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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

It's worth noting there are processes that the mesoscale models will pick up on in a setup like this that the globals won't handle well. I've seen the current GFS verify too warm at 850 last year with several systems, the FV3 we really don't know much about and the Euro can go both ways with being either too cold or warm. Another key is if the precip makes this in during the night or during the day.
 
Jessy89 said:
Is the EPS and euro the same?
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Yes. It's much better than the 0z EPS and the op Euro that just ran. As Kylo mentioned, this is probably the best run we've seen from the EPS besides yesterday's 12z.

Back away from the cliff. The OP is still going to have some major swings. Look for trends over multiple cycles of the Ensembles for two more days.
 
00z vs 12z
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packfan98 said:
EPS looking a little better for NE GA and Upstate SC so far...

Edit: It does continue the trend of a little slower. I think we need it to speed up just a tick.
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The EPS actually looks a tick faster this run thru 120 HR, the height anomaly associated w/ our s/w is a little further east in TX at day 5, which is consistent with the slight southward shift vs 0z this run.
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packfan98 said:
Yes. It's much better than the 0z EPS and the op Euro that just ran. As Kylo mentioned, this is probably the best run we've seen from the EPS besides yesterday's 12z.

Back away from the cliff. The OP is still going to have some major swings. Look for trends over multiple cycles of the Ensembles for two more days.
Click to expand...
Exactly, ensembles are the way to go from now on in until the Meso models kick in
 
It looks like the 12z Euro brought the low further north (which I think it will go back more on the south track.) CMC is still going with the cutting solution, which isn't going to happen. 12z FV3, GFS and the GEFS has the realistic track of low. The GEFS has been consistent over the past several of it's runs. The 12z EPS will probably have the south track because, it's also been consistent with the track of low on the past several runs as well. This system still has the potential of being a significant winter storm over a large area of the southeastern US.
 
At the risk of sounding like I'm only focused on MBY, what would areas like Upstate SC and WNC outside of the mountains need to be looking for in terms of getting enough cold to keep everything at least somewhat frozen?
 
It's important to note in this event that temperatures are going to be rather marginal. Surface temperatures are likely to be near or above freezing in most areas except at high elevations. This will likely lead to low snow precip ratios and some of the snow may melt upon contact unless it is very heavy. It certainly appears that moisture will not be an issue, though.
 
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