That scenario isn’t cold air chasing moisture. It has a low associated with it in the gulf into South Georgia and South Carolina. It’s a classic look for snow in North Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.
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Well since 12z gfs threw a little bit of a bone. Can’t wait for happy hour 18z gfs.
If it doesn’t show snow in NC/SC, we toss!
Now if you could get the low to stay south along the coast and not start cutting to the north. It would be a hit for my friends in NC/SC.If it doesn’t show snow in NC/SC, we toss!
Storm5
Member
If it doesn’t show snow in NC/SC, we toss!
Who cares about those states ??? It’s MBY or no BY !!!!! #winterhateishere
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Anyone take a look at the GEFS to see if it supports the GFS on this?
Shows mid 50’s/60’s east of the mountains with a snow to the west up through MS TN KY. Idk how we get cold air in place with a cutter pattern. I’m not sure it’s possible. We need blocking, they said. What are we blocking? 60’s from leaving the SE?If it doesn’t show snow in NC/SC, we toss!
Looks like for folks to the east to have a shot we need that front end cutter to work itself all the way through before the GL gets going? Looks like a pipe dream. Any experts care to explain
SnowNiner
Member
From a general perspective I think that scenario is in dire need of a strong high pressure system to the north. As its currently modeled there's just no cold air in funneling in. That's what I'm going to look for in future runs. Maybe it's in ensembles....
olhausen
Member
Even places like Cleveland Ohio have hit 70 in December. I believe the record high is 72 in December for Akron Ohio.
snowlover91
Member
Several problems. One is pronounced SW flow aloft before this system arrives putting a good chunk of the SE in a warm flow aloft.
The 5H energy here needs to dig more than shown, instead it makes it to about Texas and then tailing energy over Colorado "kicks" it to the NE causing a cutter. Generally you want this 5H energy passing along the Gulf Coast region for a widespread SE snow threat (assuming there is enough cold around to work with).
Storm5
Member
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If the MJO is forecast to be in any phase but 8,1,2, : then it will be correct!
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Kylo
Member
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Interesting tidbit in there.
The vertical atmospheric energy transfer looks active to me for the foreseeable future. This could lead to a significant or major stratospheric PV as early as the second half of December and extending into early January.
SnowNiner
Member
Lol, all I keep hearing is the models keep showing a vortex under attack. Which one is it?
NCSNOW
Member
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Several problems. One is pronounced SW flow aloft before this system arrives putting a good chunk of the SE in a warm flow aloft.
The 5H energy here needs to dig more than shown, instead it makes it to about Texas and then tailing energy over Colorado "kicks" it to the NE causing a cutter. Generally you want this 5H energy passing along the Gulf Coast region for a widespread SE snow threat (assuming there is enough cold around to work with).
Need some spacing on that energy as it comes down the pipe. These kickers are gonna continue to cause LPs to cut. Like rapid fire
18z is even warmer! Trending in the wrong direction!! Must , stop. Looking ... at.... Op .....Runs!!
Kylo
Member
Ilovesnow28
Member
I definitely agree... I do think so far this winter is going to be how consistent will the operational models do because like it or not regardless how great the forecasters say how good the upcoming winter season is going to be... It will not matter if the gfs,euro cmc,gfs-fv3,gefs, jma or all other models don't start showing something in the short or long range with consistency... Also I'm still trying to figure out if this is really a modoki or weak El nino... I'm still trying to learn every aspect of weather
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