Jessy89
Member
I hope your right I’m just north of 85
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
NAM has the energy digging into Baja but it digs it a bit further north with a 1039 high at the end of the run.
The NAM will bring in the goods in a couple days and re amp everyone including myself, always does haha
Sandstorm94
Member
I live in Orangeburg, how do you think I feel?
Once were close to this event, I'm talking <18 hours, remember that the hrrr typically shows it way to warm for cad areas, very notorious for that until it is 4 hours out then it changes it back to a colder solution, just like those 2 November events for the mtn/foothills, just had to put this out there even tho were still days out
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The s/w entering California by 48 hours is noticeably less consolidated & more diffuse on the 0z NAM than it is on the 18z GFS. We still have a few days to sort this out & either one of these solutions could be correct, but small details like this grow upscale non-linearly into large ones and are important to monitor for those of us downstream
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The HRRR has a pretty horrendous BL mixing bias that causes it to scour out CAD too quickly, if we end up w/ a CAD event, I would definitely caution those on this forum from using it except when its within several hours or so of verification.
This is a really good post. There has not been any dramatic shifting. But there has been some shifting. And it just illustrates how precarious this situation is. Small shifts in feature position or interaction can quite substantially change the outcome for many. There will be a lot more shifting.
My guess is what I said earlier: I think the SW will come ashore stronger than modeled. I think the CAD will be slower to erode than modeled. I do not see enough blocking to press everything far enough south for a southern sliding Miller A that wallops the entire SE. It will end up being Miller B-ish with marginal cold. CAD regions end up with a good winter storm. That’s what seems most likely to me, especially given the fact that models seem to always overestimate the cold press at 5-10 day leads.
At this range it’s more about confidence not direction for anyone in this line of work. No one wants to be buried on a model solution on a Monday when the snow is several days away. There is no need to be overly realistic or concerned about specifics when we know that we don’t have all the data that we need to make a legitimate forecast.
Well, you got hit last year. I heard Orangeburg county did pretty well depending on what part of the county you were in. So technically, it's been longer for us in Columbia. But as a whole, yes. Yall see it a lot less than us.
I must say, that's a pretty ok look so far with the NAM building in the CAD high....
TD's.....some nice and dry push coming down as well.
TD's.....some nice and dry push coming down as well.
Looks pretty good. Would love to see lower teens getting into the Carolinas, though.
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
is there a study on this you can link?
VA dp’s In the teens. That’s a hallmark for a good ol’ fashion deep CAD event..If true
Here is another thing as well, we do have a pretty fresh cool to chilly airmass before this . Might not mean much, but we are not fighting 60-70's and trying to get them down to freezing .
If we keep that push coming down it should be close .
*If* the CAD areas do score there is a growing chance of damaging floods by the end of the week. More heavy rain on top of muddy or leftover wintry mess would not be good. Could be the bigger story for some, two major precip events in early December on top of a wet Fall.
Jessy89
Member
Icon is warm
Kylo
Member
Best icon run so far. Weaker low, progressive and south.