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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

GaWx said:
This 12Z Ukmet is showing 0.4-0.5" of QPF for SAV-CHS for just the six hours ending 12Z 12/29! With much of this likely being ZR, this just adds to the increasing threat of a very rare sig icestorm throughout the corridor.
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Yeah it's definitely a rare situation indeed. Even the bone dry CMC blips some lightZR around SAV and CHS in a 6 hr window. Problem isn't having the cold in place, it's the degree of moisture that overruns thru isentropic upglide.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png
 
Eric, I may be a bit early; but the trough looks less on the 12z Euro so far that you were talking about?
 
Stormsfury said:
Yeah it's definitely a rare situation indeed. Even the bone dry CMC blips some lightZR around SAV and CHS in a 6 hr window. Problem isn't having the cold in place, it's the degree of moisture that overruns thru isentropic upglide.
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And there may not be much moisture with a W H5 flow vs WSW. But the 12Z Ukmet has a lot of moisture in our areas.
 
Well the wave is a bit "better" about to enter the USA. Lets see what the Euro says in the next little while!
 
Its coming in, still looks slightly better vs 00z; but it has to cross the rockies still; which will help shred it like Webber was speaking of yesterday.
 
It'll be different from it, but like I've said, 1/26/04 was an ice storm that pounded East GA into the Carolinas but shut Atlanta out, likely thankfully.

This one if it happens may be a case that is worse south.
 
Not sure if this was posted already, but the FV3 is also all in w/ our storm, there's an interesting s/w over the Great Lakes in a nearly optimal position to phase with the weak coastal low, in spite of the big trough off New England, this definitely leaves the door wide open to trend NW if the timing is anywhere close to what the FV3 is spitting out
fv3_us_ptype_2017122506_32.png
 
GaWx, do you know how far inland the precipitation occurred during the 1922 Savannah ice storm? I'm roughly 150 miles due west of Savannah and ever so slightly latitudinally north and was wondering if this was simply confined to the coast or all of the lower half of Georgia.
 
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^ To go with eric's post above with the FV3, there is more precip for many areas.
 
Weather rules I follow in Columbia. 32 or below and its dry. 33 and above and it pours buckets.
 
Here comes our wave; over Colorado now and dropping in a bit sharper than 00z. Nothing ground breaking here, but I think we may see more precip inland versus last night's run that had nothing. If it survives the trip.
 
12Z Euro colder and dry thru 72 but blossoming off SE coast 78
 
GaWx said:
This 12Z Ukmet is showing 0.4-0.5" of QPF for SAV-CHS for just the six hours ending 12Z 12/29! With much of this likely being ZR, this just adds to the increasing threat of a very rare and potentially historic sig icestorm throughout the corridor.
Click to expand...
If that verifies, it's going to wreck a bunch of your nice old trees. Hope for your sake the moisture dries up some. As for me things just keep getting worse, lol. I always miss the snow, but get the zr. Still, I'm in the bullseye so I hope it works for zr like it did for the recent snow. I can live with a slight glaze that melts quickly :) T
 
All we need is for the Euro to look slightly better. We don't need it to all of a sudden have the storm on top of us. Just a nice slow trend back to the NW.
 
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