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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Lol, H right on top. Sold! Happy hour. I know we're saying how early it is, but I'm getting pretty confident there will be a storm. What falls from the sky in MBY? lol, who knows. Probably cold refreshing rain. It's fun watching the fantasy storm maps over and over though!

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Hilariously erroneous handling of the CAD wedge. I truly don't understand why they run this model beyond truncation. Just a waste of computing resources. Why not just run it out to ten days and then run the ensembles at a higher resolution?

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1300m said:
Hilariously erroneous handling of the CAD wedge. I truly don't understand why they run this model beyond truncation. Just a waste of computing resources. Why not just run it out to ten days and then run the ensembles at a higher resolution?

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Bc what would we do when the weather is boring for ten days?
 
Just some thoughts; I wouldn't say there are any particular soild trends. I think most of us are confident to say there will be a system. At the moment, I think it's more important to see rather the high will "win over" the low for CAD, or if the high will move along with the low, or if the high will move in northwest of the low. If the high comes down NW of the low, it could turn out to be a rain to snow event. It's certainly possible that, with a broad area of a high pressure, the low could shift south which would open the "doors" for colder temps.

Another solution that could play out is that, there could be a high off to NE, and another high coming down off to the NW of the low. If that were to happen, it's possible that it could turn out to be a rain to ice, to a snow event. Snow on top of ice makes it more dangerous than just snow.
 
84A3D132-F0A3-4EE8-B710-13F26BF8A5A3.png No wonder nobody posted the GFSvs3! Dumpster fire!
 
whatalife said:
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Just keep that look under day 7 and I'm all in. I don't recall ever being in a 2-3 inch mean and not being in the ball game during the event. That seems like a pretty legit signal, even at this lead time of something in the CAD areas. But I'm a weenie, so yeah.
 
Can someone post the individual gefs members? I can't remember where to find them
 
I hit my lowest temperature of the season (28) so far this morning. I know that we usually don't have large scale cold outbreaks during El Nino years, but it's kind of late in the season for my location to go below thirty for the first time. Does anyone else think that this year will feature any "vodka cold" outbreaks? I feel like that we are way overdue for such a large scale event in the region.
 
Well, so far the 0z GFS has a different look than it's 18z run. The system is being held back, while that strong high is over the southeastern region by late week next week. The system could turn out as a cold rain to freezing rain, to all snow. We'll shall see how it turns out on this 0z GFS run.
 
I believe we've jumped from an Apps Runner or Miller B like CAD event to a GLC in one run. I'm not even sure this looks like the 12z Euro as that looked like an Apps Runner to me.
 
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