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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Wondering whether to put my money on the GEFS or the EPS
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We have to remember, if the GEFS shows what we want and the EPS doesn't. Go with the EPS. If the EPS shows what we want and the GEFS does, go with the GEFS. Then if everything but the JMA shows a snow storm, go with the JMA.
 
Storm5 said:
Just some slight changes on the 06z FV3 vs the 00z run lol. Maybe one day we can get a model that holds the same look for 6 hours

00z
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06z
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Not at 240+ hours haha. Anything in a single model run beyond 7 days (honestly even 5 days) out is just too unreliable to be counting on for specifics beyond the large scale pattern, and even then it's much better to just look at the ensembles. It's fun to look at and say well, if the pattern does x, y and z then this could happen and compare runs, but hoping to reel in a storm 240+ hours with no major changes really isn't being realistic. Sure a model could show a storm during the 12/8 to 12/10 time frame now, completely lose it, and then bring it back around 5 days out, but it'll likely look different and have different players involved.
 
Member #12 would make most happy on there. I think it would be great if it atleast snows down TN/VA, would feel like that would be a good omen for the rest of winter. The mid-atlantic area got the shaft last winter, would be good to see them get hit.

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1300m said:
Not at 240+ hours haha. Anything in a single model run beyond 7 days (honestly even 5 days) out is just too unreliable to be counting on for specifics beyond the large scale pattern, and even then it's much better to just look at the ensembles. It's fun to look at and say well, if the pattern does x, y and z then this could happen and compare runs, but hoping to reel in a storm 240+ hours with no major changes really isn't being realistic. Sure a model could show a storm during the 12/8 to 12/10 time frame now, completely lose it, and then bring it back around 5 days out, but it'll likely look different and have different players involved.
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Yeah usually my rule of thumb is to get the storm inside 144 hours and then start looking at it. Outside of that the key features change way too much run to run and it's going to be a long winter if we watch every fantasy storm the GFS and FV3 spit out haha.
 
Kylo said:
EPS v/s GEFS differences at day 10. I like the GEFS better :)

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Nice to see you guys talking about Dec 9th already. I came here to post this, EPS trends over the last few runs....it’s the best look we’ve had. Of course it could go inland depending on how it trends inside Day 10 but I like it for now! Would be awesome to get a December snow.
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Kylo said:
Member #12 would make most happy on there. I think it would be great if it atleast snows down TN/VA, would feel like that would be a good omen for the rest of winter. The mid-atlantic area got the shaft last winter, would be good to see them get hit.

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Man oh man if member 12 was to ever verify... Honestly I wouldn't ask for snow for the rest of winter... Hold on I take that back I'm a snow weenie I most definitely would want more hell
 
Storm5 said:
Just some slight changes on the 06z FV3 vs the 00z run lol. Maybe one day we can get a model that holds the same look for 6 hours



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Lol at 276 hours? Good luck!
 
Storm5 said:
No not at 276 I just posted that as an example . In general . The US models are sh$$. Maybe I should return all the 12 days of Christmas gifts and donate the money to improving the us models


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Haha true! Hey, did you notice the renewal of the -NAO on both the 0z and 6z Fake Version? It is really nice to see that showing up again. Hopefully, it's real. The Pacific looks like a pile of monkey crap in the LR, though. I hope we don't spend all month waiting for it to come into shape.
 
Kylo said:
Member #12 would make most happy on there. I think it would be great if it atleast snows down TN/VA, would feel like that would be a good omen for the rest of winter. The mid-atlantic area got the shaft last winter, would be good to see them get hit.

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Can't see MBY in these frames, but I can extrapolate some decent snow totals for my area in #12. Lock it in!

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12z has northern energy that’s digging the same time our system is moving in . Should help make it cooler vs previous runs . But regardless it’s still at day 10
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Solid CAD signal. HP placement would be the key with a favorable GL trackView attachment 7704
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That's just beautiful positioning of the low and high pressures IMO. The high is a good strength and is just anchored in the NE, doesn't really move. Too bad it'll be gone this afternoon. Maybe it'll get better! lol.

Hopefully we can milk something out of this timeframe because after that I think we may be real quiet for a while until the pacific can and hopefully reshuffle.
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