• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

1300m said:
D10 ensembles look like this and folks are fretting. I'm confused.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.png


gfs-ens_T850a_nhem_40.png


ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png


ecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.png
Click to expand...

You and me both. Its been a cold November and Ive already seen snow which is already more than some winters.
 
1300m said:
I mean my goodness, that's just a few adjustments away from being pure gold and with lots of cold on our side of the pole....in early December!
Click to expand...
No kidding. Folks are looking at the weeklies and day 16 18Z GFS and lamenting the winter going to pot and not paying attention to wintry looking op runs and ensembles within day 10. LOLZ
 
1300m said:
I mean my goodness, that's just a few adjustments away from being pure gold and with lots of cold on our side of the pole....in early December!
Click to expand...
All of our best storms need a FEW adjustments! I’m all in!
 
Arcc said:
Thats ugly? Boy our expectations are through the roof crazy.
Click to expand...

Well Xmas week has +EPO/+AO/+NAO. First week of Jan has a GOA ridge and SER. That’s fairly ugly. It’s the weeklies so it will probably be wrong but let’s see how it ends up.
 
Kylo said:
Well Xmas week has +EPO/+AO/+NAO. First week of Jan has a GOA ridge and SER. That’s fairly ugly. It’s the weeklies so it will probably be wrong but let’s see how it ends up.
Click to expand...

I see higher heights anomoly wise on the east coast, but the country is still doninated by a broad trough centered in the Midwest. Even with the smoothing you can still see a west coast ridge. To be honest, that looks seasonal at worst.
 
This is what EPS had 3 days ago for 5 day period ending Dec 8th.

55AC1174-9B56-48AF-9BD8-9D5B081D0A2C.png

Today’s 12z run has this. So yeah, EPS is struggling big time with the pac. Still 7 days away but GEFS had a better handle.

F943AED4-F1F6-47DA-8E46-2AB3D91D3997.png
 
Not a bad trend at all in the longer range. Alutian low trending stronger along with the western ridge.
 

Attachments

  • gfs_z500a_namer_fh252_trend.gif
    gfs_z500a_namer_fh252_trend.gif
    1.1 MB · Views: 39
CF06CC05-2EC2-4BC3-9B2E-6633DA4BDA68.png It’s baaaaaaaaack!
 
The 6z GEFS is cold and it stays cold well into voodoo land. Western ridge signal is there until the very end of the run. Trough looks favorable for a stormy pattern. Probably a lot of borderline events because it doesn't scream bone crushing cold, which is a good thing. The SE will score if we hold this pattern into late December/Early Jan with good snow pack to the NW.
 
Arcc said:
The 6z GEFS is cold and it stays cold well into voodoo land. Western ridge signal is there until the very end of the run. Trough looks favorable for a stormy pattern. Probably a lot of borderline events because it doesn't scream bone crushing cold, which is a good thing. The SE will score if we hold this pattern into late December/Early Jan with good snow pack to the NW.
Click to expand...
I like the 8th-10th time frame for someone on here to get an early Christmas gift.... 6z GEFS didn't look bad at all
 
metwannabe said:
Oh dear Lord please let this track verify
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png
Click to expand...
That track sucks out loud for folks South and East. It’s a raging rainstorm followed by low 20’s on the backside. Temps don’t get above 40 for the following 2 days. It’s a complete nightmare, and one that we’re used to :(
 
whatalife said:
FV3 says to warm for everyone...It’s coming in a little slower then the GFS...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It looked a little funky. It appeared to totally stall and dampen out, and then reappeared a day later. We need to get it under the 10 day mark and see what it looks like. It appears to be a very marginal setup right now.
 
packfan98 said:
It looked a little funky. It appeared to totally stall and dampen out, and then reappeared a day later. We need to get it under the 10 day mark and see what it looks like. It appears to be a very marginal setup right now.
Click to expand...

I totally agree...And until we see some support from the Euro these solutions been very little...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
FV3 says to warm for everyone...It’s coming in a little slower then the GFS...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

packfan98 said:
It looked a little funky. It appeared to totally stall and dampen out, and then reappeared a day later. We need to get it under the 10 day mark and see what it looks like. It appears to be a very marginal setup right now.
Click to expand...

Y'all fret over the littlest things.... ;)
 
Looks like some may have a shot before the 20th or so but I like my earlier forecast of a warm up of about 1-2 weeks at Christmas time. I base this off the EPS showing the warm water SW off the coast of Alaska moving over Alaska changing the overall pattern over NAMER
 
metwannabe said:
Oh dear Lord please let this track verify
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png
Click to expand...

This may be a legit threat. The GFS wants to launch the western ridge eastward behind this system. However it has been trying to do this for a while, only to delay it and keep it west. You can see this if you watch the model trend.

If the ridge stays in place it will keep this farther south and colder. Someone may get a early present again.
 
Arcc said:
12z GEFS is cold for the SE from hr192 until a a frame or two before it ends. While that is far voodoo, we may have the west coast ridge setting in. If that is correct and the GEFS is the norm for most of winter, buckle up.
Click to expand...

Like you said the GEFS does warm up the conus by end of run but what it has modeled looks promising thereafter. Blocking is legit.

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height Anom 384 (1).png GEFS-AO.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top