ForsythSnow
Moderator
Quite a CAD signal on the GEFS.
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That would be a major winter storm for the entire Piedmont of NC and northern and western SC. Looks very icy.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The key, if there is any at this lead time is, the strength and position of the high for the CAD ! A 1035-1040 over NY, will definitely get the job done into the W Carolinas! That’s the first run I’ve seen that! Let’s keep it up!
The 12z FV3 has the system, not quite cold enough though to support widespread snow. Some CAD going on. This will change!
Facts. Good snow cover up that way as well
FV3 has a storm. HP is more transient. Not ideal. Does our current pattern favor a stationary HP or more of a transient one?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I would gladly take a deep & cold CAD event over a miller A coastal cyclone every day of the week in the Charlotte area. The deepest/strongest cold air damming events (Dec 15-18 1930, Feb 12-13 2014, etc) have produced upwards of 10-12" of snow in Charlotte before the inevitable changeover to sleet & freezing rain occurred. Tbh, it's hard to find amounts like that in/around Charlotte for a beefy coastal cyclone. When they do occur here, usually the heaviest axis of snow skirts just to the NW or to the east of the city.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Has the system much colder than the GFS and is setup for snow in the onset for N GA, TN, Upstate SC and NC.The 12z FV3 has the system, not quite cold enough though to support widespread snow. Some CAD going on. This will change!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Add onto the last post. Here's the clown map.
Jessy89
Member
Solid 1-2 inches in north Georgia upstate sc before rain melts it away. That be a win this early in DecemberAdd onto the last post. Here's the clown map.
If we go on track record so far with 2 ice storms already this one may trend better with time. Don't think anyone expected even the mountains to have that much action in November! I will take pattern persistence over model madness any day! 
Good one, GFS.
GFS and FV3 aren’t all that different at 12z with the setup. Main difference I see is HP strength and position. FV3 is weaker and more transient
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Any area that is not NW of Birmingham or N of Atlanta in that map is a mystery to me why it even shows such heavy snow. The N GA part makes sense but of course why over analyze a clown map 11 days out that'll be different in 6 hours.
NoSnowATL
Member
Finally a clown map that shows snow in Alabama and Georgia and not just that yankee state NC. ( j/k my northern friends)
B
Brick Tamland
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Time for that NE trend now.
Eh, I don't think you'd like the north trend, because it's already close. The next slide on the precip map (after TT's snow map runs out) does show snow in NC but it changes over to rain.
It's seeing the future of what it will show 6hrs away.
NoSnowATL
Member
Haha I thought that would get a reaction...Careful.....
The snow amounts are not accurate on the FV3. Never the less, it's fun to look at.
The GEFS actually trended better for a storm. Ridge out west is stronger and keeps the s/w more positive and would allow it to dig farther south. So positive there, if we could only get the NO bots on board.
whatalife
Moderator
The EPS has trended a little more towards the GEFS...So that’s a positive...
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snowlover91
Member
At this stage the GEFS and EPS is the way to go for picking up on a storm signal. The OP runs won't really be useful until we get inside 144 hours out but seeing the GEFS trend better and EPS too is a solid step.
Kylo
Member
Hey, everyone may have forgotten, but last years blockbuster came out of no where, and didn't even look like a big deal until two days out. Who knows, maybe we can get lucky, wouldn't be the first time we've threaded the needle.
SnowNiner
Member
I'd like to see more high pressure modeled on the ensembles in the CAD regions in the NE. That's not there it seems and that's really the whole deal IMO. The 12Z operational had a beauty banana like high, but it doesn't seem to match its ensembles. I could be reading it wrong though...
I never really like the 567 height line over top of me in winter storms. But we have to take what we get, I guess.
Yeah, I don't like it either. I want to see the 558dm line sitting across central AL.
I don't know. A CAD high is good for the Carolinas, but for a Miller A snow storm, I want it over the Midwest and pushing the cold air over the snow pack. Then the right track of the system will have a shot with a good cold air source for CAA.
When is that from?
December 8 and 9, 2017
NoSnowATL
Member
Last year, the storm East Georgia wants to forget.
Rosie
Member
No power for over 24 hours! It was beautiful
SnowNiner
Member
Yep, if we could shift the L south 200 miles, and the Atlantic H west 400 miles we'd be gold! Looks like there's some CAD though...Wonder if the EPS is continuing to lock in on this time period.
I'm just happy both major models have a storm to work with at the same time that far out.