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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Yeah that FV3 look is pretty good as a pattern in general. I didn't look at more than temps (went to meteostar) but based on them I think the GFS would look good too...just no systems.

problem is it's long range...
 
It’s going to be cold. Just need a gulf low at the right time. To many cutters right now
 
... and I only threw it up there to make a point ... ;)

I'll add some more. Even if it happens by dumb luck the CFS is correct with general warmth 12/22/18-1/4/19, that is only a 10 day period and could easily end up just being a temporary thaw between two cold periods as practically no winter hasn't had warm periods. It can't stay cold every single day of the winter even in a frigid one. Just look back at history.
 
I'll add some more. Even if it happens by dumb luck the CFS is correct with general warmth 12/22/18-1/4/19, that is only a 10 day period and could easily end up just being a temporary thaw between two cold periods as practically no winter hasn't had warm periods. It can't stay cold every single day of the winter even in a frigid one.
Different point, but a very good one ... :cool:
 
Oh we know all about the CFS. I believe it can't forecast anything past a week or so with much skill lol.
++NAO through much of December. Ouch

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