• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

584D6C42-43E4-441F-AFD8-8BD74B8D6DED.png I know, it’s the 84 hour NAM, but I like where it’s headed!:weenie::weenie:
 
Tarheel1 said:
The models can’t handle the pattern change! It’s changing from winter to summer in about 5 days! 48 here today, 70s on Sunday! Models can’t handle the heat!
Click to expand...
I know that's the Truth. We hit 38 yesterday and low of 20 this morning... Saturday is calling for a High of 70...lol
 
That high is strong and if it parks it there, someone getting iced over .That would be a strong wedge .
 
******Note******

Members just a friendly reminder we need to use the banter forum whenever we can. I had to move a few post tonight (even 2 of mine so I need to improve also) to the banter thread. Let’s try to make this forum to stay on topic as much as possible.

Thanks
Patrick
 
Last edited:
This is what the 0z FV3 has so far. There is a high north of the system which is good. The bad, there is a high over Bermuda, which is of course "pumping" warm southerly winds. If that high was off to the NE instead, the FV3 would have a significant winter storm.
bd9d57324fa21533f152ec23d70be8d4.jpg
 
While everyone is focused on the 200+ hour storm, this little guy has been trending a bit better and colder for some areas today. It’s only 144 hours out too and wouldn’t take much of a change to see a nice little snow for NC folks.
upload_2018-11-29_0-55-18.png
upload_2018-11-29_0-56-6.png
 
I wouldn't be shocked at all if 6z in the morning flipped back around and have us a raging ice storm. I've seen this happen many times before this far out.
 
Webberweather53 said:
A 1018 high usually won't get the job done minus the mountains, especially at this time of the year.
Click to expand...

There’s plenty of cold pressing in though, it just all depends on how the 5H setup evolves and timing of the energy. It’s close enough right now that verbatim parts of NC see light snow.
upload_2018-11-29_1-41-50.png
upload_2018-11-29_1-43-26.png
 
snowlover91 said:
There’s plenty of cold pressing in though, it just all depends on how the 5H setup evolves and timing of the energy. It’s close enough right now that verbatim parts of NC see light snow.
View attachment 7733
View attachment 7734
Click to expand...

"Parts of NC" as in the mountains...
You need a bigger cold high east of the Rockies, a 1018 will not get the job done in early December, maybe in January barring that there's a massive and very extensive snow pack to our north w/ snow cover extending down thru the entirety of the mid-Atlantic s.t. even the slightest amount of CAA brings sufficient cold air into the mix. Verbatim the only part of NC that would see snow in that setup are the apps and that's it. Temps are well into the 40s on the Euro for most of NC, the best way to change that is to raise the MSLP to the north & northeast of the storm &/or strengthen the low over the Canadian Maritimes s.t. there's more CAA in New England & Ontario/Quebec before the storm. Seeing a low over Ontario during the event doesn't bode well for this setup
 
Last edited:
Well for tonight the EPS is your friend. The 12z EPS may be a different story...
171d63ff925ff8c17683709c5f63a6e6.jpg


I would put the 500 anomalies up but I am having trouble getting them to load...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
There were several nice looking members on that EPS suite, I'd take any of these 6 solutions although a lot of this is probably IP/ZR in some of the southern & southeastern flanks of the heaviest axis of snow.

View attachment 7741
Click to expand...
Haha look at that Wake Co. gradient!!
 
EPS at 192, definitely trended in our favor with the trough digging deeper and the ridge over Greenland trending stronger. The GEFS on the other hand may have increased spread just by quick gland on the ensemble mean.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd definitely prefer to have a bit more blocking over Alaska & the Bering Sea as well as a deeper vortex in SE Canada before getting more excited about a Miller B/CAD late next week. However, considering we have the right long wave mid-latitude pattern accompanying a southern stream wave in California to get one, I guess beggars can't be choosers, and this isn't half bad imo, we just have to trend in the "right" direction the next 3-4 days or so before this becomes a really legitimate threat (if at all).
View attachment 7708
Click to expand...

Even considering spread w/ range, last night's 0z run took a significant step in the "right" direction I referred to yesterday w/ more Alaskan ridging and a deeper SE Canada trough out in front of our shortwave over California, hence the more wintry looking run overall for the board. While synoptic/mesoscale features are virtually a lost cause to try & predict this far in advance, because planetary waves are larger in scale and tend to evolve more slowly, we're able to more easily grapple w/ their overall evolution at this range and this is what most should primarily focus their attention on until we get into the medium range (day 5-6).

download (39).png
download (40).png
 
Many (myself included) may have spoke too soon wrt canoncial December NINO warmth, the recent burst of subseasonal tropical forcing helped push the westerly momentum in the subtropics into the mid-latitudes and will try to enforce a +EPO/+NAO for a while in/around mid-December favoring large-scale warmth in the CONUS with the warmest anomalies probably in the northern US. It remains to be seen how this westerly momentum will evolve and whether it continues to propagate poleward, disintegrate entirely, etc. I was banking on this westerly momentum remaining confined in the subtropics for a while longer but that's obviously not happening
 
Webberweather53 said:
"Parts of NC" as in the mountains...
You need a bigger cold high east of the Rockies, a 1018 will not get the job done in early December, maybe in January barring that there's a massive and very extensive snow pack to our north w/ snow cover extending down thru the entirety of the mid-Atlantic s.t. even the slightest amount of CAA brings sufficient cold air into the mix. Verbatim the only part of NC that would see snow in that setup are the apps and that's it. Temps are well into the 40s on the Euro for most of NC, the best way to change that is to raise the MSLP to the north & northeast of the storm &/or strengthen the low over the Canadian Maritimes s.t. there's more CAA in New England & Ontario/Quebec before the storm. Seeing a low over Ontario during the event doesn't bode well for this setup
Click to expand...

Verbatim the 00z FV3 was a light snow for areas outside the mountains. There's not much model support for anything right now as some models show very little QPF and others are a bit too warm but it's close enough that if something like the 00Z FV3 happens then areas outside the NC mountains could see some flakes. It's a long shot but since it's about 5-6 days out worth keeping an eye on especially if we get more favorable 5H changes.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Verbatim the 00z FV3 was a light snow for areas outside the mountains. There's not much model support for anything right now as some models show very little QPF and others are a bit too warm but it's close enough that if something like the 00Z FV3 happens then areas outside the NC mountains could see some flakes. It's a long shot but since it's about 5-6 days out worth keeping an eye on especially if we get more favorable 5H changes.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png
Click to expand...

Most guidance suggests this is more likely to be a mid-Atlantic or northeastern US threat and without a significant source of cold air continually being reinforced into the pattern as indicated by the lack of a strong surface high to the north, scattered flurries is the best you could possibly hope for & even then it seems like a stretch outside the mountains and VA border counties.
 
Well well what do ya know, just as the GFS pulls the football the King says not so fast...... I know it's still a ways out there but I'll take the EPS trending in our favor over everything else everyday and twice on Sunday, let's reel one in (especially since Dec may be headed to dumpster fire after this shot)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most guidance suggests this is more likely to be a mid-Atlantic or northeastern US threat and without a significant source of cold air continually being reinforced into the pattern as indicated by the lack of a strong surface high to the north, scattered flurries is the best you could possibly hope for & even then it seems like a stretch outside the mountains and VA border counties.
Click to expand...

Just a few days this was an apps cutter on the models with temps in the 60s so we've seen some positive trends and improvements at 5H. Still a ways to go but even if it delivered flurries to some NC folks outside the mountains I think that would make some on here quite happy :)
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png
 
metwannabe said:
Well well what do ya know, just as the GFS pulls the football the King says not so fast...... I know it's still a ways out there but I'll take the EPS trending in our favor over everything else everyday and twice on Sunday, let's reel one in (especially since Dec may be headed to dumpster fire after this shot)
Click to expand...

Still plenty of time to go on this one but having the EPS trending better is good at least, hopefully the GFS will follow soon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top