It’ll be interesting to go back and see what the models missed to cause such a big bust. I can’t help but wonder if the little system we’re watching in the southeast today and tonight might have something to do with it
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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It's the same story we've been dealing with for the past decade or so.
The ridiculously progressive northern stream flow makes it too difficult for any storm to dig and become too amped before it gets sheared apart by confluence.
The days where we could get legit winter storms / blizzards such as Jan '99, Dec. '09 or GHD 1 (2011) seem like a distant memory at this point
packfan98
Moderator
Why are you calling out members unnecessarily? The NBM is the National Blend of Models and is used by many outlets and meteorologists.
Stormlover
Member
That's why I put him on ignore a long time ago. It's not like I used some outlier model, I used the conservative blend and he complains, lol
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packfan98
Moderator
I think maybe he didn’t know what NBM was? That’s what I’m going to assume. We will not tolerate berating other members.
ICON tried
12z GFS at least stopped the bleeding with the Midwest system. Still would be a big storm for Western and Northern MI.
Stormlover
Member
GFS
W
WSW
Guest
Some more agreement for a decent snow event for portions of Virginia and West Virginia.GFS
CMC gave us the absolute coldest rain we could see without it being winter precip. A painful thing to look at but we can trend colder.. or warmer..
RollTide18
Member
What is the CMC cooking??
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
CMC features the infamous western Atlantic ridge
same thing russell wilson is cooking imo
(this is analysis, my view is this 27th-28th threat is flimsy, please don't put me in whamby thread)
Stormlover
Member
early next week is a hit, on top of frozen groundWhat is the CMC cooking??
Ron Burgundy
Member
25 in Blairsville and 21 in Columbus? Seems…unlikely.
SnowwxAtl
Member
Seem like some type of ULL dragging in cold air. I could and probably wrong. ?
Stormlover
Member
Canadian with snow, sleet, freezing rain early next week
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ICON did fringe the crystal coast
GFS looks nothing like the CMC, may be a good thing? Who the heck knows anymore.
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GFS gives a post frontal coating of snow to lower VA and northern nc.
No it’s got plenty of cold air in place as it arrives… looks like a big sleet/ice storm with a frozen ground
GEFS may be good. It is picking up on something back west in Texas and Louisiana for our system just right after Christmas. We will see if that translates further east. Nothing was showing up here on previous runs that I just checked.
And, nothing. Great
And, nothing. Great
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I'm curious to see how this thing performs with post frontal flurries. I'm my area, a NW window usually dries up most of them given the downsloping from the cumberlands. We do catch some but a north wind can actutally bring accumulation. I'm not sure I recall a front with a more western angle so maybe we can score some legit showers.
Weird but on college dupage we’re getting the ensemble members from 12 z a few days ago put in as todays 12z members .. has the front coming through on Saturday and not Friday so this was before the faster shift was seen .. welp
iGRXY
Member
Ughhhhhh lol
Trying to reel us back in….
Ughhhhhh lol
Probably the most ideal run in terms of a SE Canada low
iGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
Was about to say that's the best the SE vortex has looked
It's always a week away...???
iGRXY
Member
That's a big change for the better 7 days out.
Actually got a weak gulf low SE of NO on this run
Stormsfury
Member
Oh my
I'll take it at D7 I really fear for our backyards we end up similar to the cmc here. Seasonal trend has been too far E with the western ridge only to have to adjust W in time