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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

12Z Euro is dangerously close to a significant ZR along the SE coast but there is no ZR on it. Whenever there is a sfc low such as this run shows that forms as far SE as E of central FL, the SE coast needs to be wary based on wx maps of SE coast wintry events going back to the 1870s. The main question as Stormsfury suggested for near the coast for these very rare cases is actually moisture rather than it being cold enough.
 
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Looking similar to the most recent CMC isn't a step in the right direction I don't think.

Well I would do a priceisrightfailhorn.gif or say that's it, but considering how things have gone this year I still think we don't really know what's going to happen. This is bad, within a week and still no clue.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
GaWx, do you know how far inland the precipitation occurred during the 1922 Savannah ice storm? I'm roughly 150 miles due east of Savannah and ever so slightly latitudinally north and was wondering if this was simply confined to the coast or all of the lower half of Georgia.
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Your area likely had a significant ZR and possibly IP though probably not as hard a hit. Augusta for example had much less liquid equivalent precip than CHS-SAV.
 
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There's the difference maker, the trough over New England at day 3 is deeper than the GFS >>> more confluence >>> stretched/sheared s/w >>> more suppression
ecmwf_gfs_z500_conus_15.png
 
EURO 35° with a TD below 10° in KCHS at hour 90. Seems to want to kick up the 1st wave a little bit too but failed. May also produce some NVA behind wave 1 on Wednesday.

Sure as hell looked squashed. Much more confluence and even WNW flow ay 500mb...
 
SimeonNC said:
Any significant difference between the 12z and the 00z Euro you've seen?
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Stormsfury said:
EURO 35° with a TD below 10° in KCHS at hour 90. Seems to want to kick up the 1st wave a little bit too but failed. May also produce some NVA behind wave 1 on Wednesday.

Sure as hell looked squashed. Much more confluence and even WNW flow ay 500mb...
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The Euro didn't increase the confluence near the eastern seaboard around day 3, so this is still clearly game on. Notice the heights are actually higher over Atlantic Canada out to 78 hours which argues for a tad less confluence and less shearing on our wave.
Here's the dz500/dt plot vs the 0z run for the Euro at 78 hours.
ecmwf_z500_dt_noram_14.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro didn't increase the confluence near the eastern seaboard around day 3, so this is still clearly game on. Notice the heights are actually higher over Atlantic Canada out to 78 hours which argues for a tad less confluence and less shearing on our wave.
Here's the dz500/dt plot vs the 0z run for the Euro at 78 hours.
View attachment 2284
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We need a few more runs like this to keep us in the game, another run or two with a deeper trough over New England at day 3 would seal the deal against us and we'd have no storm. It's a tad encouraging to see that we've at least put a momentary halt to the deepening trend w/ the trough over New England on the operational Euro
 
The largest problem I see for people, is the air mass will be cold. ZR, doesn't take much to cause major problems. If we have less shearing of the wave, and we get more precipitation than expected with current runs, people are in trouble without a whole lot of warning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We need a few more runs like this to keep us in the game, another run or two with a deeper trough over New England at day 3 would seal the deal against us and we'd have no storm. It's a tad encouraging to see that we've at least put a momentary halt to the deepening trend w/ the trough over New England on the operational Euro
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Won't take much of a lessening of the push. Just a subtle difference, totally different ball game.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We need a few more runs like this to keep us in the game, another run or two with a deeper trough over New England at day 3 would seal the deal against us and we'd have no storm. It's a tad encouraging to see that we've at least put a momentary halt to the deepening trend w/ the trough over New England on the operational Euro
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I have a feeling that this will be the trend, every other model has been showing improvement except for the CMC.
 
I know we say this on a regular basis just to keep hope alive but the reality is the next 2-3 model suites are going to be very critical to fleshing out the fate of this system. Once our s/w gets close enough to the Pacific NW and our s/w in the northern branch over central Canada gets into the dense RAOB coverage in the northern US I think we'll begin to find a solution. The spread in the models is pretty substantial for day 3-4 and just a few minor tweaks at the synoptic scale could take this from 0 to 100 & vis versa...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know we say this on a regular basis just to keep hope alive but the reality is the next 2-3 model suites are going to be very critical to fleshing out the fate of this system. Once our s/w gets close enough to the Pacific NW and our s/w in the northern branch over central Canada gets into the dense RAOB coverage in the northern US I think we'll begin to find a solution. The spread in the models is pretty substantial for day 3-4 and just a few minor tweaks at the synoptic scale could take this from 0 to 100 & vis versa...
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It's quite scary how easy this could be a nightmare with little warning. Icon vs Euro is a ridiculous spread with precipitation totals.
 
Shawn said:
And the Euro. The Euro was a bit better initially with our wave (not great); and then went down hill... but still no precipitation.
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It's good that the confluence situation stopped getting stronger. If it continued then you could likely toss the rest of the model suite.
 
Seems like if you placed all models together, I'd say the trend was slightly better for today. I definitely wouldn't say the trend got "worse"
 
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