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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
I really wish that we could get a storm that all models would agree on. LOL
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Problem is we hardly ever get that. Most of the time, the biggest storms will come from the simplest of patterns. One of the reasons why the Superstorm of 1993 was so well forecasted well out in advance.

This current setup is nothing simplistic about it. So many ingredients, and if one is off, it ruins the recipe
 
Wow, a whopping .001 here lol. I think that is equivalent to about 12 snowflakes. Does look ok for some in our board areas, northing great but measurable at least.
 
I remember the Christmas 2010 storm looked great about a week out, then it went poof and came back around on the models 48 hours out. Hope that's happening again.
 
I know that ice is extremely different than snow, but it's time that places who missed out during the storm earlier this month see at least something frozen falling from the sky.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's somewhere in the vicinity of 0.25", not too shabby

View attachment 2289
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Thank you! So the op and ens are at odds. I Think we all have to remember, myself certainly included, that we all think about snow and how much damage a few inches can cause. Well, a .25" of ZR is definitely enough to cause some issues for sure. Specially with winds up a bit
 
Brick Tamland said:
I remember the Christmas 2010 storm looked great about a week out, then it went poof and came back around on the models 48 hours out. Hope that's happening again.
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Totally differnet scenario here Brick, this is due to supression from severe push of cold and that dries the air out when it gets that cold with a w/nw flow. I do think Raleigh may squeak out with a little more precipitation than folks to the west though
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hmm not sure where you got your maps from but wxbell is showing more than double that
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My maps are from MDA. I think I see where much of the discrepancy is coming from. I did just the 48 hour period ending at 12Z on 12/30 whereas it appears you did the 126 hours ending 18Z on 12/30, a longer period that I think incorporates an earlier wave. I redid my 48 hours to end at 6Z 12/30 and get exactly 0.10" at MCN. My 120 hour map to either 12Z or 18Z on 12/30 gives MCN close to 0.20". So, there is about 0.10" that falls before 6Z on 12/28, which I believe is before the wave being analyzed.
 
A snippet from CAE's latest discussion: (they literally put DRY in all caps)

12z guidance continues to suggest considerable uncertainty for a
possible winter storm Thursday into Friday. The last two runs of
the ECMWF are DRY. The Canadian is now DRY. Little change in GFS
model. Ensemble guidance pops show large spread. No significant
changes to forecast at this time.


The last two runs of the ECMWF and its ensemble suggest a much
lower threat with moisture and low pressure development
southeast of the area and no isentropic lift.
 
GaWx said:
My maps are from MDA. I think I see where much of the discrepancy is coming from. I did just the 48 hour period ending at 12Z on 12/30 whereas it appears you did the 126 hours ending 18Z on 12/30, a longer period that I think incorporates an earlier wave. I redid my 48 hours to end at 6Z 12/30 and get exactly 0.10" at MCN. My 120 hour map to either 12Z or 18Z on 12/30 gives MCN close to 0.20". So, there is about 0.10" that falls before 6Z on 12/28, which I believe is before the wave being analyzed.
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Actually most of that precip falls in about 24 hours, but yea I see what you're saying
 
Shawn said:
A snippet from CAE's latest discussion: (they literally put DRY in all caps)

12z guidance continues to suggest considerable uncertainty for a
possible winter storm Thursday into Friday. The last two runs of
the ECMWF are DRY. The Canadian is now DRY. Little change in GFS
model. Ensemble guidance pops show large spread. No significant
changes to forecast at this time.


The last two runs of the ECMWF and its ensemble suggest a much
lower threat with moisture and low pressure development
southeast of the area and no isentropic lift.
Click to expand...
lol it's a little too early to pull the plug on isentropic lift in the midlands especially when your right on the NW border of the heaviest precip in an overrunning event
 
Shawn said:
A snippet from CAE's latest discussion: (they literally put DRY in all caps)
Shawn whats your opinion on this for us? think we should move on to next one?
12z guidance continues to suggest considerable uncertainty for a
possible winter storm Thursday into Friday. The last two runs of
the ECMWF are DRY. The Canadian is now DRY. Little change in GFS
model. Ensemble guidance pops show large spread. No significant
changes to forecast at this time.


The last two runs of the ECMWF and its ensemble suggest a much
lower threat with moisture and low pressure development
southeast of the area and no isentropic lift.
Click to expand...
 
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