That scenario isn’t cold air chasing moisture. It has a low associated with it in the gulf into South Georgia and South Carolina. It’s a classic look for snow in North Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.
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Well since 12z gfs threw a little bit of a bone. Can’t wait for happy hour 18z gfs.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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If it doesn’t show snow in NC/SC, we toss!
Now if you could get the low to stay south along the coast and not start cutting to the north. It would be a hit for my friends in NC/SC.If it doesn’t show snow in NC/SC, we toss!
Storm5
Member
If it doesn’t show snow in NC/SC, we toss!
Who cares about those states ??? It’s MBY or no BY !!!!! #winterhateishere
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Anyone take a look at the GEFS to see if it supports the GFS on this?
Shows mid 50’s/60’s east of the mountains with a snow to the west up through MS TN KY. Idk how we get cold air in place with a cutter pattern. I’m not sure it’s possible. We need blocking, they said. What are we blocking? 60’s from leaving the SE?If it doesn’t show snow in NC/SC, we toss!
Looks like for folks to the east to have a shot we need that front end cutter to work itself all the way through before the GL gets going? Looks like a pipe dream. Any experts care to explain
SnowNiner
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From a general perspective I think that scenario is in dire need of a strong high pressure system to the north. As its currently modeled there's just no cold air in funneling in. That's what I'm going to look for in future runs. Maybe it's in ensembles....
olhausen
Member
Even places like Cleveland Ohio have hit 70 in December. I believe the record high is 72 in December for Akron Ohio.
snowlover91
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Several problems. One is pronounced SW flow aloft before this system arrives putting a good chunk of the SE in a warm flow aloft.
The 5H energy here needs to dig more than shown, instead it makes it to about Texas and then tailing energy over Colorado "kicks" it to the NE causing a cutter. Generally you want this 5H energy passing along the Gulf Coast region for a widespread SE snow threat (assuming there is enough cold around to work with).
Storm5
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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If the MJO is forecast to be in any phase but 8,1,2, : then it will be correct!
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Kylo
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Interesting tidbit in there.
The vertical atmospheric energy transfer looks active to me for the foreseeable future. This could lead to a significant or major stratospheric PV as early as the second half of December and extending into early January.
SnowNiner
Member
Lol, all I keep hearing is the models keep showing a vortex under attack. Which one is it?
NCSNOW
Member
Several problems. One is pronounced SW flow aloft before this system arrives putting a good chunk of the SE in a warm flow aloft.
The 5H energy here needs to dig more than shown, instead it makes it to about Texas and then tailing energy over Colorado "kicks" it to the NE causing a cutter. Generally you want this 5H energy passing along the Gulf Coast region for a widespread SE snow threat (assuming there is enough cold around to work with).
Need some spacing on that energy as it comes down the pipe. These kickers are gonna continue to cause LPs to cut. Like rapid fire
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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18z is even warmer! Trending in the wrong direction!! Must , stop. Looking ... at.... Op .....Runs!!
Kylo
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Ilovesnow28
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I definitely agree... I do think so far this winter is going to be how consistent will the operational models do because like it or not regardless how great the forecasters say how good the upcoming winter season is going to be... It will not matter if the gfs,euro cmc,gfs-fv3,gefs, jma or all other models don't start showing something in the short or long range with consistency... Also I'm still trying to figure out if this is really a modoki or weak El nino... I'm still trying to learn every aspect of weather
Word on the street is the Weeklies will burn your Mack Browns off.
NoSnowATL
Member
Ben Noll says not so fast... winter is coming... from his maps it looks like it gets colder January- March. He is a good follow on Twitter.
whatalife
Moderator
Word on the street is the Weeklies will burn your Mack Browns off.
Burning might be an understatement
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Storm5
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Word on the street is the Weeklies will burn your Mack Browns off.
They look like hell . But the weeklies suck . They will look 100 percent different Thursday
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Round Oak Weather
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The 2m anomalies looked to be colder in total on the GFS I may be wrong tho. Also I know we diss the FV3 but someone posted something the other day showing its accuracy and in the short mid and long range it was close to the Euro and the gfs was almost the worst
Storm5
Member
I love this time year. The early cliff jumper don’t never let me down. Lol.
whatalife
Moderator
You are right about them being different. They got even warmer since their last run. Complete trash.
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Kylo
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Let’s see how Weeklies verify. Xmas week and first week of 2019.
But yeah, it’s U G L Y
But yeah, it’s U G L Y
Jessy89
Member
So that cold snowy winter in southeast. Isn’t looking so promising I don’t guess?
Avalanche
Member
Thats the word on the street. I wouldnt put much stock in it though. A month from now we could be shoveling snow to get out.
It’s ok. This is par for the course. If you look back, we all freak out about the upcoming winter bout now. Things are moving right along....
Christ almighty. All I know is we have had a favorable pattern and cold temps for several weeks now and you would think this would be rinse, wash, repeat kind of deal just like every single other winter we’ve ever known. Slow and steady, people. Slow and steady
I think we all needed that. You nailed it
snowlover91
Member
People need to realize we are in late November and most of our snows don’t come until January or February. I’m not sure why everyone here is jumping off a cliff based on the weeklies or monthly models when their verification has been absolutely horrible and they have no consistency. Recent ninos have favored a seasonal to warm December here in the SE and the sustained cold will likely set in by late December to early January.
Kylo
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Past 3 winters have been AN for the southeast. We may suck but we don’t suck bad enough to go 4 years in a row.
Please everyone back away from the cliff. And BTW Guest please take a moment and sign up so you can enjoy all the site features. It’s free and takes less then 5 minutes.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Call us Carolina Gamecocks, we go 0-5, like nobody’s business, against Clemsux! I’m looking forward to a warm December! I can get my lawn well manicured , for the amazing Jan/Feb snows we have coming!
packfan98
Moderator
Let’s try to put the banter and venting posts in the 2018 Banter and Venting thread. Take your cliff diving over there please.
Brent
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Man its gonna be a longggggg winter
D10 ensembles look like this and folks are fretting. I'm confused.
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