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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

NCSNOW said:
All right, who can discern max wind gust behind front and Wind Chill (Apps-East)? Cant trust Euro and most models as the tend to be high most of the time on these guest. Which is most reliable SD?
Guessing high peaks get some crazy negative 20-30 windchill forecast.
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Models will probably be better here than a tropical system honestly. The isobars are stacked on the back of the front so we likely rip right as it passes then slowly taper from there
 
Winter storm watches went out this morning, out to Waterloo. Seems like it’s a little early for a storm that doesn’t even start till Wednesday afternoon at the earliest.
 
The cold is definitely gonna be legit but will the snow be? Model trends have been drier since last night but the NWS HWO an hour ago was still bullish Screenshot_20221219-140919.png


A band of snow is expected to spread across the area behind
the front Thursday into Thursday evening. Uncertainties remain
with snow location and intensity, however a window of near
blizzard like conditions may develop across northeast Oklahoma
where visibilities are greatly reduced by blowing snow.
Overall snowfall amounts remain forecast in the one to four
inch range with highest amounts near the Oklahoma Kansas border.
Stay tuned to the latest forecasts and expect travel impacts
across the region on Thursday.
 
12z MMFS
SD said:
Models will probably be better here than a tropical system honestly. The isobars are stacked on the back of the front so we likely rip right as it passes then slowly taper from there
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euro is usually high because it has a bias to underestimate friction, which is a big problem when it comes to strong gradient winds & forest. I’d say chop 10-20mph off of the max prog from the euro
 
Been quietly working away at this ice storm climatology for NC (linked below) and some of the preliminary results I've found from the storms I've analyzed (not shown) are really interesting and honestly not what I initially expected. Should have another little event to look at/archive after later this week.
Webberweather's NC Ice Storm Climatology (1992-Present)

Capture.JPG
 
All the models wind clown maps have 40-60 mph gust just about everywhere lol....peaking around 9am-12 noon here in central and eastern NC, obviously earlier for the out west folks....typically I say take these with a grain of salt but in this case given all the parameters we might actually see some gust into the low 50's

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J.C. said:
Icon coming in colder, Friday late morning:
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It is really rare to see a temp drop over ne ga and the upstate like those being modeled. Besides the mountains slowing it down,, Normally downslope warming also keeps temps warmer. If temps such as the icon verify, teens in the afternoon in ne ga, sc..it will be exceptionally rare. The euro and Canadian show low 20s in the afternoon which is still very impressive. Truly looks like one of the most impressive cold frontal passages in decades..especially for the upper Savannah River Valley.
 
bigstick10 said:
so 3 above at ATL at 3pm? Wow.
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Yeah, don't expect that to verify, but I find it interesting that its sticking to its guns. However, both the Euro and the GFS show upper teens Friday afternoon, so its not totally crazy.
 
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