Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

[Shawn]

Models probably trying to over account for the dry air. Slight changes in energy bundling and tilt make a big difference.

2m dewpoint and 700mb rel humidity maps are going to be best here.

 

[Oconeexman]

High thin cloud deck working in here at 19 deg..it's gonna be a raw one today. Not sure if we get above freezing today either

 

[EmersonGA]

Has that snow look here if nothing else. 20/16 with a solid gray deck.

 

[DadOfJax]

If you aren’t under a heavy band, you can forget about it. Super dry air is going to be hard to overcome with such light precip.

 

[Shawn]

If you aren’t under a heavy band, you can forget about it. Super dry air is going to be hard to overcome with such light precip.

I've been without internet for a while and the phone sucks, but I'm willing to bet if moisture gets in the dgz in any substantial amount, there will be some surprises. Especially if we can get more swesterly winds feeding in to whatever energy ends up being

Does anyone have any hires frontogenesis maps and if so did anything stand out?

 

[Loganville Winter]

If you aren’t under a heavy band, you can forget about it. Super dry air is going to be hard to overcome with such light precip.

Agreed! This could be one of those scenarios where somebody gets half an inch and 10 minutes away they get nothing.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Does anyone have some ground truth from NW Mississippi?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Does anyone have some ground truth from NW Mississippi?

 

[Oconeexman]

I've been without internet for a while and the phone sucks, but I'm willing to bet if moisture gets in the dgz in any substantial amount, there will be some surprises. Especially if we can get more swesterly winds feeding in to whatever energy ends up being

Does anyone have any hires frontogenesis maps and if so did anything stand out?

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Sun’s blazing here in Decatur…climbed up 12 degrees since an early morning low of 17. We’ll see what happens later, but I’m sensing a nothing burger

 

[DopplerWx]

Hrrr trying

 

[NoSnowATL]

Sun’s blazing here in Decatur…climbed up 12 degrees since an early morning low of 17. We’ll see what happens later, but I’m sensing a nothing burger

Might see some flurries later today as that clipper comes in. That’s a win for most. Looks like it will be after dark so leave the floodlights on.

 

[malak05]

Fun day ahead for parts of AL and GA. Models are stuggling and have not pinned down of had a good idea of the moisture and signs of a over performing system out west. I know this is from a clipper but we seen other overrunning events etc exceed models

 

[jeremyt]

Couple of thoughts/questions. I know the NAM is touted for being the best short term/length model but hasn’t it struggled recently, where the HRR has been better? Also the dry air is real and overcoming it will eat a way at some moisture but how much to overcome? Not really a IMBY deal as I think the best my area would see is maybe, “maybe” a short period of flurries but doesn’t this have the potential still to overperform for areas of NE GA and upstate SC?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why is the hrrr initializing right hour 0 then hour 1 loses half of the returns lol

 

[Oconeexman]

Those dew point differences are pretty wild

 

[Oconeexman]

Why is the hrrr initializing right hour 0 then hour 1 loses half of the returns lolView attachment 128626View attachment 128627

Huh as in that's wonky

 

[DadOfJax]

Fun day ahead for parts of AL and GA. Models are stuggling and have not pinned down of had a good idea of the moisture and signs of an over performing system out west. I know this is from a clipper but we seen other overrunning events etc exceed models

Overrunning vs Clipper….nowhere near the same potential for busts

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Much beefier hrrr run

 

[Flotown]

temp easing up,worried if we get precip might be rain..lol

 

[rburrel2]

solid feather dusting for the entire upstate. We will take it! Also nice that there will be zero mixing issues plus sub-freezing surface temps.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[JLL1973]

Snow is falling here

 

[Oconeexman]

Hendersonville and Nashville getting in a decent event..still snowing

 

[Spurs up]

View attachment 128631View attachment 128632

ugh that is so close to me ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Dew points running a bit too dry on the HRRR as well

 

[Oconeexman]

Rap looks to be more in line to ground truth currently..different than the Hrrr. Which unfortunately blanks SC later. Pretty good battle between these 2 models shaping up

 

[Flotown]

Snow is falling here

Awesome

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We’ve scored bigly on Lee side troughs before in the Carolina’s even with marginal temps. Problem is you never know where they’ll setup. But if/when they do it’s pound town. These will always intrigue me.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Rap looks to be more in line to ground truth currently..different than the Hrrr. Which unfortunately blanks SC later. Pretty good battle between these 2 models shaping up

Can you post it?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rap looks to be more in line to ground truth currently..different than the Hrrr. Which unfortunately blanks SC later. Pretty good battle between these 2 models shaping up

Newer rap (15z) looking better so far

 

[AJ1013]

Another cold raw day here. 50F and drizzle at 11am in Miami.

 

[Oconeexman]

Can you post it?

From this
To this

 

[LovingGulfLows]

When we dont have the cold air, we have the moisture. When we don't have the moisture, we have the cold air. Classic story in the South. Of course dry air kills our chances here....

 

[JLL1973]

Snow continues here. Ground getting white. Roads are already covered. I would post pics but sometimes the website won’t let me. Says image too large.

 

[Oconeexman]

Newer rap (15z) looking better so far

Yes I can't keep up on phone..it does look better than earlier runs..still blanking sc tho..sad

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12z FV3 hi res looks exactly like the latest HRRR… ??

 

[Oconeexman]

Let's keep this pup trending better and better and get us some dusting pics.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yes I can't keep up on phone..it does look better than earlier runs..still blanking sc tho..sad
View attachment 128637

Our hurdle is just the mountains, but models show redevelopment east, gonna look into this deeper see what’s driving it, it sorta looks like a sfc trough east of the mountains. Gonna check it out

 

[Oconeexman]

12z FV3 hi res looks exactly like the latest HRRR… ??

That's a dang good combo