CMC no longer shows the ice storm.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
CMC no longer shows the ice storm.
Is it out of the question we could pull off a Christmas miracle? This has gotten rather close to a little something too. Given the wild swings even at this range, who knows?
Slight uptick at 0z
that bad news is that we're still trafficking in potential only and not in substance. the good news is that we've reeled in a couple of great model trends.
i've never lost faith in the dec 26th trough, the cold was there; what if we can improve the trough? reader, we have.
easy to see the general change on 5h- great trend for the s/w around Ok/TX (and look at the jolt south west it took at 00z!!)
So this has given the trough enough room and a fighting chance to tilt to neutral somewhere to benefit us in. shape looks better, western trough looks better, pretty sweet.
but the thing that really caught my eye? jet stream. here's another trend.
massive shift westward with the jet max, with much more velocity, and much better shape (see that 'arch' in the jet max off the SC coast? a stronger max with a more accentuated "arch" means more ascent)
moisture will be the limiter here on the heels of this siberian fart, but really good signs tonight. we increased our playoff odds from 10% to 20%.
could be smoke and mirrors but don't think we're as far away as people think
disclaimer: by "we" i mean "we-ilmington", where i'll be during this time period
Good ole FV3! It gets little mention these days, unless it’s showing snow! ?
DobsonCityWx
Member
0.5” around Winston-Salem. 1” possible in Stokes Surry Rockingham
Notably the GFS did show some moisture but it sputtered
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Interesting note from the super-res 0.8km MMFS so far (it's coming in.. slowly but surely..)
The cold air is moving in very fast, especially at the lowest levels. Precip is quickly changing over to freezing rain and snow at the front, with only very light precip ahead of the front. In fact, it already has accumulating snowfall in northern Alabama at 4z.
The cold air is moving in very fast, especially at the lowest levels. Precip is quickly changing over to freezing rain and snow at the front, with only very light precip ahead of the front. In fact, it already has accumulating snowfall in northern Alabama at 4z.
This seems to have Moisture and cold air arriving maybe spitballing by around 2 hours early to AL/GA border compared to 3k NAM
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Good look at this range.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
0.8km MMFS is mostly in for GA..looks realistic. Post-frontal precip dries up quickly as the front moves through. Light snow accumulations possible in the highest elevations.
That day 10 Euro! ???
HRRR jackpot! ?
Brasstown Bald will be a winter wonderland!! I'm sure the access rd will be closed but it's only a 3-4hr hike to the top ... climbing over 2k ft ... ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS is carrying the model support for this 26-27th system atm.
About one-fourth of the 0z suite has snow in central NC
About one-fourth of the 0z suite has snow in central NC
Good model agreement on 3-6”, guess that will work! There’s a lot of moving parts and some funky things going on around iowa as this storm starts to congeal! 
SimeonNC
Member
Again, I need to emphasize that there is a possibility that there could be a snow squall line with the article fun as it sweeps through the Middle Atlantic region even in the areas east of the mountains across the central and Eastern portions of portions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware.
Brent
Member
We shall see if that 1-2 verifies. Hopefully. Trends have been rough since yesterday.
NEGaweather
Member