Gfs little more realistic on this run for Texas. 
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Only 14 days away! Miller B garbage, lets reel it in! Happy Christmas! But Brent should approve!:weenie:
Storm5
Member
Freezing fog this morning
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Hey guys first time poster and from the other forum. If you guys remember the last southeast storm over the weekend the FV3 has the system to far north until about 7 days out. It adjusted further south and stayed on its course. THE FV3 ruled on that storm so I wouldn’t discount the threat. Maybe we have something to chase. It looks like it slowly trending toward a Phase. Anyway thank you for letting me join the group!
Daniel R.
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Daniel R.
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MichaelJ
Member
Welcome Daniel, you will find this board an enjoyable place to be
BHS1975
Member
FV3 suppresses the Christmas storm which is good at this lead.
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The southern stream is crazy this year, after the Christmas storm, like clockwork another ULL drops into the SW. If we can lock in the cold for just two weeks, we'd have a historic winter.
Welcome and great to have you!
Too bad the cold is bottled up to our north (the FV3 would actually argue some graupel not out of the question as it exits) but dang as Arcc mentioned if this keeps with a couple of weeks of cold air, watch out...
FV3
FV3
Storm5
Member
Welcome to the board ! The FV3 did do surprisingly well . Will be interesting to see if that continues this winter
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BHS1975
Member
whatalife
Moderator
BHS1975
Member
Not bad just need a little more of a cold push.
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ATLwxfan
Member
We may have to go through a few bouts of energy without cold and cold without energy before we get another legit threat. Maybe post January thaw is more likely.
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ATLwxfan
Member
That depends on where you live.
Only models that nailed this last storm for me were the GGEM and RGEM. Ask SD about it.
Storm5
Member
That depends on where you live.
Each region could justify which model did best . I guess for the southeast in general the FV3 was most likely the best with the track on consistent basis . Obviously the snow maps are extremely flawed
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Storm5
Member
I don't know man, this 48 hr FV3 map looks pretty darn good to me. You can't expect a global model to nail every transition zone down to the mile, and obviously it wasn't 100% perfect in the Mecklenburg and Wake County regions, but it consistently got the right idea of a very tight gradient and in the general right locations. It's up to the forecasters to take it from there and that's where I sucked it up - the FV3 gave all the right information to make a great forecast IMO.That depends on where you live.