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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Ollie Williams said:
Lol, nope, gets stuck in NW Mexico.
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Yeah, it goes off the rails after 96 hr, but it just took a big step towards the GFS/GEFS camp in the short range when the trends are more meaningful & likely to stick which garners my attention. Curious how the next few cycles look because the EPS, GEFS, &/or GEPS are about to look real stupid on their placement of the upper low in the southwestern US & southern Rockies-plains
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, it goes off the rails after 96 hr, but it just took a big step towards the GFS/GEFS camp in the short range when the trends are more meaningful & likely to stick which garners my attention. Curious how the next few cycles look because the EPS, GEFS, &/or GEPS are about to look real stupid on their placement of the upper low in the southwestern US & southern Rockies-plains
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We’re basically back in the 90s right now, lol, has C19 really effected models that much ? I know it’s messed with sfc obs quite a bit
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Jeez that guy is the biggest weenie I've ever encountered. And when his cold and snow forecasts bust he doesn't have a sense of humor. Got blocked after 1 interaction with him.
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He hates me. He used to live in Elizabeth City (maybe still does, no idea) and I’d flame him on Twitter. He eventually blocked me for calling him an idiot and other choice words that the FCC deems offensive.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
February 8th of this year sort of felt that way
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For me in the Charlotte area, the most recent example of that was February 12, 2010...there had been no mention of snow from that system for our area all week as it was expected to stay to the south. Then literally the night before, the model runs during the 5 and 6 o’clock newscasts started trending the system north and Brad P. put a chance of flurries into the forecast and then by 11pm he was talking about accumulations. That actually ended up being a fairly widespread 3-5 inch storm for the metro area and it was a mess because it hit right during the evening rush hour and temps had stayed around freezing all day.
 
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I am going with the general consensus from @Webberweather53 and @Myfrotho704_ that if we get a storm, it's literally going to come out of the middle of 'effin nowhere. Modeling has sucked, like all of 2020. I am not complaining though, that would be awesome to see something like that. Kinda like the Feb. 2013 event. That was such an amazing little storm, I think I got nearly 3 inches within a matter of hours.
 
Webberweather53 said:
You know how many we're really gonna get

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If we go one more winter without something even remotely substantial, I really am going to call it quits and move somewhere that manages to get snow. Hell, at this point ATL is in a better position than we are. But I'm still thinking Nashville.
 
ryan1234 said:
If we go one more winter without something even remotely substantial, I really am going to call it quits and move somewhere that manages to get snow. Hell, at this point ATL is in a better position than we are. But I'm still thinking Nashville.
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Come to the NW side of Atlanta. We catch a good many Miller As and still can get a good wedge and ice.
 
Six Mile Wx said:
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Good to see that the GEFS & GEPS aren't alone in showing some disruption of the polar vortex later in week 2, I'm usually pretty weary of their forecasts (because they (esp the GEFS) have a weak vortex bias in the long range), and obviously still am skeptical more so than a z500 forecast because stratosphere predictability is much more limited compared to the troposphere
 
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