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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

As ARCC has been saying..... fairly consistent

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png
 
metwannabe said:
Oh dear Lord please let this track verify
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png
Click to expand...
That track sucks out loud for folks South and East. It’s a raging rainstorm followed by low 20’s on the backside. Temps don’t get above 40 for the following 2 days. It’s a complete nightmare, and one that we’re used to :(
 
whatalife said:
FV3 says to warm for everyone...It’s coming in a little slower then the GFS...


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It looked a little funky. It appeared to totally stall and dampen out, and then reappeared a day later. We need to get it under the 10 day mark and see what it looks like. It appears to be a very marginal setup right now.
 
packfan98 said:
It looked a little funky. It appeared to totally stall and dampen out, and then reappeared a day later. We need to get it under the 10 day mark and see what it looks like. It appears to be a very marginal setup right now.
Click to expand...

I totally agree...And until we see some support from the Euro these solutions been very little...


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whatalife said:
FV3 says to warm for everyone...It’s coming in a little slower then the GFS...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

packfan98 said:
It looked a little funky. It appeared to totally stall and dampen out, and then reappeared a day later. We need to get it under the 10 day mark and see what it looks like. It appears to be a very marginal setup right now.
Click to expand...

Y'all fret over the littlest things.... ;)
 
Looks like some may have a shot before the 20th or so but I like my earlier forecast of a warm up of about 1-2 weeks at Christmas time. I base this off the EPS showing the warm water SW off the coast of Alaska moving over Alaska changing the overall pattern over NAMER
 
metwannabe said:
Oh dear Lord please let this track verify
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png
Click to expand...

This may be a legit threat. The GFS wants to launch the western ridge eastward behind this system. However it has been trying to do this for a while, only to delay it and keep it west. You can see this if you watch the model trend.

If the ridge stays in place it will keep this farther south and colder. Someone may get a early present again.
 
Arcc said:
12z GEFS is cold for the SE from hr192 until a a frame or two before it ends. While that is far voodoo, we may have the west coast ridge setting in. If that is correct and the GEFS is the norm for most of winter, buckle up.
Click to expand...

Like you said the GEFS does warm up the conus by end of run but what it has modeled looks promising thereafter. Blocking is legit.

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height Anom 384 (1).png GEFS-AO.png
 
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