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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

The Dec 5th storm, looks as close as the 9th storm!? A few tweaks, we are $$
 
well even a rain event here would be news, been very dry this month after the rain never seemed to end in September/October :rolleyes:
 
To me this thing is still so far out for the GFS it doesn’t know if it wants to run, cut, or become a GL and take a Miller A track.
DarkKnight said:
Hate to say it. Just little to warm. But signal are there for something. View attachment 7690
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that GL track is money. Maybe we need to get that low entering SoCal trending further south?
 
Just my observation, the track of the low on the GFS the past few runs has been pretty consistent through the northern part of the gulf/coastal area.
 
DarkKnight said:
If I am reading this correctly. Trying to learn something new this year. We had more of a northern stream on 12z and 18z model run then the 0z. It wouldn’t take much to get it in the right direction. Heck it’s 10 days away. So more then enough time for things to change for better. Going to attach picture of what I think happen. Someone please correct me if I am wrong..

New run less norther stream.
View attachment 7693

12z more northern stream
View attachment 7694
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Ok, but I thought the NS always hurt our snow chances. Isn’t that what messes up our STJ and causes storms to cut?
 
That New Orleans to Charleston track of that low is no bueno for this area. We need that low tracking more eastward and exiting the coast at least south of Savannah. Hoping for a couple of Miller A's just like that this winter.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Ok, but I thought the NS always hurt our snow chances. Isn’t that what messes up our STJ and causes storms to cut?
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I think separation is the key! You need the N stream to be ahead of the S stream, to get the cold air established. But it’s a fine line, if the N stream is too strong , the cold air will crush the S stream. Or if N stream moves out too fast, it takes away the cold! That’s where blocking and the -NAO helps, to keep the cold locked in longer
 
DarkKnight said:
Hey tarheel. We just about 140 hours from what the nam has to say on this. LMBO!!! :weenie::weenie::weenie:
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I love the long range NAM! It’s nailed the thermal profile in a lot of our winter storms lately! I look at it to see how much sleet and rain I’m gonna get, when forecast calls for 3-6” of snow!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I love the long range NAM! It’s nailed the thermal profile in a lot of our winter storms lately! I look at it to see how much sleet and rain I’m gonna get, when forecast calls for 3-6” of snow!
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Yea no kidding. Gotta give it credit. It nailed last December storm. Would like for it to get a upgrade kinda like the gfs is getting.
 
One of the reasons why the 0z GFS is warmer than the 18z is because, the HP pushes ahead of the system to the northeast. The HP needs to move along with the low to provide the cold dense air for snow, like what the 18z GFS projected. Also, the 0z GFS puts the low further north, which WAA would be taking over.
 
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WxWatch said:
One of the reasons why the 0z GFS is warmer than the 18z is because, the HP pushes ahead of the system to the northeast. The HP needs to move along with the low to provide the cold dense air for snow, like what the 18z GFS projected. Also, the 0z GFS puts the low a further north, which WAA would be taking over.
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Oh yea, WAA is our worst enemy.
Btw, welcome to forum!! Love it when our new forum members comes on in and join the conversation. :)
 
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Why can’t we have a winter with no Northern Stream..just Energy diving down out of
Canada meeting up with energy riding our STJ
 
Fv3 crazy run as well, there are some more members on 0z gefs that brings a winterstorm to the southeast.
 
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_48.png
 
That FV3 run is cash money. Exactly the look we’re looking for. We don’t want it to flare up over OK or AR and push East. We want it to flare up over a oil rig in the middle of the GOM and push ENE. Ok bed time. I’m all nerded out for tonight
 
DarkKnight said:
Oh yea, WAA is our worst enemy.
Btw, welcome to forum!! Love it when our new forum members comes on in and join the conversation. :)
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Darknight due you think that we may still have a legitimate chance that we may get a storm around the December 8-10 because for the past few days or so the fv3-gfs been showing a storm consistently..
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Darknight due you think that we may still have a legitimate chance that we may get a storm around the December 8-10 because for the past few days or so the fv3-gfs been showing a storm consistently..
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Oh yea, I definitely think it’s a good chance. I would lean towards a mid-south more then a Deep South storm. But that could very well change in the next model run.
 
Just some slight changes on the 06z FV3 vs the 00z run lol. Maybe one day we can get a model that holds the same look for 6 hours

00z
636862169027d1d343151987981efbc9.png


06z
db0845f0e5534ccaebb31db9ec139a24.png



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