CMC might go for it 
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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
so do we trust GFS or not? im so confused.
I’d imagine this is too warm 
It's hooked so far back it might cut lol
I think the cold won’t be an issue.
It probably would on the cmc
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I approve yalls storm! 
CMC is trending similarly in the Atlantic and pacific but it held the wave back a bit to far west this run, western ridge position was suboptimal
CMC probably a western Piedmont ice storm
Some moisture tried to get going in southern Alabama but it failed.
buckinbronco
Member
Yep, ice storm on CMC
Good trends today. GFS/CMC blend gives the board a shot at least. GEFS and CMCE should both be improved I suspect. What's semi-interesting is that the wave dropping down isn't flying at mach-speed given the slowed down eastern U.S. flow, so that would slow the precip movement potentially. Let's see what the UK and Euro show
Last frame of the 18z MMFS 
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iGRXY
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J1C1111
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I hear ya, but it has to beat those endless days of 100s with no end in sight that you had back in the summer. Shock to the system definitely a understand.
The models seem to be trending in a good direction right now. This last storm should have shown us to value the euro/unmet/cmc combo. I don’t really care what the gfs spits out. Also I will say none of the operational models have been great lately but the gfs is especially bad in this pattern.
The way we trended the west coast is remarkable 
Stormlover
Member
Yep, Canadian goes wild in north Ala early next week
Brent
Member
It wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't windy
What is that on the 26th that the GFS is showing? Clipper? If we can get that baby to close off and not be so moisture starved. I think we had a system in Jan/Feb 2017 that dropped in and closed off then produced some decent numbers east of the mountains.
Just need to be careful and not have western ridge to far west
This morning's UKMet looks a little better than tonight's GFS when the wave is running thru Nebraska (better spacing on the UKMet)
iGRXY
Member
The changes we are seeing in the medium range are crazy. Energy coming down into the US is stronger and the ridge out west looks better as we are connecting with the -NAO
J1C1111
Member
I know. Your right. That wind will cut you in half.
Yeah it has to drop in just right....small needle, but at least we have a shot given the cold out front. But delay just a bit, and the cold is gone
Pretty lovely trend here 
iGRXY
Member
Much better consolidated energy in the plains with further separation from the TPV. Taller ridge. I expect some good members this run
Yeah, I don't believe I've seen a day in my life in Alabama with a high in the single digits. Certainly not in my adult life.
GEFS are in agreement that a clipper piece of energy will be heading down the stove pipe. 
Even when you’ve got a streak of bad luck a ULL generally levels the playing field for everyone who sucks at snow. Which is 99% of this board. We can work with what the Canadian is showing.
Another view of the improvement on the GEFS....last 5 run trend loop
iGRXY
Member
Better cold push too lol
iGRXY
Member
So much better. Strong vort now with much better separation from the TPV. Also has a better cold push
Yeah that's interesting as you can see on that loop I just posted that the heights are dropping all along the E Coast. Better ridge our west and better -NAO....so colder as you mentioned
iGRXY
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Beautiful
iGRXY
Member
I expect some good members.
Yeah this will work.
I’ve been working this evening and haven’t had a chance to really look deep at the models until now, and I gotta say if the ICON is right with its cold push on Friday, and it has support, Friday will be the type of day that most of us don’t experience often. It’s all in the trajectory of the cold air. It’s push in from the west in Alabama and Georgia and from the west southwest in the Carolinas. The depiction and temperature drops it’s showing looks very much like the January 1985 Arctic outbreak. Now I’m not saying that this airmass is on par with that, I’m just saying the push looks like it could be as impressive. Also if the ICON is right, don’t be shocked to maybe see a quick little burst of snow showers or flurries east of the mountains