B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How many north runs have we had today versus runs that have gone south? It is probably even at this point. Still have a lot of time to see what really happens.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Oh true forgot about that. We’ll see, any more jogs NW and I may be in some trouble. Long way to go!
Fountainguy97
Member
Brutal NW shift today
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So, we are just going to ignore all the runs from yesterday and earlier today that were further south?
Fountainguy97
Member
No definitely not and that’s still on the table. But the model error gets smaller and smaller rapidly from here on out. Those runs yesterday are a day old. These runs have the latest info and are seeing the storm more clearly.
Chance of a full rebound back to yesterday’s solutions is fairly slim IMO.
Never say never though
Maybe that’s what’s causing the models to shift N today!? If the wave is already that strong, it’ll stay stronger on its way across the states and make it climb more North
Nothing “brutal” or “dramatic” has occurred today. Governmental agencies (like the WPC) have a good hand on things with current probabilities. They do not swing with op runs or wish cast. There is a clear signal for our first snowy winter storm for many people on this board. The sleet lines and etc. that skew totals will always be unclear..sometimes they can be revealed early but we are nowhere near that stage yet.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
No. They have just a little less value but they're still relevant.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yes, this is updated data
500mb opens up as it comes in to central Baja, energy in the inter-mountain west comes in to play and 500mb closes off again in the southern Plains. That's your TN Valley surface reflection, energy entering MT around day 4.5 is the wildcard and responsible for aiding the SLP transfer/intensification off the SE/MA coast.
Thank you
Just saying, if you all are quick to toss a negative solution, it's ok to acknowledge it also. Those good trends were yesterday, we are trending in the wrong direction with this storm board wide today. I get that it's going to change, no doubt. But if there is a trend, today's trend is bad. It's not yesterday anymore.
BillyMurrayWx
Member
True....I think we all just want to see something frozen to give us hope for the rest of Winter.
Oh i understand, trust me. It's been close to 5 years for us in Columbia.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yes today was a bad day in terms of runs, and we will see where we are tomorrow. I've seen weird comebacks before and I've seen it only get worse until verification. Not too late for a comeback but since our system is in view it'll be a bit harder to change much.
Fountainguy97
Member
We could all use a foot with how the models have teased us with their long range forecasts for winter.
The bottom line is today was bad. But that doesn’t mean tomorrow won’t change again.
Definitely, honestly, it seems unfamiliar that we are seeing a NW trend already. Normally, they happen at the last second. So maybe, some sort of South trend will happen at the last second. Let's hope.
Nomanslandva
Member
Yea, 12 GFS was so far south I got blanked. FV3 at 12z was south too. 18z on those 2 did look much warmer/north but do you trust 18z? Ensembles seem to still look good for many so I think focus on them is key for now