Perfect placement for a low for a southern snow.
It trends to jump on next frame and go back where it should on the last frame.
It trends to jump on next frame and go back where it should on the last frame.
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Here comes another threat. Hour 288
The one behind it , is even better!
Kylo
Member
18z GFS says no way we can miss all these waves.
Yes, defitntely going to have a few chances with we can get everything to line up just right. Going to be a lot of fun.
dsaur
Member
Sure hope Goofy remembers that pattern look in Jan and Feb when the odds are much better climo wise. But get the timing and anything can happen at any time. Sure enjoyed the cad, and today was great too, with the wind backed down. I purely love me some overcast in Nov. Feels like winter ought to feel, even when it's not overly cold.
Why does anyone believe anything the GFS says past about day 7 and especially past day 10? (not just talking about this 18Z). Look at how cold it now is vs the SE warmth that was shown just a couple of days ago on most runs. It clearly has had the warmest bias of any of the major models. So, those warm runs turning colder is not a surprise.
For that matter, any details, especially about storms, past about day 7 on most runs of operational models should be taken with a grain. But the GFS has been extra horrible recently.
For that matter, any details, especially about storms, past about day 7 on most runs of operational models should be taken with a grain. But the GFS has been extra horrible recently.
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I don’t believe anything the GFS says within 5 days. Just throught I would share some nice imagine on happy hour GFS.
Jon
Member
Yeah check out the 850mb NH temperature verification scores.... 0.39 at Day 10. Yikes.
It only gets somewhat decent by Day 6
We can’t trust any operational outside of Day 5 really, and even then things change so frequently with new data... we just aren’t there yet.
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NoSnowATL
Member
Keep posting them, we need something to look at in the down time while we wait and wait and wait....
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Good to see fantasy storms showing up, even if they have little to no chance of verifying.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a map of the ice storm that affected the far western piedmont and parts of the mountains late last night & this morning. Lots of reports of downed trees and power lines just east of Asheville. This is already the 2nd significant ice storm of the winter season in western NC and it's only November.
Don’t know how you can’t like the last few frames of the 18z GFS.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Maybe fantasy storms because they are so far out. But if they keep showing up, that is a good sign. Eventually we will see a so-called fantasy storm show up 10 days out, go away, and then pop up again within 5 days. That happens frequently when we do eventually get a winter storm. The fact that the models keep showing something now for the first part of December is a good sign to me.
whatalife
Moderator
Here’s my fantasy storm 
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Round Oak Weather
Member
Why’s the FV3 always show those storms at 6z and 18z I want to see the pretty maps on pivotal and they only have 0z and 12z lolHere’s my fantasy storm
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it gets u in the winter spiritKylo
Member
Maybe the GEFS is correct with a blocky pattern. Solar, favorable QBO, nino all point to potential winter blockiness. Little odd seeing a stout Aleutian ridge in a nino though.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Here is the 0z run fantasy snow at 372... I'm curious to see if the Fv-3 GFS 0z run still shows a fantasy storm around the same time frame
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