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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Wow at the good trends on the models starting late last night for us middle Tennessee peeps!! I’m officially excited after today’s euro run which means I’m also susceptible to heart break now.

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I have gone into full fledge :weenie: mode after that back to back Ukie Euro combo. Sorry I can’t add anything more than banter to the main thread right now. You know you’re in rarified air when posters from the NE and MA come by the SE forum to comment
 
The only reason why the mean was low for that frame in clt is Becuase it's only hour 120 lol, the storm is not done
 
Hopefully this cooler and southern trend continues for us
I am hoping buddy. We need some work down here. I am going to Gatlinburg Friday and come home Sunday, either way, I will be driving home in a mess. I'd like to pull up in my drive way to a winter storm here in Lexington too...
 
EPS gives me 45 of 51 ensemble members with 3"+ of SN. Frankly I am not convinced until I see the NAM thermal profiles inside 36 hours
 
EPS gives me 45 of 51 ensemble members with 3"+ of SN. Frankly I am not convinced until I see the NAM thermal profiles inside 36 hours

You're sitting prettier than just about everyone else on the board imo, if I was in Winston-Salem, I'd feel pretty good right about now. There could definitely be a changeover to IP that far NW per usual but you're one of the last places on the board that would mix with sleet so you can find some solace in that.
 
You're sitting prettier than just about everyone else on the board imo, if I was in Winston-Salem, I'd feel pretty good right about now. There could definitely be a changeover to IP that far NW per usual but you're one of the last places on the board that would mix with sleet so you can find some solace in that.

Better than us mountain folk? Interesting.
 
The differences between the Euro & the NAM at this range is pretty negligible, just a slightly bigger high on the NAM but most guidance has slightly amped the surface high to the north in the last few runs. This is one of those rare occasions where the LR NAM is probably not completely crazy (yet)

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Just got home from work and trying to catch up. I wish I understood more. Trying to learn. Any improvements for the Atlanta area?
 
The nam has our low south at hour 84 then the gfs.... and snow further south on northern edge of precip then the gfs. Northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia needs to be rooting for this. To get us in the game.

I think the best chance for anything is when the ULL swings through but that will depend on the track . Other than a few sleet pellets at the onset of precip the main precip type for the areas you mentioned with be rain . It’s after the low passes to the east and the ULL low moves in that there is a small chance of something frozen


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