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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

whatalife said:
Here’s my fantasy storm
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Textbook. This would be a nice thump verbatim for the Carolinas. That HP is strong, in a good spot, and isn’t transient for a change. No
GLL either. Sadly, we will probably lose this look at 00z
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
View attachment 7625Here is the 0z run fantasy snow at 372... I'm curious to see if the Fv-3 GFS 0z run still shows a fantasy storm around the same time frame
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As much as I don’t want to say it. 0z gfs brought us back to reality. That’s the ole cold air chasing moisture scenario. But don’t worry it be different next run. I be glad when we actually get a threat inside 7-10 days.
 
DarkKnight said:
As much as I don’t want to say it. 0z gfs brought us back to reality. That’s the ole cold air chasing moisture scenario. But don’t worry it be different next run. I be glad when we actually get a threat inside 7-10 days.
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fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_61 (1).png Yea definitely a different solution on the Fv3-gfs 0z run... I'm still holding out hope that we in the south can get a snowstorm like what the Midwest is getting today someday in the near future... I'm not giving up on hope
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
View attachment 7627 Yea definitely a different solution on the Fv3-gfs 0z run... I'm still holding out hope that we in the south can get a snowstorm like what the Midwest is getting today someday in the near future... I'm not giving up on hope
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I wouldn’t be too worried. Our best climatological months for snow is January and February. So anything in December would be a bonus. It was nice to have a thanksgiving with seasonal temps.
 
While we're waiting on the snow, it looks likely we'll have warmer temps, heavy rain, wind, and some thunderstorms next weekend. The Euro and GFS evolve things differently but both feature 850 winds >64 knots over eastern AR, western TN, and northern MS on Saturday along with high shear values. Hello cool-season HSLC severe threat with a developing QLCS. The SPC hasn't outlined any risk areas just yet but something to watch as we get closer.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Textbook. This would be a nice thump verbatim for the Carolinas. That HP is strong, in a good spot, and isn’t transient for a change. No
GLL either. Sadly, we will probably lose this look at 00z
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Poof! Like a fart in the wind! Back to normal, cutter after cutter!
 
Storm5 said:
The pacific is a mess . Gonna have to get that cleaned up before we start getting that special feeling


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Its a mess and models haven't been that great. EPS moved toward what GEFS has been showing. Still hoping one of these times we will get a trailing wave after a cutter with just enough cold air around to maybe see some December flakes.

Kansas City averages 18" of snow a year and they are getting a blizzard before Dec 1 even hits. Hopefully stuff like that keeps up for places south/east.

EPStrend.gif
 
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NoSnowATL said:
Question, are cutters normal for this time of year? I feel like they are but not 100% sure.
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I think we are in a good spot and things should evolve into a good pattern for the SE. Parts of the SE have already had 2 icing events. Hopefully that’s also a good sign as we move forward into winter.


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Kylo said:
Its a mess and models haven't been that great. EPS moved toward what GEFS has been showing. Still hoping one of these times we will get a trailing wave after a cutter with just enough cold air around to maybe see some December flakes.

Kansas City average 18" of snow a year and they are getting a blizzard before Dec 1 even hits. Hopefully stuff like that keeps up places south/east.

View attachment 7630
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Yeah there's ~ 40-45 dBz on radar in southeastern Iowa and it's snowing. That's at least 4-5"/hr assuming 10:1 ratios. Oof
 
whatalife said:
I think we are in a good spot and things should evolve into a good pattern for the SE. Parts of the SE have already had 2 icing events. Hopefully that’s also a good sign as we move forward into winter.


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Yeah getting 2 ice events even in the western piedmont and mountains of NC by mid December is pretty impressive in its own right but before December is rare-very rare as far as I can tell.
 
Winter is here. FV3 means business in the LR. We’ve got water coming out of both sides of the tub. After the reload the hammer drops. Don’t forget to pay your power and natural gas billE1335046-DA90-4852-AF28-228477989EA0.png
 
DarkKnight said:
Don’t look at the 12z gfs for snow lovers. It’s Ugly. Lol
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Lol, when is December not ugly for snow lovers in the South? Maybe 2010 or for parts of the Deep South, 2017.

I want to be hopeful but realistically any December measurable snowfall here is a bonus.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Winter is here. FV3 means business in the LR. We’ve got water coming out of both sides of the tub. After the reload the hammer drops. Don’t forget to pay your power and natural gas billView attachment 7631
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Better get your knickers out in Europe!! All I see!? There’s no way of transport that from Canada, to down here! Fill up with Petrol, refill the bathtub! It sloshed all out in Europe, like every winter!
 
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