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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

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I'll ride the CMC FWIW
 
Let’s be honest 00z runs are less than ideal so far. When you’re hugging he 84 hr NAM, it’s time to re-evaluate your expectations. Tonight’s Euro is gonna be a heart breaker for those already on the fringe. If you have the means, head towards Banner Elk this weekend. You won’t lose there
Tarheel1 said:
I’ll bet this is gonna be the first time in a lot of runs, the gfs ensembles or mean, don’t even touch SC!
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yeah we’ll be in the first blue color this run. By tomorrow night we’ll be in the grey. By Friday we’ll be hoping for a freak ULL like everyone to our south! Just make sure your gutters are clean of leafs and debris before Saturday. It’s gonna be a gully washer
 
DarkKnight said:
I wouldn’t be too worried. I think the models are under doing the high pressure. Just think if it was 2-3 mb stronger. No worries.
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HP erodes quickly, low up in SE Canada. Euro doesn't have that....who knows who is right.


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Like Charlie mention before still days away for this storm and many more changes are coming. Maybe not for my area, but I'm hoping and praying for the ULL to do well for my northern peeps in Bama
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Let’s be hones 00z runs are less than ideal so far. When you’re hugging he 84 hr NAM, it’s time to re-evaluate your expectations. Tonight’s Euro is gonna be a heart breaker for those already on the fringe. If you have the means, head towards Banner Elk this weekend. You won’t lose there

yeah we’ll be in the first blue color this run. By tomorrow night we’ll be in the grey. By Friday we’ll be hoping for a freak ULL like everyone to our south! Just make sure your gutters are clean of leafs and debris before Saturday. It’s gonna be a gully washer
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I think everyone's snow hopes are way to high. But given the CAD strength (that's already pretty significant and its being under modeled), sleet and ZR will be much more widespread than what's depicted on nwp ptypes

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 
But the 12z Euro said I had a 90% chance of seeing an inch of snow this weekend :( I want my money back!
 
So I don't post a lot because I try to stay in my lane, although weather -- and in particular, winter weather in North Georgia -- fascinates me. But I've kept a log of every winter weather event that has impacted MBY since we moved into our house near Lake Lanier in NE Forsyth County in 2010. I wish I had done this growing up, to be honest.

Starting with the winter of 2010-11, I've logged TWO events in December: The White Christmas in 2010, and last year's stunning snowfall.

I share that to say, in particular for my Georgia peeps, the fact we're tracking a potential winter storm in early December for the second year in a row indeed is rare. Yes, the model flip-flop is frustrating. We all can argue about how the GFS doesn't handle the CAD, which model is better in the 4-6 day range, etc.

We have a long way to go flushing out this one. It's almost Wednesday morning here. I'm as anxious and excited and nervous as everybody, as I am every time we have a shot at one of these. Let's get the energy ashore on the West Coast, get some sampling, and go from there as we try to strike really, really early for a second consecutive winter.

It's not easy here because it's not supposed to be. Otherwise, we'd be Minnesota or Western New York and this would be no big deal, LOL. Let's enjoy the pursuit.

Back to lurking.

--30--
 
Global models notoriously underestimate both high pressure systems in mid latitudes and CAD strength. Give this event some time and we may get some interesting stuff going on, particularly when mesos come into better range. I would hate to see a banana high/gulf low setup wasted! It's been a looooonnnnnggggggggg time since we've seen this type of setup (banana high/gulfcoast low)
 
FV3 should be used with caution in my opinion. It has seemed worse than GFS during the past 6 months but I don't have any statistics on accuracy or mae.
 
bouncycorn said:
FV3 should be used with caution in my opinion. It has seemed worse than GFS during the past 6 months but I don't have any statistics on accuracy or mae.
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It's accumulation map always seems off
 
I think the Nam has a better handle on the low being south than the gfs. Gfs bounces the low around
 
FWIW, nam12 has consistently had a significantly stronger/larger high pressure block in long range with this system than any other major model. It has also trended more in that direction with each run. Interesting but probably not worth a ton.
 
accu35 said:
I think the Nam has a better handle on the low being south than the gfs. Gfs bounces the low around
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Yes thank you, until the low gets sampled by the onshore data probably sometime tomorrow. These models don’t know how to handle the low. That’s why it bouncing so much. I just watch the fvs-gfs have the low down in the Gulf of Mexico and send it due north in southern Louisiana from hrs 90-96.
 
DarkKnight said:
Yes thank you, until the low gets sampled by the onshore data probably sometime tomorrow. These models don’t know how to handle the low. That’s why it bouncing so much. I just watch the fvs-gfs have the low down in the Gulf of Mexico and send it due north in southern Louisiana from hrs 90-96.
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Yeah I saw that lol. Stupid how it loses its steering
 
Lol, almost every member on gefs have the backside energy digging into Alabama, and about everyone has little accumulation . Someone post it for me.
 
Server is getting hammered friends.

Live thread off for now while I change some stuff.
 
For some reason I can't post the map, but gefs look a tiny bit better for nc and yeah I'm getting booted off the page randomly
 
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