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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Euro looks like many early season storms

Cold rain
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SnowNiner said:
Yep, if we could shift the L south 200 miles, and the Atlantic H west 400 miles we'd be gold! Looks like there's some CAD though...Wonder if the EPS is continuing to lock in on this time period.

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Looks like if you want a winter storm you should root for it to come in faster before our high pressure slides away into the sunset.
 
I'd definitely prefer to have a bit more blocking over Alaska & the Bering Sea as well as a deeper vortex in SE Canada before getting more excited about a Miller B/CAD late next week. However, considering we have the right long wave mid-latitude pattern accompanying a southern stream wave in California to get one, I guess beggars can't be choosers, and this isn't half bad imo, we just have to trend in the "right" direction the next 3-4 days or so before this becomes a really legitimate threat (if at all).
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Webberweather53 said:
I'd definitely prefer to have a bit more blocking over Alaska & the Bering Sea as well as a deeper vortex in SE Canada before getting more excited about a Miller B/CAD late next week. However, considering we have the right long wave mid-latitude pattern accompanying a southern stream wave in California to get one, I guess beggars can't be choosers, and this isn't half bad imo, we just have to trend in the "right" direction the next 3-4 days or so before this becomes a really legitimate threat (if at all).
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I agree, it's not that bad of a look considering with it being 10+ days away. The 12z GFS ensemble looks almost identical to the Euro ensemble.
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Kylo said:
Impressive run of the EPS definitely lots of members for TN, western NC into the MA. Several members with hits further south.
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At this range, I'm not sure what else we can ask for from the models at a 10 day lead. Both major ensembles show a gulf storm and some CAD. Probably not cold enough and not enough high pressure to the north, but....I don't know. What do we need to look for for better high placement as the GFS op showed?

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Doesn't CAD take time to figure out on all models? Could be some bouncing around as to how strong and placement of the high for a bit.
 
GaStorm said:
Doesn't CAD take time to figure out on all models? Could be some bouncing around as to how strong and placement of the high for a bit.
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Models sometimes do take sometime to catch onto CAD events. Sometimes they don't show anything till 24-48 hrs prior of the event (or 12hrs) sometimes they don't project any frozen precip. with CAD. If I recall, back on Jan. 25, 2013, the models did a poor job with that CAD event. Keep in mind, with this upcoming possible winter event, it may not be a CAD event.
 
WxWatch said:
Models sometimes do take sometime to catch onto CAD events. Sometimes they don't show anything till 24-48 hrs prior of the event (or 12hrs) sometimes they don't project any frozen precip. with CAD. If I recall, back on Jan. 25, 2013, the models did a poor job with that CAD event. Keep in mind, with this upcoming possible winter event, it may not be a CAD event.
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It's encouraging to see the Euro and GFS still show a storm with cold air close by. Once it gets within 5 days that will be key on what we are looking at as far as CAD.
 
Well, 2 for 2 ensemble wise. EPS stronger with the ridge, farther south and deeper with the s/w and much stronger with the ridging over Greenland at hr 192. Still ways to go, but it's what you want.
 
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Storm5 said:
It’s gonna be a good lesson for all as we head towards winter when this all falls apart on the models in 3-4 days


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Last year it seems we got lucky and the winter events all trended in our favor inside day 5. Question is, do we feel lucky.
 
Storm5 said:
It’s gonna be a good lesson for all as we head towards winter when this all falls apart on the models in 3-4 days


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Right now this thing that everyone calls a "potential" isn't a thing to me. It doesn't exist. We're just chasing Bigfoot. I think we have to get something within 180 hours to even call it a potential. One or two days isn't enough for consistency. Needs to be 3 or more.
 
Here is the 12 eps mean . Not all that impressive. Skewed by a few big members Find your location and see how you made out this run . It’s so far out it does not matter
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