850’s look decent
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A ton. Firstly you have to learn to read 500mb, secondly learn to read 500mb and thirdly, learn to read 500mb. Oh and anything past 240hrs is as accurate as my one year old drawing on my table.
Fair enough. It’s easier for me to read color maps though. I like pwetty picktures.
Completely understand. You would get a ton more information if would read 500mb. I dont even look at the surface maps except for a quick glance until under a week out.
FV3 drops the hammer and not completely in voodoo at that. First storm chance would come next Tuesday if it were right. Beautiful look from hr192 on.
I get the general idea of what we want to see at 500mb in the winter time. Ridge out west. Eastern trough. Big heights over Greenland/Alaska. What is this called when you have a ridge just west of Alaska? Also it looks like we lose our Greenland block out past hr100 and that causes the east to be a little ridgey until heights rise west of
Alaska?
The W Atlantic ridge is real!
That, but we also lose our western ridge which allows the trough to dig in out west causing ridging in the east. Then you see ridging building back into the east PAC as the Alutian low builds back in which forces the trough in the west east. Not only that, but the ridge builds across the pole which really pulls the cold air southward.
The question would be if the western ridge would be transient or stick around, but in any case that is life in the south and timing is everything.
I’m no expert, but I’m just not seeing monster +PNA ridge, or anything and most were saying they’d rather have that ridge, than a -NAO
Yeah the more I read about it the more it seems +PNA is a bigger driver than -NAO here in the east. It looks a -NAO can bail out the east/SE whenever the PNA goes negative. Seems +PNA is generally associated with an El Niño type of winter but I guess we will find out here in the next 3-4 weeks
At the edge of voodoo, but the Euro has joined the loco group. The question would be is it transient or does it continually reload.
Brent
Member
the end of the Euro is so close here... definitely snow just to the west
when is it gonna be interesting inside like 5 days
when is it gonna be interesting inside like 5 days
Storm5
Member
At the edge of voodoo, but the Euro has joined the loco group. The question would be is it transient or does it continually reload.
00z EPS agrees
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Jon
Member
I’ll take this Euro ensemble member....
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Jon
Member
Last 3 runs of the Euro EPS, ridge pumping over AK gives way to a trough correcting west and a ridge pumping over the Atlantic. Not the trend you want in the best ensemble model.
Similar look for the GEFS as well.
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Similar look for the GEFS as well.
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Kylo
Member
As long as we avoid these train wreck winters for the Dec pattern we should be good.
Uh oh.
Uh oh.
packfan98
Moderator
cyclogent
Member
As we get into early December we'll be entering less favorable phases of MJO, so tend to think we'll be dealing with cutters and transient cold shots.
whatalife
Moderator