Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

[mrdaddyman]

I don't know man, this 48 hr FV3 map looks pretty darn good to me. You can't expect a global model to nail every transition zone down to the mile, and obviously it wasn't 100% perfect in the Mecklenburg and Wake County regions, but it consistently got the right idea of a very tight gradient and in the general right locations. It's up to the forecasters to take it from there and that's where I sucked it up - the FV3 gave all the right information to make a great forecast IMO.

Yeah, it's probably smart not to even expect anything but a cold rain when you are living on the fringe areas of a ridiculous clown map.

 

[Tarheel1]

Yeah, it's probably smart not to even expect anything but a cold rain when you are living on the fringe areas of a ridiculous clown map.

The sooner this is accepted, the more appreciation you’ll have for 10 sleet pellets to start, while 10 miles N , gets a foot! Expect nothing but rain, and anything else is gravy!

 

[Tarheel1]

YET!

 

[Rain Cold]

I don't know man, this 48 hr FV3 map looks pretty darn good to me. You can't expect a global model to nail every transition zone down to the mile, and obviously it wasn't 100% perfect in the Mecklenburg and Wake County regions, but it consistently got the right idea of a very tight gradient and in the general right locations. It's up to the forecasters to take it from there and that's where I sucked it up - the FV3 gave all the right information to make a great forecast IMO.

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 9079

Don’t worry, plenty more dissapointments coming this winter! The 2009/10 redux incoming!! Just wait till #SSWBESTWINTEREVER!
#NINO #SUNANGLE #WARMNOSE

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Come on baby. Sniff one more good en’ out before you are made obsolete

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 9079

Yea I would be ticked if I was in the edge of that also.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

3 contoured cutoff on FV3 and still can't get snow down here.

 

[Tarheel1]

Come on baby. Sniff one more good en’ out before you are made obsolete View attachment 9080

Book that one! A NE/MA Crusher
Is the sight different!? On my phone, looks different

 

[Storm5]

3 contoured cutoff on FV3 and still can't get snow down here.

3 contoured cutoff on FV3 and still can't get snow down here.

getting closer for those to our west. Now has 30s in parts of Mississippi directly under the ull

 

[Tarheel1]

It’s a good post from the other board!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Book that one! A NE/MA Crusher
Is the sight different!? On my phone, looks different

Yeah. Upgrade. CJ made a big donation this morning

 

[Thor]

Pretty impressive cold in the northern hemisphere heading towards the end of the month

 

[deltadog03]

Great track on euro, but would assume way to warm at 2m

 

[Metwannabe]

Great track on euro, but would assume way to warm at 2m

Basically too warm through the column, but if we had some cold air to work with that would be money...

 

[Arcc]

GEFS is staying consistent with the time frame around the 22nd when the firehose will start to be turned off.

 

[Metwannabe]

Have we ever had a SSW and what were the effects? I feel like it's a unicorn we chase every year....

 

[Arcc]

Have we ever had a SSW and what were the effects? I feel like it's a unicorn we chase every year....

I've wondered that too. Just like the Eurasia snow cover idea, lots of talk but haven't seen much either way.

 

[Kylo]

Have we ever had a SSW and what were the effects? I feel like it's a unicorn we chase every year....

We had one last February, March was fairly cold with blocking. I remember most of last spring was cold.

2010 had the most infamous one, occurred in mid-January and we know what happened rest of winter.

Cohens blog about this winter and SSW.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

[mrdaddyman]

We had one last February, March was fairly cold with blocking. I remember most of last spring was cold.

2010 had the most infamous one, occurred in mid-January and we know what happened rest of winter.

Cohens blog about this winter and SSW.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

View attachment 9084View attachment 9083

View attachment 9085

Yeah, I guess it was just too late to help us out last winter as it takes a while for us to feel the effects of it.