Man idk if that's going to be all ZR for SC. So much cold air, i imagine alot of it is snow and sleet.
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Clem282340
Member
Okay thanks so you saying we could be getting around 3-4 inches of snow or it could be more than that if it stays on the same track
SimeonNC
Member
Do you think much of a NW trend will happen?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You could if the QPF forecast is right but it rarely is in any NWP model, it's usually the variable w/ the most unpredictability. A further NW track would bring more intense QPF and WAA over top of the low level CAD dome but the amount of IP would inevitably increase so you'd probably lose some snow/sleet accumulations. There's an upper limit in the best possible case scenario to how much snow you could see in this setup if it ended up miraculously being all snow, and that limit gets larger the further NW you go...
Stormsfury
Member
On the NAM at 81 and 84hrs, the thermal schemes had 850mb 0C close to the NC/SC border with the 925mb 0C closer to Columbia.
Not all ZR for all of SC. But S SC/SE GA are currently being modeled with mainly ZR. And the SE extent of 32 is likely too far NW on the GFS/GEFS. See the 12Z NAM and CMC for a likely more realistic view.
Stormsfury
Member
^^ For those in upstate asking about snow; clicking Stormfury's link will show you how anemic the precipitation is. The further North you are in this situation; the less precip you will get total in theory (on this setup). Rates can overcome for some areas if it's predominantly snow, but you need the moisture.
whatalife
Moderator
UKMET 00z
UKMET 12z
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UKMET 12z
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Well ok thenUKMET 00z
UKMET 12z
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Many escaped by the skin of their teeth w/o much appreciable precipitation on this UKMET run, very close call overall but the precipitation swath remained similar... If this was the forecast verbatim inside 48 hours, I still wouldn't feel too bad about my chances in areas on the outside looking in from the northern side of the precipitation shield including the upstate, around Atlanta, and Fayetteville, NC. Even a minute shift in the precipitation shield and many would be in the game for some significant snows and vis versa. This is a few baby steps away from being a total bust w/ nothing or a very big deal.
Stormsfury
Member
UKMET 00z
UKMET 12z
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Much wetter than 00z...definitely feel the 12z EURO cycle follows suit now.
gawxnative
Member
Yes, that and wait for the NW Trend"...LOL
Good signs. Might be back from the dead here..
Stormsfury
Member
Not necessarily a NW trend but timing differentials.
gawxnative
Member
Was making a funny... hence the " marks..lol... Since so many wait on the "NW Trend"...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As long as the EPS and Euro don't completely crush this system into utter nothingness this is definitely still game on. The GFS, NAM, and DWD-ICON models are apparently all in, the UKMET & GEFS are fairly unsure/on the fence, the CMC is a no go.
UKMET 00z
UKMET 12z
This 12Z Ukmet is showing 0.4-0.5" of QPF for SAV-CHS for just the six hours ending 12Z 12/29! With much of this likely being ZR, this just adds to the increasing threat of a very rare and potentially historic sig icestorm throughout the corridor.