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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

In the past hasn’t these storms went north. Then trend back south about two days out in the past? I mean maybe the high pressure will keep it pushed further south.
 
The navgem looks ok

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We need that low up in Maine back to give more confluence up north. Maybe a lot still has to do with timing of the shortwave, but we still need that feature stronger. Still time, in my experience models rarely get that feature right until nearly go time.
 
Come on GFS, I know you speak English, I know you can tell me that the new data is looking great for the SE.
 
If this doesn’t pan out. And it probably won’t for most outside the mountains. Then we probably have another threat late December hopefully
 
Actually, today was not all bad. The morning runs were good, at least for NC. In fact, they were better overall than even just yesterday. The farther north runs did not start until this afternoon.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Actually, today was not all bad. The morning runs were good, at least for NC. The farther north runs did not start until this afternoon.
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Being in upstate sc it wasn’t good for mby. I’m north of I-85 at least but I don’t expect to get much
 
Brick Tamland said:
Actually, today was not all bad. The morning runs were good, at least for NC. In fact, they were better overall than even just yesterday. The farther north runs did not start until this afternoon.
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Brick you’ve been on these weather boards a long time. You and I both know today’s runs brought our odds down considerably. Does that mean we quit tracking and give up hope? Hell no
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Brick you’ve been on these weather boards a long time. You and I both know today’s runs brought our odds down considerably. Does that mean we quit tracking and give up hope? Hell no
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I second that. Seen this before, we've been let down, but we've also scored against all modeling odds.
 
It’s only Monday and I fully expect some jumps or new solutions to reveal themselves this week. Getting worked up about “trends” is like asking in my backyard questions several days too early. Models are going to present new solutions before we get to the trend phase. Give it some time for the CAD to become more pronounced and for other players on the field to be sampled and timed. I wouldn’t be throwing in the towel anywhere in the Carolinas unless I lived at like Oak Island or something.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Actually, today was not all bad. The morning runs were good, at least for NC. In fact, they were better overall than even just yesterday. The farther north runs did not start until this afternoon.
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Are you speaking for yourself or board wide?

Nevermind, I see you said NC.
 
I don’t think anyone is giving up, I think being a little realistic and realizing, with the information we have, we aren’t heading in the right direction. I don’t see why taking notice to that is giving up.
 
Myself I think the cutoff for wintry weather will be the I85 corridor. If you are North of there in upstate or NC then I think you are ok. Everyone else its gonna take a bit more luck to get anything frozen.

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My question is how is the low pressure coming so far north? With a strong high? Does that even make since?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s only Monday and I fully expect some jumps or new solutions to reveal themselves this week. Getting worked up about “trends” is like asking in my backyard questions several days too early. Models are going to present new solutions before we get to the trend phase. Give it some time for the CAD to become more pronounced and for other players on the field to be sampled and timed. I wouldn’t be throwing in towel anywhere in the Carolinas unless I lived at like Oak Island or something.
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I don't think anyone commented on it but the secondary low on the EURO actually had several inches late near Wilmington late in the run unless it was fake news.
 
Bsud said:
Myself I think the cutoff for wintry weather will be the I85 corridor. If you are North of there in upstate or NC then I think you are ok. Everyone else its gonna take a bit more luck to get anything frozen.

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Seems like a very reasonable assessment given our model output today.
 
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