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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

18z is even warmer! Trending in the wrong direction!! Must , stop. Looking ... at.... Op .....Runs!!
The 2m anomalies looked to be colder in total on the GFS I may be wrong tho. Also I know we diss the FV3 but someone posted something the other day showing its accuracy and in the short mid and long range it was close to the Euro and the gfs was almost the worst
 
They look like hell . But the weeklies suck . They will look 100 percent different Thursday

If they were cold I would still say the suck . Been saying it for years


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They look like hell . But the weeklies suck . They will look 100 percent different Thursday


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You are right about them being different. They got even warmer since their last run. Complete trash.


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Let’s see how Weeklies verify. Xmas week and first week of 2019.

But yeah, it’s U G L Y

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Christ almighty. All I know is we have had a favorable pattern and cold temps for several weeks now and you would think this would be rinse, wash, repeat kind of deal just like every single other winter we’ve ever known. Slow and steady, people. Slow and steady
 
People need to realize we are in late November and most of our snows don’t come until January or February. I’m not sure why everyone here is jumping off a cliff based on the weeklies or monthly models when their verification has been absolutely horrible and they have no consistency. Recent ninos have favored a seasonal to warm December here in the SE and the sustained cold will likely set in by late December to early January.
 
Past 3 winters have been AN for the southeast. We may suck but we don’t suck bad enough to go 4 years in a row.

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Call us Carolina Gamecocks, we go 0-5, like nobody’s business, against Clemsux! I’m looking forward to a warm December! I can get my lawn well manicured , for the amazing Jan/Feb snows we have coming!
 
D10 ensembles look like this and folks are fretting. I'm confused.

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ecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.png
 
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