Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Hmmm View attachment 54807View attachment 54806

Sobering when even CAE has modeled snow and you don't. ?

 

[Cadi40]

How much for DBQ? It’s been dry for 8 days , no snow in sight

I’m sorry but you are the last person on this board
allowed to complain about snow ?

 

[Jessy89]

Does upstate Sc have any realistic chances at snow between now and Christmas? Are the models showing anything possible?

I’d say about 10% chance in my personal opinion


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[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Was it just me or the 00z icon seemed to have shifted south from the 12z run for the weekend

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[jackendrickwx]

Not even close on this run for cold air.
edit: I always speak too soon don't I?

 

[DopplerWx]

Man...

 

[jackendrickwx]

Downtown Nashville screwjob. Southern metro scores

 

[BufordWX]

Not even close on this run for cold air.
edit: I always speak too soon don't I?
View attachment 54858

The magical ULL. I’ll take my chances, but hard to expect anything for now.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’ll take my chances

 

[jackendrickwx]

Gonna be a very interesting 00z suite of ensembles (and ecmwf)

 

[BufordWX]

This is just a tough look to hang your hat on. Not much margin for error.

 

[jackendrickwx]

This is just a tough look to hang your hat on. Not much margin for error.View attachment 54862

Yeah I'd rather not rely on "it'll make its own cold" plus nothing imby ?

 

[J.C.]

Come to the NW side of Atlanta. We catch a good many Miller As and still can get a good wedge and ice.

What we're seeing tonight is what I love so much because it feels like winter without having crappy roads. These setups typically happen four or five times in an average year for us. If you go back and look at KATL's weather records you see a lot of Ts in the snow column, and this is why. Even as bad as last year was it still happened a couple of times.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Plus that's almost the exact same look as this event correct?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Plus that's almost the exact same look as this event correct?

This one right now is farther north, we need a ULL farther south like what the GFS shows

 

[BufordWX]

Plus that's almost the exact same look as this event correct?

Maybe system wise, but I like the upper level cold set up with the current system. Might be a tad colder.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Maybe system wise, but I like the upper level cold set up with the current system. Might be a tad colder.View attachment 54866

Yeah this one has N/S phased with it so it has better cold, next one is more “You gotta be under the cold pocket aloft” I’d say the 2nd could be more rewarding but good luck tracking a ULL with how bad models are struggling rn

 

[accu35]

Could this upper level low shift south??

 

[Snowfan]

Could this upper level low shift south??

Considering how the models performed today, I wouldn't be surprised