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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

12z NAM is a total and complete disaster. The so-called blizzard is basically just a glorified arctic front now. ?
It’ll be interesting to go back and see what the models missed to cause such a big bust. I can’t help but wonder if the little system we’re watching in the southeast today and tonight might have something to do with it
 
It’ll be interesting to go back and see what the models missed to cause such a big bust. I can’t help but wonder if the little system we’re watching in the southeast today and tonight might have something to do with it

It's the same story we've been dealing with for the past decade or so.

The ridiculously progressive northern stream flow makes it too difficult for any storm to dig and become too amped before it gets sheared apart by confluence.

The days where we could get legit winter storms / blizzards such as Jan '99, Dec. '09 or GHD 1 (2011) seem like a distant memory at this point
 
Why are you calling out members unnecessarily? The NBM is the National Blend of Models and is used by many outlets and meteorologists.
That's why I put him on ignore a long time ago. It's not like I used some outlier model, I used the conservative blend and he complains, lol
 
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ICON tried

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GEFS may be good. It is picking up on something back west in Texas and Louisiana for our system just right after Christmas. We will see if that translates further east. Nothing was showing up here on previous runs that I just checked.

And, nothing. Great
 
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I'm curious to see how this thing performs with post frontal flurries. I'm my area, a NW window usually dries up most of them given the downsloping from the cumberlands. We do catch some but a north wind can actutally bring accumulation. I'm not sure I recall a front with a more western angle so maybe we can score some legit showers.
 
Weird but on college dupage we’re getting the ensemble members from 12 z a few days ago put in as todays 12z members .. has the front coming through on Saturday and not Friday so this was before the faster shift was seen .. welp
 
Needs to get neutral in a hurry, which it looks like it's trying. Looks really good. Plus, there is more energy up north, so even if this doesn't work out, there are various combinations still on the table. Liking where things sit att.
 
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