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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
This is nearly a 4 day event, here comes the upper wave and it's still snowing on early Tuesday for much of NC.

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Clown map... cut this in at least 65-75% SE of the triad, but it's still awesome.

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Heck yeah! Slid east just a touch.... shoot it ain't 30" but I'd be happier than a hog eatin' slop to get 3". Hope you guys get crushed, there's a metwannabe special lurking out there later this winter
 
metwannabe said:
Heck yeah! Slid east just a touch.... shoot it ain't 30" but I'd be happier than a hog eatin' slop to get 3". Hope you guys get crushed, there's a metwannabe special lurking out there later this winter
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Met you're really not far. Person county (as always) loaded up. They are only roughly and hour or so from you right?
 
Avalanche said:
Met you're really not far. Person county (as always) loaded up. They are only roughly and hour or so from you right?
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That's about right but let's face it in the Winter, Person County might as well be a day away Lol.... but tbh it's good trends and looking like a major winter storm for a good number on here, what a heckuva way to kick off this Winter
 
Solid trends today with the models. The key component that could really help (or hurt) folks out in Central NC hoping to see some snow is the late phasing shown by the Euro and UK models. This changes the rain back to snow and gives a few inches to areas like Wake County. However, the negative of this is if the phasing ends up quicker this will cut and then even Western NC will see the heavy snowfall zone narrow. A very complex setup that we probably won't have a good handle on until Thursday afternoon at the earliest.
 
SD said:
Euro is ok

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ayne.gif
 
whatalife said:
It’s going to be nice when this wave is sampled. I cannot imagine this southward trend continuing much longer.


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Definitely worried a threat for ZR could sneak up on you and the Atlanta folks at the last second if this CAD high is really as strong as modeled.
 
snowlover91 said:
Solid trends today with the models. The key component that could really help (or hurt) folks out in Central NC hoping to see some snow is the late phasing shown by the Euro and UK models. This changes the rain back to snow and gives a few inches to areas like Wake County. However, the negative of this is if the phasing ends up quicker this will cut and then even Western NC will see the heavy snowfall zone narrow. A very complex setup that we probably won't have a good handle on until Thursday afternoon at the earliest.
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Yeah this latest run probably depicted the best possible scenario for central NC. Margin of error much safer for western Triad on further.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely worried a threat for ZR could sneak up on you and the Atlanta folks at the last second if this CAD high is really as strong as modeled.
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I have no knowledge, just experience, but this is exactly how things have played out in the past.
 
TerryInTucker said:
Just a little further south and west, please. :)
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Everyone in SW of Carolinas are pulling for one of 2 things...

1. Colder 850 and surfact temps then modeled by 2-3 degrees and timing
or
2. A true ULL developing on the southern end of that storm

Plenty of time on the clock to see where it goes
 
Avalanche said:
Yeah this latest run probably depicted the best possible scenario for central NC. Margin of error much safer for western Triad on further.
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Best scenario would be this Euro track but no or even later phasing for Central and Eastern NC. Usually in phasing setups though they often phase a bit quicker than modeled so this phasing being modeled by the UK and Euro is concerning IMO. The 850s start out colder but would quickly change most folks to rain or ice depending on actual surface temps if we see quicker phasing. A fine line we are walking here. Western NC looks like the place to be for a few feet of snow.
 
snowlover91 said:
Here's the reason the Euro warms things up at the 850 level. It has a very weak/diffuse 850 low up in Tennessee that is in the process of transferring to SC and off the NC coast. In the process of this the TN 850 low is bringing in E to ESE winds which warms things up.


You can see it here on this map as well with the warm air advection pushing well inland. This detail is something the globals may not be able to properly resolve this far out and we may need to wait for the NAM/RGEM to figure out how this will unfold with any LP transfer.
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The Euro would be the best of the globals to seek out these features because of it's higher resolution. It will be good to get the other Hi-Res models take on it starting tomorrow and Thursday.
 
packfan98 said:
The Euro would be the best of the globals to seek out these features because of it's higher resolution. It will be good to get the other Hi-Res models take on it starting tomorrow and Thursday.
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I agree, the Euro should pick up on it. I'm curious what the mesoscale models will show when in range, usually in complex setups like this they can be quite different.
 
This is probably a stupid question but does anyone have experience with how well treated roads will be and if I have4 wheel drive will i be able to get back for my exam 7-10 pm on Monday night?
 
Uh, hello?! Could someone throw me down a rope please? I'd like to climb back up the cliff now....I jumped too soon. Hello? lol.

Wow, just catching up on great trends overnight and this afternoon. While the operational models are nice to look at, I'm more interested at this point just making sure the ensembles keep the track along the florida panhandle and off the coast. This FV3 inland running non-sense has to stay away.

Excellent to see both the Ukmet and Euro now agreeing on the overall parameters of a southern NC piedmont snowstorm. Those 2 are my jam.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
@WXinCanton Ellijay is right on the gradient according to the EURO clown ,map. Showing 4" here, 15" only 15 miles to my east and nothing 15 miles to my west. Getting closer today though!
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I will chase if it's that close!!! Just have to procure a 4WD vehicle to use. Though my Fusion can hold its own fairly well. Honestly if the CAD over performs I could see a major IP event or ZR in our neck of the woods. I'm down with that, lol.
 
WXinCanton said:
I will chase if it's that close!!! Just have to procure a 4WD vehicle to use. Though my Fusion can hold its own fairly well. Honestly if the CAD over performs I could see a major IP event or ZR in our neck of the woods. I'm down with that, lol.
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No freezing rain, forest close to my house.
 
metwannabe said:
I will say the 850 low tracked south of us so I'm holding out hope that temps will be colder.... but overall that's too amped, too close to the coast for us
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Yeah, I thought we would have been better off with this 850mb low track...over MYR. Borderline temps will always rule I guess.

9-km ECMWF Global Pressure United States 850 hPa Rel Vorticity 138.png
 
FFC:


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Medium-range models continue to point toward at least a chance for a
wintry mix of precipitation across portions of the forecast area
this weekend into early next week. Run-to-run variations continue
concerning the path of the surface low, but GFS and ECMWF are now
generally a bit closer to each other, bringing the low across far
south Georgia. Best chances for wintry precipitation remain confined
to the far northeast at this time, but will need to be watched
closely for any trends toward a cooler solution. Both the GFS and
ECMWF have backed off some on the wrap around precipitation
potential Sunday night through Monday, keeping the system a bit more
progressive and not anchoring a surface low along the Carolina coast
for an inordinate amount of time. All-in-all, I made minimal changes
to the extended forecast grids with this cycle.
 
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