Z GFS just fired up we will know here in about 45-60 minutes if we going to have heartbreak or not... I thinking it will a lot better then last nights run IMO... Just need that low to trend about 100 miles south from where it was on the 18z!!! We will be golden for a lot of people....
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Let’s speed it up a tick too
 
What I posted on FB
So as we all know, this is highly likely to change. There is some "noise" about a potential storm next Friday/Saturday. It's waaaaaaay out there, but we can still chat about it.

So let's look at a few things. GFS brings out a system that moves along the GOM coastline (or closed to it) with plenty of moisture and some cold air nearby to the north. There will be an area of high pressure over the NE delivering that colder air. The air will be cold, but how cold is the question. (remember we are only going to be in early December). So keep your expectations in check please. GFS does have some wintry precipitation on the northern side. See images below. ***again just some model output that will change***. Depending on the cold and how it sets up we will have to watch this.

12z EURO run says no thanks and the low pressure is much further north. Ie everyone gets rain and maybe storms. See images below. (note that free euro maps only every 24 hours). EURO ensemble (EPS) is showing a more southern solution closer to the GFS for now.

Again take with a grain of salt for now, but something to watch.
 
I'm confident enough to say that; I do believe the track of low will be a southern slider. I don't think we'll see any more significant track changes with the low. Here on out, I'm not sure about you, but it's a good idea to start looking for trends on future model runs as the mid range is approaching. This will lead to some ideas/predictions as to what may lead in mid to short range.
 
Cold push behind the clipper looks ok
 
N stream definitely going to beat the S wave! Need it to bring a big cold press!!
 
GFS has that dumpster fire look to it early on! 1032 over TN , in front of the storm, no bueno!
 
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