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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Right now the pattern setup we have isn't that unusual IMO. We have transient shots of cool to cold air followed by a warmup, rain and then cooler weather. Wash, rinse and repeat. Fairly seasonal pattern and I don't expect any legitimate chances for winter weather until mid to late December. The good news is snow cover is building to our north and if this continues will be a big help in transporting colder shots of air into our area and allowing for less modification as well.
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Jon said:
Last 3 runs of the Euro EPS, ridge pumping over AK gives way to a trough correcting west and a ridge pumping over the Atlantic. Not the trend you want in the best ensemble model.

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Similar look for the GEFS as well.

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West Atlantic Ridging and Alaska ridging has been the staple of the last 3-4 years. Very similar IMO to long range guidance (in the best case). My confidence in us simply continuing past years pattern is increasing. My hope for a blockbuster blocking regime this year is fading. I know it's early but the reemergence of the WAR is annoying, like it has been forever.

Certainly can do well with a -EPO pattern but it's very hit and miss where timing has to be perfect. Was hoping we would increase the margin of error a bit this winter. We still may, but long range guidance was not what I wanted to see going into December.
 
SnowNiner said:
West Atlantic Ridging and Alaska ridging has been the staple of the last 3-4 years. Very similar IMO to long range guidance (in the best case). My confidence in us simply continuing past years pattern is increasing. My hope for a blockbuster blocking regime this year is fading. I know it's early but the reemergence of the WAR is annoying, like it has been forever.

Certainly can do well with a -EPO pattern but it's very hit and miss where timing has to be perfect. Was hoping we would increase the margin of error a bit this winter. We still may, but long range guidance was not what I wanted to see going into December.
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I think we should expect some variability. I'm not seeing anything that makes me think December (or winter, for that matter) is going to suck. In fact, it's encouraging that we've already seen the ability of the atmosphere to form a true -NAO/block. Most seasonal forecasts I have seen show a warm December. I'm not convinced it's going to turn out that way, though. Either way, there should be enough variability to create chances for at least some of the area to see some winter weather. In fact, we've already had two winter storms in parts of the SE.

It feels like there are some unrealistic expectations set in place of wall to wall blocking, winter storm after winter storm, and frigid cold for the entirety of the next four months. That is just not going to be the case. It just isn't. We'll fight the SE ridge some. We'll see the GOA low some. We'll see the Aleutian ridge some. We'll get some blocking. We'll see dry northwesterly flow some. We'll see the GL low some. We'll see a SW trough some. We'll get some winter weather. We'll see some cold rain. We'll see a few warm periods. We'll see some crappy patterns show up in the LR guidance. We'll see some awesome patterns in the LR guidance. That seems like a reasonable expectation to me. We ought to be grateful that we're entering December not seeing wall to wall heat. In fact, as you pointed out earlier, the groundwork is being laid for winter. And some of the not-so-favorable patterns that have been showing up of late are not the kind that appear to take weeks to fix. Worrying about anything right now is quite premature, IMO.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think we should expect some variability. I'm not seeing anything that makes me think December (or winter, for that matter) is going to suck. In fact, it's encouraging that we've already seen the ability of the atmosphere to form a true -NAO/block. Most seasonal forecasts I have seen show a warm December. I'm not convinced it's going to turn out that way, though. Either way, there should be enough variability to create chances for at least some of the area to see some winter weather. In fact, we've already had two winter storms in parts of the SE.

It feels like there are some unrealistic expectations set in place of wall to wall blocking, winter storm after winter storm, and frigid cold for the entirety of the next four months. That is just not going to be the case. It just isn't. We'll fight the SE ridge some. We'll see the GOA low some. We'll see the Aleutian ridge some. We'll get some blocking. We'll see dry northwesterly flow some. We'll see the GL low some. We'll see a SW trough some. We'll get some winter weather. We'll see some cold rain. We'll see a few warm periods. We'll see some crappy patterns show up in the LR guidance. We'll see some awesome patterns in the LR guidance. That seems like a reasonable expectation to me. We ought to be grateful that we're entering December not seeing wall to wall heat. In fact, as you pointed out earlier, the groundwork is being laid for winter. And some of the not-so-favorable patterns that have been showing up of late are not the kind that appear to take weeks to fix. Worrying about anything right now is quite premature, IMO.
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I don't think December is going to suck either. I'm just starting to think it's not going to set up the great, re-occuring blocking pattern many of us have been hoping for (09-10). I don't think that hope was quite unrealistic IMO considering what's been discussed in long range forecasting, nino, Scandanvian retrograding ridging,etc. But that's fine. We have done well the past few years in an -EPO regime.

Many times, the December pattern sets the stage for the predominate winter pattern. I was just hoping for a predominately -NAO to set up the winter, but that's not what I'm seeing so far. And, I could be completely wrong and Greenland gets blocked up for the rest of winter in 2 weeks! I hope so. But yes, this is just me lowering my overall expectations as you suggest. lol.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think we should expect some variability. I'm not seeing anything that makes me think December (or winter, for that matter) is going to suck. In fact, it's encouraging that we've already seen the ability of the atmosphere to form a true -NAO/block. Most seasonal forecasts I have seen show a warm December. I'm not convinced it's going to turn out that way, though. Either way, there should be enough variability to create chances for at least some of the area to see some winter weather. In fact, we've already had two winter storms in parts of the SE.

It feels like there are some unrealistic expectations set in place of wall to wall blocking, winter storm after winter storm, and frigid cold for the entirety of the next four months. That is just not going to be the case. It just isn't. We'll fight the SE ridge some. We'll see the GOA low some. We'll see the Aleutian ridge some. We'll get some blocking. We'll see dry northwesterly flow some. We'll see the GL low some. We'll see a SW trough some. We'll get some winter weather. We'll see some cold rain. We'll see a few warm periods. We'll see some crappy patterns show up in the LR guidance. We'll see some awesome patterns in the LR guidance. That seems like a reasonable expectation to me. We ought to be grateful that we're entering December not seeing wall to wall heat. In fact, as you pointed out earlier, the groundwork is being laid for winter. And some of the not-so-favorable patterns that have been showing up of late are not the kind that appear to take weeks to fix. Worrying about anything right now is quite premature, IMO.
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Rain Cold said:
I think we should expect some variability. I'm not seeing anything that makes me think December (or winter, for that matter) is going to suck. In fact, it's encouraging that we've already seen the ability of the atmosphere to form a true -NAO/block. Most seasonal forecasts I have seen show a warm December. I'm not convinced it's going to turn out that way, though. Either way, there should be enough variability to create chances for at least some of the area to see some winter weather. In fact, we've already had two winter storms in parts of the SE.

It feels like there are some unrealistic expectations set in place of wall to wall blocking, winter storm after winter storm, and frigid cold for the entirety of the next four months. That is just not going to be the case. It just isn't. We'll fight the SE ridge some. We'll see the GOA low some. We'll see the Aleutian ridge some. We'll get some blocking. We'll see dry northwesterly flow some. We'll see the GL low some. We'll see a SW trough some. We'll get some winter weather. We'll see some cold rain. We'll see a few warm periods. We'll see some crappy patterns show up in the LR guidance. We'll see some awesome patterns in the LR guidance. That seems like a reasonable expectation to me. We ought to be grateful that we're entering December not seeing wall to wall heat. In fact, as you pointed out earlier, the groundwork is being laid for winter. And some of the not-so-favorable patterns that have been showing up of late are not the kind that appear to take weeks to fix. Worrying about anything right now is quite premature, IMO.
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Excellent post! I think this is what we should reasonably expect. The devil is in the details, and exactly who will measure what in their backyards when winter is over. Hopefully, we will be able to get a few chances. There is some luck involved when we are only talking about a short window of opportunity and that it will only snow a few days each winter. Fingers crossed!
 
SnowNiner said:
I don't think December is going to suck either. I'm just starting to think it's not going to set up the great, re-occuring blocking pattern many of us have been hoping for (09-10). I don't think that hope was quite unrealistic IMO considering what's been discussed in long range forecasting, nino, Scandanvian retrograding ridging,etc. But that's fine. We have done well the past few years in an -EPO regime.

Many times, the December pattern sets the stage for the predominate winter pattern. I was just hoping for a predominately -NAO to set up the winter, but that's not what I'm seeing so far. And, I could be completely wrong and Greenland gets blocked up for the rest of winter in 2 weeks! I hope so. But yes, this is just me lowering my overall expectations as you suggest. lol.
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I'll just be happy with any blocking during the winter months, tbh!
 
Rain Cold said:
I think we should expect some variability. I'm not seeing anything that makes me think December (or winter, for that matter) is going to suck. In fact, it's encouraging that we've already seen the ability of the atmosphere to form a true -NAO/block. Most seasonal forecasts I have seen show a warm December. I'm not convinced it's going to turn out that way, though. Either way, there should be enough variability to create chances for at least some of the area to see some winter weather. In fact, we've already had two winter storms in parts of the SE.

It feels like there are some unrealistic expectations set in place of wall to wall blocking, winter storm after winter storm, and frigid cold for the entirety of the next four months. That is just not going to be the case. It just isn't. We'll fight the SE ridge some. We'll see the GOA low some. We'll see the Aleutian ridge some. We'll get some blocking. We'll see dry northwesterly flow some. We'll see the GL low some. We'll see a SW trough some. We'll get some winter weather. We'll see some cold rain. We'll see a few warm periods. We'll see some crappy patterns show up in the LR guidance. We'll see some awesome patterns in the LR guidance. That seems like a reasonable expectation to me. We ought to be grateful that we're entering December not seeing wall to wall heat. In fact, as you pointed out earlier, the groundwork is being laid for winter. And some of the not-so-favorable patterns that have been showing up of late are not the kind that appear to take weeks to fix. Worrying about anything right now is quite premature, IMO.
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Question is, will most on this forum call this a great winter if we get a repeat of 14/15? It was a 2 week wintery pattern for the most part, last half of February had 2 or 3 smaller events with a big event at the end. That's what I am hoping/expecting this winter, similar to what we had last winter, except later into Feb. I will be disappointed if we get another 92/95/05 type winter.

Screen Shot 2018-11-26 at 10.03.15 AM.png Screen Shot 2018-11-26 at 9.59.47 AM.png
 
Kylo said:
Question is, will most on this forum call this a great winter if we get a repeat of 14/15? It was a 2 week wintery pattern for the most part, last half of February had 2 or 3 smaller events with a big event at the end. That's what I am hoping/expecting this winter, similar to what we had last winter, expect later into Feb. I will be disappointed if we get another 92/95/05 type winter.

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Good question. I'm expecting more than a two week stretch of potential this year. So, if that's all we get, I will definitely be disappointed. I think we'll have several cold windows interspersed throughout all winter months. El Nino should fuel frequent precipitation events. Hopefully, there is enough overlap of both cold and precipitation to provide a few winter storms, with a couple of them being legit Miller As.
 
Just to give some perspective on how poorly climate models have performed (and are biased warm), here is the CanSIPS forecast for November compared to what has been observed thus far. The NMME is also just as bad. The way to go is a blend of ensembles inside 10 days, outside of that it's more of an educated guess than anything else.

CanSIPS forecast.
cansips_T2ma_namer_1.png

Observed
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And the NMME forecast.
nmme_T2ma_namer_1.png
 
Kylo said:
Question is, will most on this forum call this a great winter if we get a repeat of 14/15? It was a 2 week wintery pattern for the most part, last half of February had 2 or 3 smaller events with a big event at the end. That's what I am hoping/expecting this winter, similar to what we had last winter, except later into Feb. I will be disappointed if we get another 92/95/05 type winter.

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That would be a huge disappointment With all the hype and predictions for this winter .

Having to wait till late February would be horrible


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Storm5 said:
That would be a huge disappointment With all the hype and predictions for this winter .

Having to wait till late February would be horrible


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I would be shocked if we had to wait that long. Considering the way this month has gone it wouldn't take much to score with an active STJ cranking out the gulf lows the closer we get to winter. Once that snowpack gets established the chances for an overruning event will definitely go up as well.
 
It’s the end of November it’s not even winter yet many of us have had below normal November’s. I mean this is the first time I’ve really seen the leaves change in 2-3 years. I feel like this is about as good of a looking winter as we have gotten in awhile.
 
The first few days of December look very mild and warmer than normal for most of the South. At RDU we could hit 70 on Sunday! Hopefully that is all the warm weather we get this December!
 
06z FV3 has an interesting look between the 6th and the 8th. Gulf Low. Looks like If we could get that first system around hr200 to come further south and bring colder air with it then we might be in business? As it stands it doesnt look great but still very interesting to an amateur like myself
 
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