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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

FV3 gonna try again and is a little faster this run
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Storm5 said:
FV3 gonna try again and is a little faster this run
e5fc12a011d47c422a2de93e945fe96e.png



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Much faster more in line with the gfs . Big storm . Rain for most this run but there are clean signs for an eastern us storm late next week


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NWMSGuy said:
Since I haven't been watching the models very closely, how has the SER been modeled so far this fall season compared to verification?
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It seems like models have been trying to get a little “ridge happy” in the long range to no avail so far. Someone correct me if I’m wrong
Kylo said:
Mack special.

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bullseye over mi casa. What could go wrong
 
Storm5 said:
What are you new to the weather boards ??? This is what we do for the next three months . It’s not being desperate, it’s being a weenie


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And to be fair, the ensembles are hinting at this timeframe. So each run that shows, we hug. Each run that doesn't we toss. Lol. Rinse repeat till april.
 
FWIW (virtually nothing) the H5 setup between the 18z GEFS and GFS are pretty similar around D10 to D12. Basically suggests that the GFS solution isn't way out in left field from it's ensembles.

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Just need a stronger/colder high pressure to the north of the storm for some suppression to get us Gulf Coasters in the happy zone. I guess winter wx has to start somewhere in the south though.
 
EL NINO HAS PEAKED. Per ventrice. Guess we have a basin wide modeki. And while everyone watches the Atlantic, Nao. Its all about the EPO, how that behaves next 100 days will determine if we achieve glory or wet in the bed
 
Jessy89 said:
Just a question can it snow on the 546 line? I always here you need 540 for snow
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Yep it can in certain setups. I’ve also seen rain in areas under the 540 and 534dm lines too. My favorite tool to use inside 120 hours are soundings to analyze the profile to see what p-type is supported. Inside 84 hours the NAM is great at picking up on warm air aloft that often causes mixing issues.
 
If that winter system verifies that we're watching, it would be the 2nd winter event in a row for early December. Remember last year in early December around the 6th-10th(?) time frame? I'm not saying it will be the same, it's just interesting that there could be a winter system around the same dates as of last year.
(Thank you for approving my account by the way!)
 
WxWatch said:
If that winter system verifies that we're watching, it would be the 2nd winter event in a row for early December. Remember last year in early December around the 6th-10th(?) time frame? I'm not saying it will be the same, it's just interesting that there could be a winter system around the same dates as of last year.
(Thank you for approving my account by the way!)
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I also hope that we all get a December 8-10 2017 redux. By the way, welcome to the board!
 
Well we will know here in about a hour if the GFS Loves us or wants to give us the Heartbreak.... Lol
 
After that snow last December, I'll gladly take another helping of it this December should it come to fruition. While I highly doubt it would amount to the foot or so that fell across parts of North and West GA again, any snow in December is a absolute treat. This will be interesting to watch for sure. If I am not mistaken, last years storm really didn't even get in the forecast until the night before of as far as the high amounts go, most were just calling for an inch or so and some a few days prior said zero chance of any snow. I clearly remember David Chandley saying a day or two before the storm hit that there would be zero snow and refused to discuss it on a facebook live. lol. Yet, 2 days later, parts of his viewing area had a foot.
 
MBell said:
After that snow last December, I'll gladly take another helping of it this December should it come to fruition. While I highly doubt it would amount to the foot or so that fell across parts of North and West GA again, any snow in December is a absolute treat. This will be interesting to watch for sure. If I am not mistaken, last years storm really didn't even get in the forecast until the night before of as far as the high amounts go, most were just calling for an inch or so and some a few days prior said zero chance of any snow. I clearly remember David Chandley saying a day or two before the storm hit that there would be zero snow and refused to discuss it on a facebook live. lol. Yet, 2 days later, parts of his viewing area had a foot.
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The meteorologist in my area is Chris justice. I like him he usually tells you about any chance of snow and is very honest. He seems to sometimes actually call for to much rather then say it’s not possible.
 
Gonna be a big storm on the 00z gfs but it’s gonna be too warm for most as the northern branch is lifting NE ahead of the storm .


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Looks like we have a system developing a little bit faster at hour 216. Let’s see if the faster solution helps here in the next few frames.
 
It’s has a good track for the low pressure. We just got to have a little more northern stream to work with it. Just a little more colder and a lot of people would big for a big hit on here. IMO.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looking at H5 00z wasn’t that much different than 18z? What did I miss?
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If I am reading this correctly. Trying to learn something new this year. We had more of a northern stream on 12z and 18z model run then the 0z. It wouldn’t take much to get it in the right direction. Heck it’s 10 days away. So more then enough time for things to change for better. Going to attach picture of what I think happen. Someone please correct me if I am wrong..

New run less norther stream.
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12z more northern stream
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