Rosie
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
I wish there was one, i'd love to see the convo leading up to that.
You can use Wayback Machine.
As I was saying earlier about how typically colder deeper air filters in on the north, northwestern and west flank of winter system's, both GEFS and EPS have the 850mb temps crashing. During the transition from the wedge to deeper colder air, p. type may change and and propably differ at various locations. After the low is off to the east of the southeastern US most precip will be all snow.
packfan98
Moderator
AFD from NWS Raleigh:
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...
We`re still looking at the potential for a significant storm across
the Southeast this weekend that is increasingly likely to produce at
least some wintry precip over central NC. But wide temporal,
spatial, and intensity variations persist among model solutions
(including ensemble members), leaving us in a wait-and-see mode for
at least another day or two.
Sat-Mon: A strengthening mid-upper trough/low will cross the S
Plains, Gulf States, and Southeast during this period. Models are
fairly uniform in showing some polar stream interaction such that
the system should slow and deepen as it crosses the Southeast. This
will allow for cyclogenesis over the NW Gulf (where so many of our
wintertime storms are born) and foster further intensification as it
crosses the Gulf Coast / N FL and off the Southeast coast by Sun
night or Mon. The ECMWF remains significantly slower than the GFS
(by 6-12 hrs) and takes a farther-north path, such that it is
generally a bit warmer but with greater QPF as its slower movement
allows for greater deepening near the coast with a long-lived
deformation back extending well inland through Mon. While confidence
is rising that we`ll get a decent precip event and that a single
dominant low is the most likely pattern of cyclogenesis, there is
still too much model spread for much specificity. This model spread
is not surprising considering the mid level feature in question is
still currently well out over the Pacific. Will maintain high chance
to likely pops, higher across the S and SE, starting early Sat but
peaking Sun. Climatology for immature (still-developing) Miller A
patterns supports broad corridors of mixed precip type, and the
deterministic forecast will indicate this. It`s far too early to
speculate about amounts of wintry precip, but we could be looking at
a few inches of liquid (or liquid equivalent) before all is said and
done. Highs each day will generally range from the upper 30s to mid
40s NW to SE, with nightly lows in the 30s. -GIH
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...
We`re still looking at the potential for a significant storm across
the Southeast this weekend that is increasingly likely to produce at
least some wintry precip over central NC. But wide temporal,
spatial, and intensity variations persist among model solutions
(including ensemble members), leaving us in a wait-and-see mode for
at least another day or two.
Sat-Mon: A strengthening mid-upper trough/low will cross the S
Plains, Gulf States, and Southeast during this period. Models are
fairly uniform in showing some polar stream interaction such that
the system should slow and deepen as it crosses the Southeast. This
will allow for cyclogenesis over the NW Gulf (where so many of our
wintertime storms are born) and foster further intensification as it
crosses the Gulf Coast / N FL and off the Southeast coast by Sun
night or Mon. The ECMWF remains significantly slower than the GFS
(by 6-12 hrs) and takes a farther-north path, such that it is
generally a bit warmer but with greater QPF as its slower movement
allows for greater deepening near the coast with a long-lived
deformation back extending well inland through Mon. While confidence
is rising that we`ll get a decent precip event and that a single
dominant low is the most likely pattern of cyclogenesis, there is
still too much model spread for much specificity. This model spread
is not surprising considering the mid level feature in question is
still currently well out over the Pacific. Will maintain high chance
to likely pops, higher across the S and SE, starting early Sat but
peaking Sun. Climatology for immature (still-developing) Miller A
patterns supports broad corridors of mixed precip type, and the
deterministic forecast will indicate this. It`s far too early to
speculate about amounts of wintry precip, but we could be looking at
a few inches of liquid (or liquid equivalent) before all is said and
done. Highs each day will generally range from the upper 30s to mid
40s NW to SE, with nightly lows in the 30s. -GIH
Sorry, I forgot to add the further frames on that GIF on the EPS.As I was saying earlier about how typically colder deeper air filters in on the north, northwestern and west flank of winter system's, both GEFS and EPS have the 850mb temps crashing. During the transition from the wedge to deeper colder air, p. type may change and and propably differ at various locations. After the low is off to the east of the southeastern US most precip will be all snow.
I tried nothing was coming up?
Where did you see a thread for Feb 2014 @?
No snow for you
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Maybe the other site. I don’t think this board existed in 2014.
Avalanche
Member
So noaa has the triangle area in a heavy rain zone, youve got to go west of the triad to get in the snow zone. In other words, noaa sees this as a foothills threat westward.
No snow for you
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CJ about to go live on Facebook.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Other boards like TW and AMwx
weatherfide
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American Weather has them. I just went over there and reviewed them. The February 11, 2014 storm is very similar. I didn't get anything from that storm...
Snowflowxxl
Member
You didn’t get anything in Fayetteville????
Fountainguy97
Member
I know it’s a little early too look at temps on nam VS other models but I took a peek at it.
While this is a relatively small difference and it’s still nearly 2 days before the storm hits it’s not a bad thing to see the NAM be a little colder.
Also here is the FV3 vs NAM for the overall setup. It may be a touch stronger with HP and faster with our storm?
This is the 84hr nam. Take it for what it is.
While this is a relatively small difference and it’s still nearly 2 days before the storm hits it’s not a bad thing to see the NAM be a little colder.
Also here is the FV3 vs NAM for the overall setup. It may be a touch stronger with HP and faster with our storm?
This is the 84hr nam. Take it for what it is.
Brad Panovich video from Major Feb 2014 Winter Storm
. This was still 3 to 4 days out and models such as EURO was to warm and GFS won.
Storm5
Member
Can we please take the February 14th talk to banter . Thanks
snowlover91
Member
Be careful with comparing models this year to past events... models have all been upgraded since then so their biases may be a bit different. Having said that, the 84 hour NAM is a bit colder than other models and shows a solid 1037mb HP.
Nice observations!
Mention Feb 14 in this thread again and delete.... seriously, please use banter as Storm requested. I've been outside doing some yard work came in to catch up and had to weed through that stuff, this is what peeps don't like. Thanks!