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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Throwing in the towel on anything involving ice is a dangerous thing to do but fortunately even if it is something it won't be as major as once thought.
 
NorthBamaWeather said:
Night and Day! Just insane...

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Basically.

You forecast an Ice Storm, people get milk, bread, and generators, nothing happens.

You forecast dry and cold, cars are sliding all over the place.
 
Man, the SREF.. isn't that being replaced eventually? Anyway, one insane member has almost 1.5 inches of QPF for CAE. The mean looks like 0.3 or so through the run.
 
Shawn said:
Man, the SREF.. isn't that being replaced eventually? Anyway, one insane member has almost 1.5 inches of QPF for CAE. The mean looks like 0.3 or so through the run.
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Yes, it's being replaced by the HREF which is almost in range for the 27th system. I really like the probability matched mean (PMM) product that's derived from it which eradicates dampening of an ensemble mean w/ range that occurs as uncertainty increases...

Here's a list of the HREF members, the NAM is included in this suite, in fact, all the ensemble members should look familiar in some, way, shape, or form. Additionally, all members are able to resolve convection w/ grid spacing < 4 km.
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NW trend is in full force on the NAM for our Wednesday wave... What looked like virtually nothing w/ a shortwave suppressed into oblivion off the SE US coast (like our 28-29th storm has become), a few days later, this is beginning to turn into legitimate event on some NWP models. Just another reason not to throw in the towel just yet for our storm on Thu/Fri. Give it another day or two
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Eric, I thought a NW trend on the 27th would lower our chance of a 28-29th storm? Didn't u say that?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Yep clear trend to the other models. GFS has been about 2 steps behind all winter
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GFS was weak and very light to no precip before the other modeling caught on. So it sniffed it earlier, some just threw it out.
 
SD said:
Perhaps we need a dec 27 thread

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18Z GGEM is also further NW with precip for Wednesday (think 12z had some hints of wintry wx with this wave too). It goes back to the 12z run after 48 hours so don't know what it does with this wave yet.
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Nice to have a voice of reason. I think we'll end up with a middle ground most likely between models and even if it's not a lot of QPF, any ice can be a headache.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS might be more suppressed this run but like the Euro it's also showing less confluence near Atlantic Canada at day 2.5-3, which gives our s/w more room to intensify
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If this happens and it is able to ramp up more then the NW trend would become our friend... still hanging on here

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