• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

So I don't post a lot because I try to stay in my lane, although weather -- and in particular, winter weather in North Georgia -- fascinates me. But I've kept a log of every winter weather event that has impacted MBY since we moved into our house near Lake Lanier in NE Forsyth County in 2010. I wish I had done this growing up, to be honest.

Starting with the winter of 2010-11, I've logged TWO events in December: The White Christmas in 2010, and last year's stunning snowfall.

I share that to say, in particular for my Georgia peeps, the fact we're tracking a potential winter storm in early December for the second year in a row indeed is rare. Yes, the model flip-flop is frustrating. We all can argue about how the GFS doesn't handle the CAD, which model is better in the 4-6 day range, etc.

We have a long way to go flushing out this one. It's almost Wednesday morning here. I'm as anxious and excited and nervous as everybody, as I am every time we have a shot at one of these. Let's get the energy ashore on the West Coast, get some sampling, and go from there as we try to strike really, really early for a second consecutive winter.

It's not easy here because it's not supposed to be. Otherwise, we'd be Minnesota or Western New York and this would be no big deal, LOL. Let's enjoy the pursuit.

Back to lurking.

--30--
 
Global models notoriously underestimate both high pressure systems in mid latitudes and CAD strength. Give this event some time and we may get some interesting stuff going on, particularly when mesos come into better range. I would hate to see a banana high/gulf low setup wasted! It's been a looooonnnnnggggggggg time since we've seen this type of setup (banana high/gulfcoast low)
 
bouncycorn said:
FV3 should be used with caution in my opinion. It has seemed worse than GFS during the past 6 months but I don't have any statistics on accuracy or mae.
Click to expand...
It's accumulation map always seems off
 
I think the Nam has a better handle on the low being south than the gfs. Gfs bounces the low around
 
accu35 said:
I think the Nam has a better handle on the low being south than the gfs. Gfs bounces the low around
Click to expand...
Yes thank you, until the low gets sampled by the onshore data probably sometime tomorrow. These models don’t know how to handle the low. That’s why it bouncing so much. I just watch the fvs-gfs have the low down in the Gulf of Mexico and send it due north in southern Louisiana from hrs 90-96.
 
DarkKnight said:
Yes thank you, until the low gets sampled by the onshore data probably sometime tomorrow. These models don’t know how to handle the low. That’s why it bouncing so much. I just watch the fvs-gfs have the low down in the Gulf of Mexico and send it due north in southern Louisiana from hrs 90-96.
Click to expand...
Yeah I saw that lol. Stupid how it loses its steering
 
Lol, almost every member on gefs have the backside energy digging into Alabama, and about everyone has little accumulation . Someone post it for me.
 
Server is getting hammered friends.

Live thread off for now while I change some stuff.
 
For some reason I can't post the map, but gefs look a tiny bit better for nc and yeah I'm getting booted off the page randomly
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top