Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

[Chazwin]

Also nam 3km was about to give us a possible snow shower with the arctic front .. that would be huge if true

That really wouldn’t shock me at all. As I said the trajectory of this cold push appears to be coming from the west southwest which cuts down on the effects of down sloping. Also it looked like the 3kNAM wants to swing a little piece of energy through with the front. Maybe a quick burst of high ratio snow.

 

[Ollie Williams]

@Ollie Williams

Where do you get those reanalysis maps from? I'd like to take a look at some events in 1971, 1989, and 2010.

I made the first map. The second on is from https://weather.us/reanalysis

 

[LukeBarrette]

Speaking of that:

View attachment 127917

I don’t think I get below 0 here in Roanoke but we will see

 

[malak05]

If the moisture lingers/slows another 3-4 hours with the cold front then anyone under those Snow bands in N. AL, TN, NW GA will pick up really good ratio snowfall

 

[DobsonCityWx]

Another thing that seems evident is that the short range modeling is really smashing the front through more aggressively than almost any global.

The I/40 corridor runs a risk of flash frozen sleet on roadways. Maybe down to Troutman. I think a small area is gonna have an unlucky transition when the bottom falls out then be left with temps near 19. It wouldn’t take 30mins of heavy sleet to make things bad for the rest of the day.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[DobsonCityWx]

You can see the bright yellow returns on the 3km NAM blasting through I/40. I could see that narrow line of damaging sleet even further south maybe even Huntersville. All areas would quickly go below freezing before the sleet would have a chance to melt.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

The 26th Clipper just goes poof when it hit the AL/MS line on the ICON still not giving up though! 6 or 7 days away!

 

[SD]

It depends on how much the winds die down. If it calms for even just a couple hours before daybreak, things could plunge in a hurry. Most of these are models are keeping a light breeze going which cuts back on radiational cooling

I'll be honest given this air mass I'm not sure we need to radiate. I think it's also possible places don't make it over 25 on Saturday. I'm really impressed with that's coming

 

[Snowfan]

ICON was close.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

View attachment 127921
ICON was close.

Too close!

 

[Stormsfury]

View attachment 127921
ICON was close.

Orientation of tilt not quite enough yet to do the job

 

[iGRXY]

Woof

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 127922
View attachment 127923
Woof

Colder and 50/50 is in better position. Still a question of if we can get precipitation.

 

[iGRXY]

Jesus we are so close man

 

[ILMRoss]

pretty massive shifts under the hood on this gfs run, we've strung together a really nice winning streak last few model suites

 

[CaryWx]

So what happens, does it just peter out like ICON?

 

[ILMRoss]

if you find a nice peak at grayson highlands state park you will be able to taste the tropopause friday morning, lol

 

[iGRXY]

I know people maybe getting impatient not seeing a storm but we are seeing massive trends to something. At H5 we’ve improved our confluence, building heights over top and creating a nice feed of CAD and cold air. And we have a closed off ULL showing up now. What have we seen this trend to? More digging to the SW with the ULL and eventual Nw trend in precip. At 150 hours, I like where we are sitting. Nice suppressed looked with adequate cold

 

[wxdaniel]

View attachment 127929
View attachment 127930
I know people maybe getting impatient not seeing a storm but we are seeing massive trends to something. At H5 we’ve improved our confluence, building heights over top and creating a nice feed of CAD and cold air. And we have a closed off ULL showing up now. What have we seen this trend to? More digging to the SW and eventual Nw trend. At 150 hours, I like where we are sitting. Nice suppresses looked with adequate cold

While true, it’s just too dry. Having 5 days of subzero temps isn’t the best scenario.