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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GFS tried but it failed.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
If the ridge can sharpen and get this negative it will be a good one
CMC is not bad either. We’re trying to get back some life 
CMC … 
Cary_Snow95
Member
Gfs loses the northern stream a bit so it’ll be marginal but good trends
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Gotta love how the cmc and gfs agree for one model run. If you check the vort on the gfs you can see the same energy jolt 1000 miles west over 3 runs and strengthen. Now this was where others and I referred to days ago about not knowing how it'll play out until we get a better idea of the 23rd systems track. That one influences everything beyond it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We've still got ~7-8 days left to go w/ this, which is an eternity for a winter storm. It's definitely good to see though that this overall threat window hasn't gone away yet.
I'm more curious to see if the ensembles (esp EPS & GEFS) will perk up today or tomorrow.
I'm more curious to see if the ensembles (esp EPS & GEFS) will perk up today or tomorrow.
GEM has about a 2" snowfall from Jackson to Birmingham and north. Looks like Oxford to memphis gets a bit more - maybe 3-4"
Cary_Snow95
Member
This would be quite the run if the northern stream came down and joined the party
With so much energy flying down the ridge, it's hard to believe the period after the first storm is completely quiet.
severestorm
Member
Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
While it’s a small possibility, we’re more worried about actually getting a wave to amplify right now. We can worry about those things later. I highly doubt it wouldReality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Cutoff and stay stuck around there for several days, although it’s not Impossible. It’s one run where a random cutoff stalled.
Parker
Member
Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Did you see the frames 24-36 hours before this?
Gefs = faster moving vortex, more western ridge 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Reality check: it's one operational model run 9 days out.