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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

accu35 said:
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Talk about heavy snow there
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The clown map is going to be great. Looks like about a foot or so. Here come all the NC folks jumping on the train for this now... Here's the first one. Looks like a classic Wake county gradient.
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As soon as that HP moved east Asheville got shellacked by heavy snow. Talk about thread the needle. Everything is hinging on HP placement and low track. Par for the course I guess. Let’s get that low tracking over central Florida with a 1038 locked in over NY for the duration just to be safe
 
If you want to seriously disrupt the polar vortex, this is the kind of pattern we need to see. While it's warm initially for us, I'm curious what long-term implications this would have on the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) & tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO) as we get late into December and beyond thru January & February.
A bout of negative mountain torque (-MT) will occur in concert w/ the huge warm-up east of the Rockies as we lose cold highs descending into the CONUS, and this regime will try to decelerate the Atlantic jet later in the month, offsetting changes being introduced by tropical forcing that'll try and create a +NAO.

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From this classic Garfinkel et al (2012) paper:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144
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Hubba Hubba! And it starts in less than 10 days now officially. Only by a shade. Next hurdle is if im typing this again come Monday, except ill be saying its under 5 days. Which is the all important 120 hr benchmark.
 
E6C23E56-EE71-4FD4-B5EE-11F9F5842EC9.png Look at that RAH gradient!!!
 
Wow, GFS comes back with a major winter storm for NC. Looked like close to a foot on the clown map for me. And the CMC is heading in the same direction. There is definitely a strong signal for a storm around Dec 9.
 
It's certainly a set in the right direction. The 12z run from the GFS looks similar as some of it's previous runs, regarding the track of low and placement of frozen precip. Today could be the beginnings of trends, depending on other modeling today and days ahead. With a look like that that's on the 12z GFS, the low could track further south than what the model is projecting. Of course, we'll have to be on the "watch" for evidence for a south trend.
 
GFS lost it, Euro started to pick it up, and then GFS comes back like gangbusters. I said before when they go back and forth like that, but multiple models have shown a storm in the long range, that's when it usually comes together.
 
Storm5 said:
Low 40s and rain for most is a great way to start winter
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The only thing that scares me about that map is the front-end thumping is rain instead of snow. CAD getting quickly eradicated here? If not, then there needs to be a suppliant of cold air. If we are relying on CAD alone, tell me how the GFS comes up with those snow totals?
 
The good news is we can't take the track as modeled seriously this far out and there is time for improvements (of course it could go the other way too). Once inside 120 hours we should have a good idea on the overall 5H setup and players on the field; the NAM will be key for any warm nose once in range.

The main takeaways at this point are that we have a strong signal for a system producing plenty of qpf and sufficient cold air nearby for a winter storm somewhere in the SE to Mid-Atlantic region. We need this to stay suppressed along the Gulf Coast region for a chance; CAD regions as usual may have the best shot here if the HP builds in ahead of the storm or as it starts.
 
My wallet could use a good snowstorm especially one that shuts everything down for atleast two days. I work at an animal hospital and every time it shows I volunteer to stay. I get paid for every minute I'm there even while I'm sleeping. One year I had 48 straight hours on the clock.
 
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