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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

The GEFS isn't impressed.
snod.conus.png

Or is it???
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At the least the 18Z is a good learning tool for what a great SE storm looks like verbatim at H5. If that look continues it would trend colder and more wintry for a lot of folks. About ideal for NC, western SC and parts of north Georgia and Alabama with a weak overrunning low that then intensifies as it hits the Atlantic. Dare to dream.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol salty ??? Why would I be salty . All I said was too bad it’s so far out . Which actually could be a good thing as it could trend better for our northern peeps


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No snow for you! AL
 
snowlover91 said:
Yep this is the system I mentioned this morning. Might not be much but some token flakes flying sure would be nice! It’s only 138 hours out so within reason to start tracking closer.
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I like the setup to maybe sneak a few flakes in on Wednesday. The gfs is taking a perfect track with the shortwave but most other models are farther north. Need that wave to ride right over us or preferably just south to get some real fun

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Cary_Snow95 said:
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With a a 1036 parked in that spot over NY I would expect 850s much colder across NC
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Agreed! That’s a classic ice storm look all day! High plenty strong enough and models have been colder than modeled on almost every wedge this year!
 
SD said:
I like the setup to maybe sneak a few flakes in on Wednesday. The gfs is taking a perfect track with the shortwave but most other models are farther north. Need that wave to ride right over us or preferably just south to get some real fun

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When the GFS is the southern outlier....eek
 
I think the 18z GFS is under estimating somethings for the CAD areas over northern Georgia and upstate SC. A wedge builds later on (1036/1034 high over the NE) so areas over northern Georgia/Upstate SC could see a cold rain to sleet/ZR to all snow (or a mix, depending on temp. profiles.) You have to factor in wet bulb temps. You also have to consider, with northeasterly winds coming from that wedge, and those winds blowing down the cold air surrounding the snowfall from NC, I think it could be colder than what the GFS is projecting for northern Georgia/Upstate SC. For AL/MS, rain could change to snow when the low makes it's way east of there. It's strange to me that there's no colder air making it directly behind the system further west. Typically, colder air rushes in behind winter systems. Of course, if things shift south, there would be more widespread snow over the southeast.
 
IMO this big dog will track at least 50-100 miles more NW taking most of us out of the heavy snow and into the transition area. Those in S Va and north could see a boatload of snow (Oh and NC mountains too!)
 
MichaelJ said:
IMO this big dog will track at least 50-100 miles more NW taking most of us out of the heavy snow and into the transition area. Those in S Va and north could see a boatload of snow (Oh and NC mountains too!)
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Last winter , the “ NW trend” was non-existent . It’s not a guarantee , and SE trends have become more common!
 
Kylo said:
Not to bad.
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Thanks. Looks like the AK vortex and west coast trough retrograde out of the picture. Not a bad thought really and would set us up for a cold January as heights rise in the EPO region. Not that dissimilar than the last few winters

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I notice we got a few trolls out and about. Lol.
Main thing is we got to get this thing within 144 hrs or even 120 hrs. Everybody is trying to jump to conclusion to quick. We just went from a 0z gfs Chicago rain storm to a 18z gfs close to being a board wide snowstorm hit.
 
Honestly with the H5, the look on both Gfs and FV3 Gfs the Midlands of South Carolina could potentially be affected by it. Still long ways out so just speciation
 
Rain Cold said:
When the GFS is the southern outlier....eek
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Yeah the gfs has a tendency to be too far south at this lead time. That being said the cmc has arguably better jet dynamics over nc on Wednesday but the response is a low off of the delmarva. The look isn't that far off even on the models showing nothing.

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