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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

Pretty big change on the Euro that's for sure
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One thing about this threat is that all models have a similar look and we aren’t relying on the GFS on an island by itself. That’s encouraging at least.

Have also seen Webb, Fro and others always mention the best chance of a storm is at the end of the pattern when it takes a turn to the other side.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NBM isn't bad, but I think we could use some really large-scale height super ensemble height anomaly and circulation maps that go out to day 15 & cover the last few days of NWP runs as sort of an integrated super ensemble. That would take all the paid sites we use now to the next level and I think give everyone a much better understanding of what's actually happening in general + trends, etc.
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I think a lot of our issues with guidance comes partly from lack of data in many areas around the globe.. like trying to make a perfect spaghetti but if something is missing, ruins the final product
 
Stevo24 said:
If this were to really become something to watch, when would you say we should start seeing a legit storm on the models. Maybe end of week?
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If it’s legit….

Next 24-36 hours will be trends towards a great 500mb setup and glimpses of hope at the surface. By Wednesday we better hope we see something nice at the surface.
 
Arcc said:
Trust those images only if you want to be disappointed. I don’t even know why they exist.
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You're right. I'm quickly learning how useless ensembles are for storms. Means are skewed by large members mostly. Seeing what percentage of members show accumulating snow and ignoring the amounts seems to be best. But even then caution is advised. Just this past week 30+ out of 51 members had snow for GSP, CLT and RDU. Even Atlanta had decent amounts. We see how that worked out.
 
metwannabe said:
Hopefully guys with better access will chime in soon but seems to be a tick increase in precip on the EPS, guess there might be a few members biting?

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Don't let the gif fool you, it's a 24 hr qpf and I'm looking at the increase along the coastal inland sections
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You're right. I'm quickly learning how useless ensembles are for storms. Means are skewed by large members mostly. Seeing what percentage of members show accumulating snow and ignoring the amounts seems to be best.
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It’s not the ensemble part that is garbage, it’s that type of chart. It is the worse form of looking at the 6hr QPF/850mb temp chart and then assuming it’s snow.
 
All right, who can discern max wind gust behind front and Wind Chill (Apps-East)? Cant trust Euro and most models as the tend to be high most of the time on these guest. Which is most reliable SD?
Guessing high peaks get some crazy negative 20-30 windchill forecast.
 
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