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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

For what it's worth, the JMA was really wet.
We essentially have the GFS, it's eventually successor the FV3, the DWD-ICON (german model), GFS Ensemble, CMC Ensemble, NAM, and the JMA completely on board, the UKMET is awkwardly riding the fence but certainly looked no worse than yesterday, and the Euro is a big no but it again looked no worse than yesterday, if anything slightly better at the synoptic scale w/ less confluence near the eastern seaboard. Really need to see the EPS
 
Webberweather53 said:
For what it's worth, the JMA was really wet.
We essentially have the GFS, it's eventually successor the FV3, the DWD-ICON (german model), GFS Ensemble, CMC Ensemble, NAM, and the JMA completely on board, the UKMET is awkwardly riding the fence but certainly looked no worse than yesterday, and the Euro is a big no but it again looked no worse than yesterday, if anything slightly better at the synoptic scale w/ less confluence near the eastern seaboard. Really need to see the EPS
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Yeah I was wondering if the EPS had come out yet.
 
Webberweather53 said:
For what it's worth, the JMA was really wet.
We essentially have the GFS, it's eventually successor the FV3, the DWD-ICON (german model), GFS Ensemble, CMC Ensemble, NAM, and the JMA completely on board, the UKMET is awkwardly riding the fence but certainly looked no worse than yesterday, and the Euro is a big no but it again looked no worse than yesterday, if anything slightly better at the synoptic scale w/ less confluence near the eastern seaboard. Really need to see the EPS
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The Euro did a really poor job on the early December storm, I think only catching on about 2 days out!? And on the confluence, it's usually never as strong as modeled when we need it, hopefully it doesn't crap the bed on this storm!
 
There’s so many things in play here, you could always argue that the GFS is clueless. Is it? We don’t know yet. We can also say that the European is the best mid range model but what do you consider mid range? I say days three through seven is its wheel house so can you say well, maybe that we’re just not in its wheel house anymore at GFS might actually win. LOL I doubt it ha ha Ha ha ha. AnyWho, I think the chances are certainly lowered that I have in the last couple of days and many just maybe left out cold and dry. We don’t know that yet. I will say we should start seeing some changes in the Nam and the GFS Since they are geared to more short term Rangers versus the European
 
FFC looking more confident in wintry precip here. However, their discussion is not as confident due to the Euro drying out.
Plotter.php
 
CAE says:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
106 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

Little change in the thought that there could be some potential
wintry weather impacting the forecast area late this week due
to an arctic airmass and developing cold air damming regime.
However, uncertainty remains regarding the amount of moisture
available, the timing of precipitation onset and QPF amounts
due to inconsistencies among the medium range models handling
shortwave energy moving through the base of the upper trough.
The latest ECWMF has come in much drier for the Thur-Fri time
frame with more northwesterly 500mb flow keeping moisture to
our south while the GFS/Canadian continue to show overrunning
precipitation through the cold surface layer.

Relatively high confidence in a very cold airmass spreading
over the forecast area starting Wednesday night emanating from
a 1040mb arctic high pressure centered over southeastern Canada
and New England. Persistent northeasterly flow into the area
will usher in colder and drier air through Thursday. The ECMWF
and Canadian continue to be a bit colder than the GFS with the
near surface arctic air. Increasing clouds and light
overrunning precipitation expected to begin sometime Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening and continue into the day on
Friday as moist southwesterly flow increases atop the near
shallow surface cold layer, in response to shortwave energy
moving through the base of an amplifying upper trough. The
operational GFS is a bit more progressive and less amplified
with this feature compared to the slightly more amplified
EC/Canadian solutions and therefore move end precipitation
earlier on the day Friday. The resulting coastal surface low
development from the GFS is weaker and further offshore than
the EC/Canadian resulting in less QPF over the forecast area.
It should be noted though that the GEFS mean QPF is about
double the operational run and more in line with the other
medium range models.
Click to expand...
 
12Z EPS is a little drier well inland than the 0Z EPS but it is about same near the SE coast as the 0Z EPS with a respectable 0.25" of what would largely be wintry. Also, it is wetter than the 12Z Euro, which had only 0.05" right along the SE coast and almost nothing further inland.
 
Has there been a situation where all the models were on board with something except the Euro and then the models dropped everything and followed the Euro?
 
RollTide18 said:
Has there been a situation where all the models were on board with something except the Euro and then the models dropped everything and followed the Euro?
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Euro ain't what it used to be! I'm glad to see some of Webbs and Larrys positive posts on how close this is to being a decent storm and how small changes in the players , can make big differences in the outcome!
 
Yeah I agree Larry the EPS actually looked better for the lowlands of SC and southern GA, virtually unchanged for areas like Macon GA, Columbia SC, & Fayetteville NC. EPS mean precip decreased in the upstate and towards RDU but there's still a considerable amount on the suite verbatim, enough to where these areas are clearly still in the game
 
deltadog03 said:
View attachment 2286 View attachment 2287 View attachment 2288 I know it only goes out 48 hours but here is the rgem
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RGEM's thermal profile for parts of the Atlanta metro actually looks good for snow/sleet. 850s are either at or slightly above 0c. Not sure if future frames will push the 850mb 0c isotherm back north as the precip moves in, but it looks a lot like what the CMC did before it lost all of it's precip, at least temperature wise. RGEM is pretty solid when it comes to warm noses and the thermal profile of the column.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I agree Larry the EPS actually looked better for the lowlands of SC and southern GA, virtually unchanged for areas like Macon GA, Columbia SC, & Fayetteville NC. EPS mean precip decreased in the upstate and towards RDU but there's still a considerable amount on the suite verbatim, enough to where these areas are clearly still in the game
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I haven't looked but what is the mean amount near MCN? And that corridor
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I agree Larry the EPS actually looked better for the lowlands of SC and southern GA, virtually unchanged for areas like Macon GA, Columbia SC, & Fayetteville NC. EPS mean precip decreased in the upstate and towards RDU but there's still a considerable amount on the suite verbatim, enough to where these areas are clearly still in the game
Click to expand...
Any maps?
 
Well, from all I have read today, looks like for here it's riding the fine line between nothing or a big deal. That seems to be it always goes here lately.
 
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