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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

If the mountains get snow the 8th and 9th. And here in Pickens we get zero it’s time to drive that way. Last December I went up to Maggie valley for that storm
 
Storm5 said:
The euro control looks like the big members that do hit
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Look at that gradient between a foot and a few inches.
 
Kylo said:
Curious on what he thinks “brief” is. I consider a couple of weeks brief. Big AK vortex don’t typically scurry out in a few days.
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Sounds like he’s thinking about a month!
 
I really feel like there will be an extreme weenie run in the next day or two!! A southern scraper, with low going off JAX , before it locks in on the MA paste job is the reality!:weenie::weenie::weenie:
 
Tarheel1 said:
I really feel like there will be an extreme weenie run in the next day or two!! A southern scraper, with low going off JAX , before it locks in on the MA paste job is the reality!:weenie::weenie::weenie:
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Yes, I agree. We have to be teased and get our hopes up. Just to be crushed and brought back to reality that we live in the south. Lol
 
Tarheel1 said:
I really feel like there will be an extreme weenie run in the next day or two!! A southern scraper, with low going off JAX , before it locks in on the MA paste job is the reality!:weenie::weenie::weenie:
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There already was one a few days ago on the FV3. Feb 1973 redux. Model hours shouldn’t go past 240, anything after that is a joke.
 
This might be the winter we see the opposite, and get a SE trend. Of course, we have seen models go farther and farther south, only to come back NW, too. Plenty of time for that, also.
 
Storm5 said:
JB says the NW trend is coming . Kiss of death. Everyone in the south should prepare for a blizzard a
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Yeah it can stay just where it is....and where the ensembles are....thank you very much! Hopefully no NW trend.
 
RollTide18 said:
There already was one a few days ago on the FV3. Feb 1973 redux. Model hours shouldn’t go past 240, anything after that is a joke.
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I always remember this one time when I was much younger (senior in high school I believe) when I was "tracking" a February storm on the GFS from literally Day 16. It showed up consistently as a beautiful Miller A snowstorm from Day 16 and kept showing up Day 15, 14, 13 all the way until the day it made it to truncation and it disappeared, never to return. Once I wised up to what was going on, I quit wasting my time chasing storms beyond model truncation - there's enough frustration and wild roller-coaster rides to deal with getting from Day 7 inside of Day 5.

If I had to bet, I think this one ends up cutting despite what the ensembles are suggesting right now (mainly because it keeps trending slower and probably will continue to) but it's really anyone's guess.
 
deltadog03 said:
Looking at what y'all posted, EPS, it does support the op some, but to me it supports the southern route more
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EPS is nowhere close to the Op (IMO)


Not to hype anything, but the last time I saw this many big dog members (pink) this far out was Jan 6-7 2017... NC triad folks remember that one. We just usually don’t get 6 or more 10”+ snows on the EPS individual members this far out...about as strong of a signal as you’ll find. It can trend NW sure — as it did in 2017, Raleigh got shafted, but maybe someone will get in on an early December snow. Only problem....it’s early December. Lol

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High is stronger but low is further North..what gives...nice little thump incoming for NC
 
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