TWC says the same thing.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Euro also keying in on that area SW of Roanoke, 2.8-3.2" liquid equivalent certainly has my interest. Based on the ens means, surface and H5, I am of the opinion we are looking at a Miller B with the leading southern stream wave sending a weak slp up the TN Valley.
Northern energy comes in late and aids in the transfer, intensification off the SE coast. A stall in eastern NC, or near the VA capes is on the table as the system begins to stack, followed by an exit stage right.
Most of the guidance supports wide changeover zones with the full mixed bag, further evidence we are looking at a hybrid vs a true dominant gulf low which paints narrow transition zones.
The writings on the wall, refrain from taking the ops as gospel at this stage, big time storm coming for those in the CAD areas with the epicenter likely SW to central VA. Those on the periphery will still see significant impacts.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It has been going south the last 2 days, and now we have a couple of runs going north. It will be okay.
Areas north, northeast and east of ATL (for upstate SC folks as well) should still be monitoring this upcoming winter storm. 850mb temps drop at or slightly below freezing as the low pushes off to the east. SFC temps will be at freezing or slightly below during most of the event. I'd say a freezing rain/mix at first changing to all snow/sleet.
Kylo
Member
Looks close to the GEFS mean.
Jessy89
Member
Wspa just said it’s trending to rain in upstate
Kylo
Member
Like the Navgem. If this gets north I will be worried
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cg...rea=nvg_namer&prod=prp&dtg=2018120318&set=All
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cg...rea=nvg_namer&prod=prp&dtg=2018120318&set=All
I don’t know but if it can, it will happen here in the upstate
only gave me 12”..toss
I know I won't be able to see much in the front half, rain here, but that 2ndary that might form has me intreuged .sounds should support snow.
TWC now calling for mostly rain for Raleigh on Sunday...fortunately their long range forecasts are mostly determined by single operational model runs.
RollTide18
Member
How do you think the secondary wave would perform in Alabama?
Storm5
Member
Too much hope being put into a “ second wave “ why worry about that when the models can’t even figure out the main system ?
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dsaur
Member
Yeah, I don't get why they torture us. It's bad enough we love winter weather, but live in the deep south. Now they have to give us a model, that lures you in with fantastic, yet plausible..that's the knife....scenarios. Comparing with the over blown cold of Goofy, the still implausible/yet plausible compared to Goofy, look from Goofy junior, makes it seem just possible, lol. It's hateful to treat us like this. At least with the Euro. it's just no....all the time no.
Glad you trimmed the trees, that's the biggest thing. If it will hit the house coming straight down, or swinging get rid of it if you can
dsaur
Member
The thing is if it can truly catch a 1037/1040 cad, it'll be my new buddy. That kind of cad puts normality aside.
Honestly don't know .As storm said we can't figure out the lead wave. My guess is sounding should support something wintry
WeatherAddiction
Member
Anyone think measurable snowfall could happen in the Midlands of SC?
Avalanche
Member
Hurricane, i live west of raleigh nc and ill be driving to mt pilot nc or northward to see some snow.
Avalanche
Member
Lets just keep model watching before we write anything off just yet. And...it may take the day of radar depictions to see whats going to happen.
Someone said the 18z EPS was bumped north, but how much north did it go?