Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[bud006]

Normally work from home but been in my office in North Atlanta the past two days. Just catching up on the trends from today ... OK, I'm paying more attention now. With the amount of moisture that's going to be available, whoever is cold enough may get a pretty substantial winter storm. Would be a great way to kick off the winter, for sure, and up here in NE Forsyth County (west side of Lake Lanier), the odds appear to have shifted a bit in our favor.

Back to lurking and learning ...

--30--

 

[snowlover91]

Took at look at the RGEM ensembles... there are some really suppressed looks in there with multiple members showing 1040+ HP.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I am at the bottom of the edge usually...lmao. I think you have a great shot at getting there bud!

Delta - given the insane qpf this system will bring and the strong CAD, how worried are you about a catastrophic ice storm in NE Ga, or even the NE ATL metro?

 

[RBR71]

Who broke the ICON

 

[Webberweather53]

Never gets old looking at these. GSP to GSO looks to be solid.

View attachment 8303 View attachment 8304

Climatologically speaking, Charlotte tends to perform slightly better than RDU during the deepest CAD events, being in Charlotte is equivalent to Orange or Alamance county for this event!

 

[snowlover91]

Here's a look at the REPS mean, notice they favor a southern route for our vort near the Baja region.

 

[RBR71]

Here's a look at the REPS mean, notice they favor a southern route for our vort near the Baja region.

I like the RGEM and that right there is a sweet look, hopefully it's on to something

 

[ATLwxfan]

CAD is responsible for Atlanta sometimes being colder then areas north and west of us.


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[Cary_Snow95]

Vort slightly weaker so far at 54 on the 18z GFS

 

[snowlover91]

I like the RGEM and that right there is a sweet look, hopefully it's on to something

The RGEM ensembles usually tend to be a bit amped in the long range from past storms I've tracked... the fact they're suppressed leads me to believe this may continue trending south/weaker based on how they look.

 

[snowlover91]

Btw anyone wanting to check out the RGEM ensembles, check the link out here. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-we...ystems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=cmc_reps

Some really cool maps available and they are very useful for picking up on trends (only goes out to 72 hours) until we get in range of the RGEM and 3km NAM.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

A continued trend south would put CLT at a better position for more snow

 

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL has a 10% chance of snow here. That's cute.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gfs trending south even more !

 

[Snowfan]

Energy is digging a little further south.

 

[snowlover91]

Of course the ICON would stall at hour 78 when it looked like an epic run was incoming..

 

[SoutheastRidge]

WRAL has a 10% chance of snow here. That's cute.

Your biggest threat most likely will be sleet or freezing rain, unless you get a front end thump.

 

[CyclonicFury]

WRAL has a 10% chance of snow here. That's cute.

They really have been downplaying this event from the beginning. That may prove them correct in the end. I think we will see at least a brief period of flakes, but we may see the precipitation change between rain, sleet and snow several times, which would limit accumulation potential.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS is a tad slower.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Your biggest threat most likely will be sleet or freezing rain, unless you get a front end thump.

They really have been downplaying this event from the beginning. That may prove them correct in the end. I think we will see at least a brief period of flakes, but we may see the precipitation change between rain, sleet and snow several times, which would limit accumulation potential.

Not based on the model runs today.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gfs seems slower

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Confluence over the NE seems better this run

 

[Cary_Snow95]

12z

18z

Pretty significant changes over the NE and the wave is much flatter

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Gonna be warmer Atleast at first this run

 

[CyclonicFury]

Not based on the model runs today.

The Euro looks great and if it were to verify I could see RDU picking up quite a bit of accumulation. It predicts much colder temperatures for Sunday than the GFS. If the high temperatures are near 40 degrees as predicted, that would likely lead to some cold rain which would melt or slow accumulations. I'm skeptical more because of the time of year than anything but there is going to be no shortage of precip with this one. We may see some heavy big fat flakes at some point which would accumulate easier than a dry powdery snow.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Confluence over the NE seems better this run

now you’re speaking my language

 

[WeatherAddiction]

Looks like it speeds up around hour 96

 

[Snownut]

Oooh weeee 18z GFS looking Good.

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[Cary_Snow95]

Low is around LA and a mb weaker. High is sliding into a nice spot at 96. Much slower with the arrival of precip this run as well.

 

[Webberweather53]

1037 high over Pennsylvania good lord lol

 

[Snowflowxxl]

High is in prime position. Idk how temps are not better

 

[RBR71]

Low is around LA and a mb weaker. High is sliding into a nice spot at 96. Much slower with the arrival of precip this run as well.

Definitely a tick south.... it's about time for another GFS happy hour weenie run

 

[Cary_Snow95]

That's a pretty big south shift. Look at those highs.. oh man

 

[Triplephase93]

One thing that we can bank on...heavy precip board wide. Pretty amazing how widespread the heavier QPF fields are.

Are we still in the game in chatt? A wing and a prayer?

 

[CyclonicFury]

A few degrees could make the difference between an epic snowstorm and an awful cold rain for some.

 

[FamouslyHot]

GFS looks a good bit south. ICON is also back up and running and looks quite a bit warmer

 

[Webberweather53]

High is in prime position. Idk how temps are not better

The GFS usually goes full ------ with CAD erosion, it's likely to be threatening ZR down to areas like Atlanta & Columbia if the GFS surface map with a 1035-1037 over PA verifies.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

About to go boom!

 

[Storm5]

Icon is north of the reliable guidance it sucks . We toss


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[RBR71]

Big jump south and as Cary snow said look at the hp

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