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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Since I haven't been watching the models very closely, how has the SER been modeled so far this fall season compared to verification?
 
Oh Canada!
snod.conus.png
 
So, my Weather Channel app has a chance of snow showers here Dec 7-9.

And the models keep going back and forth, but we are seeing them show snow in the long range fairly often in runs, and different models have been doing it. I think we are seeing some strong warning signs of possible winter storm action starting the first part of December.
 
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packfan98 said:
Oh Canada!
snod.conus.png
Click to expand...

GEFS looks like it's sniffin out this too, just not crazy. It looks like a very marginal setup, but it may be/could be our first actual tracked storm of the season, December 8-9. Probably a nice thump for the mountains if it pans out.

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png


snod.conus.png
 
I will be surprised if I don't at least see snow falling here before Dec 15. I just think the pattern setting up and all the "fantasy" storms showing in the long range are really hitting on something.
 
NWMSGuy said:
How are we looking at the 500mb level at 18z compared to 12z with this possible 8/9th event?
Click to expand...

Some small changes here and there, but nothing more than run to run variability. Only thing that you can take at this point is the GFS wants to kick energy out of the SW into a cool air mass.
 
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