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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

The King says good luck with your snowstorm next weekend
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Looks similar to GFS through 168 hr, then totally breaks the western ridge down which pops up the Atlantic ridge.
This could be one of those years where models keep trying to break down the western ridge to no avail. Last year before christmas every model was intent on flaring up a SER. Soon after is when they finally got a grip and the bottom fell out for the next several weeks
 
The Euro has support from the EPS. Now it could be as mentioned the bias of the Euro wanting to dampen the western ridge.

I'd side with the GEFS for the moment because of consistency. That said the GEFS may have consistency in being wrong.

Yep , this sure won’t work
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To be honest, not much difference between them. GEFS is stronger with the western ridge and stronger with the ridging over Greenland.
Which keeps the SER at bay while the EPS shows it trying to flex.... I'm going to lean towards the EPS overdoing the SER a little too much and relatively speaking there is some cold air not that far away, touch stronger west ridge and it pours south
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I spy with my little eye: GEFS has a stronger ridge over Greenland, stronger western ridge. That’s why it has a less strong West Atlantic Ridge? They really aren’t that far off to my untrained eye but the subtle differences are what’s going to mean “Eastern trough” or “SER”. Like Arcc has been saying the Ridge out west has been pretty constant on modeling and even retrograding back west some so I would be inclined to side with GEFS even though a brief warm up before a pattern reset wouldn’t surprise me.
 
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