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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

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Better back energy with CMC
 
Lol the Trailing energy and possible light backside snow is still 6 days away . Tennessee extreme northern bama and Georgia people have plenty of time for it to trend better . Of course the flip side is it could also go the other way


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UK has a nice track but you can see at hour 120 panel off these crappy maps the HP is gone.

96 and 120 panels
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Storm5 said:
Lol the Trailing energy and possible light backside snow is still 6 days away . Tennessee extreme northern bama and Georgia people have plenty of time for it to trend better . Of course the flip side is it could also go the other way


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Click to expand...

What about central Alabama?
 
DarkKnight said:
I know this is long range nam when I am showing hour 84. But you can’t help too noticed that the dew points are 10-15 difference between the nam and gfs. This just backs up what I was saying just a few degrees can make a big difference.

GFS dew points 84 hours
View attachment 8352

NAM dew points 84 hours
View attachment 8353
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Looking a the Surface Maps of the GFS on TT compared to the 2M Dewpoint Maps it appears to me the winter precip takes on similar oreintation to the upper 20’s dewpoint locations. If that’s the case I like what the NAM is showing at this range.
 
If this were a frontal passage you can best believe that HP would be anchored and clear out the entire eastern seaboard.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
850s are good but the 2m is blazing...ugh. Maybe it can cool down in the future because there is still a way to go.

and lol, I don't think I'd call this backside stuff. This energy looks separate. I mean it even pops a separate coastal.
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It’s the trailing energy diving down the backside of the trough .
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I’ll bet this is gonna be the first time in a lot of runs, the gfs ensembles or mean, don’t even touch SC!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I feel like it erodes the CAD way to quick
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What, the GFS? Never....

I mean seriously, I don't post much but I've been following wintry events for several years now and I don't think I've ever seen the GFS realize the full scale of the duration, expanse, or intensity of a CAD signature. Granted there are other factors going into this (e.g. 850mb low strength/position, which unsurprisingly the 00z GFS amps way up). At least, I don't think western NC has anything to be worried about with regards to maintaining sufficient cold throughout the duration of the storm.

The NAM has always been a step up from the global models when it comes to catching onto a persistent wedge, and early signs of that look fabulous. I can only hope it doesn't change its mind over the next 24-36 hours. I'll feel better when we're in its wheelhouse.
 
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