Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

[Round Oak Weather]

Strike up the band for the Euro Control...Take w/a grain of salt

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Needs to come into Georgia just a bit more

 

[NoSnowATL]

Needs to come into Georgia just a bit more

Believe in the West West trend!

 

[TheBatman]

Let’s see if the ole 18z gfs throws us a bone for gobbler day. We will know in a few minutes.

 

[Arcc]

Really not a bad look at the end of the run on the Euro.

 

[Tarheel1]

Let’s see if the ole 18z gfs throws us a bone for gobbler day. We will know in a few minutes.

Here it is! 384 GFS, still waiting on that pattern change! If this is what you get with blocking, I’m ready for it to be over!

 

[Tarheel1]

Endless cutters, beginning to end! 18z , we toss

 

[Ilovesnow28]

fv3-gfs at 384 hours ugh

 

[Jon]

Just about every recent gfs op run is warm in the 11-15 for the SE US and much of the country whereas the opposite is true for the last few GEFS/EPS/CDN ens runs! I realize the GFS has a warm bias but this much warmth?

The error here is the GOA ridge, which in turn digs a trough out west, that’s not the case on the GEFS. The ridging is instead more amplified north of Alaska and poleward. Much better look. Models seem to be handling the blocking a little poorly....it could be right, but we’ll see.

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[NoSnowATL]

All of these cutters would help establish snow pack to our north so it would help us going forward.

 

[pcbjr]

Models seem to be handling the blocking a little poorly....it could be right

Jon, I'm trying to put this in to your lingo/realm just to try to present an example (in the most elementary fashion since I'm not Rx qualified even at that low level) ... I've dealt with some folks over the years with Grave's Disease, and the thyroid medicine prescribed to each was either too high or too low at first, and it took some time for those folks to get the balance correct; then they all stabilized and have lived a great life since; maybe the models are like an underdose or overdose of that or any other onset treatment this early on in the season given the "presentation"; perhaps, as I suspect, some model stabilization will come to pass with a little more dose fine tuning, and hopefully that occurs before the whole damn board goes bald from a combination of hair pulling and worry ... or overdosing on fantasy ...

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 7589
Here it is! 384 GFS, still waiting on that pattern change! If this is what you get with blocking, I’m ready for it to be over!

Yea it was a ugly run. Lol

 

[Brent]

View attachment 7589
Here it is! 384 GFS, still waiting on that pattern change! If this is what you get with blocking, I’m ready for it to be over!

so done with the Mexico snow

 

[accu35]

6z,FV3 Cold. Gfs is to.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

6z,FV3 Cold. Gfs is to.

Come to papá!!! I really think the first week to two weeks of December will be cold before it warms up for the middle half then we get back cold after Christmas

 

[Jon]

Canadian seasonal is stormy through Dec 24....Euro weeklies aren’t, who will win?


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[whatalife]

Canadian seasonal is stormy through Dec 24....Euro weeklies aren’t, who will win?


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After looking over the Euro weeklies...I’ll pass on them after week 2ish and hope the Canadian is right .


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[Kylo]

02/03 gets discussed as relevant analog. EPS v/s Dec 2002.

 

[Tarheel1]

Come to papa!! GFS and GFSv3....
Our BFF the GLL, has given us an early Christmas present!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

View attachment 7593 View attachment 7594 Come to papa!! GFS and GFSv3....
Our BFF the GLL, has given us an early Christmas present!

Yess that definitely a good look

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Legs? Let’s hope so. The GFS has upper 60’s by the end of the run