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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

CMC no longer shows the ice storm.
 
CaryWx said:
So what happens, does it just peter out like ICON?
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that bad news is that we're still trafficking in potential only and not in substance. the good news is that we've reeled in a couple of great model trends.

i've never lost faith in the dec 26th trough, the cold was there; what if we can improve the trough? reader, we have.

easy to see the general change on 5h- great trend for the s/w around Ok/TX (and look at the jolt south west it took at 00z!!)
gfs_z500_vort_us_fh108_trend.gif
So this has given the trough enough room and a fighting chance to tilt to neutral somewhere to benefit us in. shape looks better, western trough looks better, pretty sweet.

but the thing that really caught my eye? jet stream. here's another trend.
gfs_uv250_us_fh126_trend.gif
massive shift westward with the jet max, with much more velocity, and much better shape (see that 'arch' in the jet max off the SC coast? a stronger max with a more accentuated "arch" means more ascent)

moisture will be the limiter here on the heels of this siberian fart, but really good signs tonight. we increased our playoff odds from 10% to 20%.

could be smoke and mirrors but don't think we're as far away as people think

disclaimer: by "we" i mean "we-ilmington", where i'll be during this time period
 
ILMRoss said:
that bad news is that we're still trafficking in potential only and not in substance. the good news is that we've reeled in a couple of great model trends.

i've never lost faith in the dec 26th trough, the cold was there; what if we can improve the trough? reader, we have.

easy to see the general change on 5h- great trend for the s/w around Ok/TX (and look at the jolt south west it took at 00z!!)
View attachment 127934
So this has given the trough enough room and a fighting chance to tilt to neutral somewhere to benefit us in. shape looks better, western trough looks better, pretty sweet.

but the thing that really caught my eye? jet stream. here's another trend.
View attachment 127935
massive shift westward with the jet max, with much more velocity, and much better shape (see that 'arch' in the jet max off the SC coast? a stronger max with a more accentuated "arch" means more ascent)

moisture will be the limiter here on the heels of this siberian fart, but really good signs tonight. we increased our playoff odds from 10% to 20%.

could be smoke and mirrors but don't think we're as far away as people think

disclaimer: by "we" i mean "we-ilmington", where i'll be during this time period
Click to expand...
Notably the GFS did show some moisture but it sputtered gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh108-120.gif
 
Interesting note from the super-res 0.8km MMFS so far (it's coming in.. slowly but surely..)

The cold air is moving in very fast, especially at the lowest levels. Precip is quickly changing over to freezing rain and snow at the front, with only very light precip ahead of the front. In fact, it already has accumulating snowfall in northern Alabama at 4z.
1671599055007.png1671599083064.png1671599130670.png1671599258768.png
 
bouncycorn said:
Interesting note from the super-res 0.8km MMFS so far (it's coming in.. slowly but surely..)

The cold air is moving in very fast, especially at the lowest levels. Precip is quickly changing over to freezing rain and snow at the front, with only very light precip ahead of the front. In fact, it already has accumulating snowfall in northern Alabama at 4z.
View attachment 127937View attachment 127938View attachment 127939View attachment 127942
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This seems to have Moisture and cold air arriving maybe spitballing by around 2 hours early to AL/GA border compared to 3k NAM
 
Good model agreement on 3-6”, guess that will work! There’s a lot of moving parts and some funky things going on around iowa as this storm starts to congeal! 4AEA3269-CB47-4B1D-AB0A-5247919B6D2F.png80FD5209-2DF9-439F-A59B-99E1673F70BA.pngFB00DCFD-4422-4F13-A096-2CCB41D43292.png5892B34E-24E1-4E60-B15C-6F43D6ADEF53.png
 


Again, I need to emphasize that there is a possibility that there could be a snow squall line with the article fun as it sweeps through the Middle Atlantic region even in the areas east of the mountains across the central and Eastern portions of portions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware.
 
NWS calling for 10F Friday night for Alex City. That is 6-8F AML. Probably about the same for Saturday. Easily coldest since 2013-2014.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s a pretty nice improvement on the 06z eps. Stronger/more south TPV coexisting with our energy still at a optimal spot resulted in a colder run aloft and at the sfc View attachment 127975
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So with a retreating air mass, what would we essentially need to happen to bring more cold air into the picture for the 27th-28th without pushing our LP away?
 
Robert West said:
So with a retreating air mass, what would we essentially need to happen to bring more cold air into the picture for the 27th-28th without pushing our LP away?
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Send TPV more SE, towards SE Canada, amplify western ridge, slow down GOA trough and - tilt it. introduce northern stream Energy or its components into the system at the right time. I like that energy placement on the EPS right now it’s good where it is
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Send TPV more SE, towards SE Canada, amplify western ridge, slow down GOA trough and - tilt it. introduce northern stream Energy or its components into the system at the right time. I like that energy placement on the EPS right now it’s good where it is
Click to expand...
Thank yall! That makes sense, was confused about a couple things. Cleared it up well.
 
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