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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Yeah this look is...not great:
ecmwf_T850_us_7.png


Looks like just a front end thump, then change to rain for most.
 
The Euro moved the initial precip into NC during the daytime hours instead of the overnight like yesterday's 12z run which probably explains to some extent the warm temperatures at the onset in the Carolinas. This is a finer detail that won't be resolved this far in advance so I wouldn't fret over this, if however we saw this on the high resolution CAMs inside 48-60 hours there might be reason to worry. Everyone take a deep breath & relax.
 
The CMC got the December storm right last year, maybe it does this year...
 
Looking at snow maps or individual runs is not a good idea at this stage. Models are going to continue flipping back and forth the next few days as they try to nail down the details. Ultimately this won't be resolved with any level of accuracy until we are about 60 hours out and getting in range of the best models like the RGEM and NAM which will sniff out any warm nose issues and help nail down the transition zones. Given the 5H look on models today I do expect some trends colder as we get a little closer to go time if it holds. The confluence looks solid still and a weak LP traveling over the Gulf Coast with the 850 low moving over SC is a money look for NC and southern VA IMO. The biggest question to be determined is if we will see a NW trend and if so how much.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I may have translated what Webber said earlier wrong but if it looks better in the short term then eventually it will be better in the long term we just have to be patient
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The major noteworthy trend collectively in today's 12z suite and one that's most likely to not be noise is the weaker vort max over the NE Pacific in the short-range & slightly favors the suppressed solutions. Everything else that evolved thereafter is largely up in the air at least for a few more days. I'd like to get to about late Wednesday or Thursday when a part of this wave reaches the coast of California & are within range of the CAMs before worrying about superfluous issues like run-to-run changes in temps, precipitation types & amounts, etc amongst individual operational models.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The major noteworthy trend collectively in today's 12z suite and one that's most likely to not be noise is the weaker vort max over the NE Pacific in the short-range & slightly favors the suppressed solutions. Everything else that evolved thereafter is largely up in the air at least for a few more days. I'd like to get to about late Wednesday or Thursday when a part of this wave reaches the coast of California & are within range of the CAMs before worrying about superfluous issues like run-to-run changes in temps, precipitation types & amounts, etc amongst individual operational models.
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Agreed 100%, it's pointless at this stage to be trying to decipher the transition zones, there are too many variables at this stage to nail anything down and models will just keep shifting back and forth. The mesoscale models will be useful for that and we won't be in their useful range until 48-60 hours out.
 
What I'm looking for on the EPS and GEFS is a clear shift in one direction or another. Thus far the EPS and GEFS members have had a range of solutions from no snow to tons of it to more of a CAD event, all which are options depicted by various OP models like the GFS, FV3, CMC and Euro. Once we start seeing the ensembles shifting to a unified idea with strong agreement I think we will start seeing things solidify in regards to track and snowfall. The 12z GEFS took a small step towards that but still a long ways to go.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The major noteworthy trend collectively in today's 12z suite and one that's most likely to not be noise is the weaker vort max over the NE Pacific in the short-range & slightly favors the suppressed solutions. Everything else that evolved thereafter is largely up in the air at least for a few more days. I'd like to get to about late Wednesday or Thursday when a part of this wave reaches the coast of California & are within range of the CAMs before worrying about superfluous issues like run-to-run changes in temps, precipitation types & amounts, etc amongst individual operational models.
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And the Euro run is the only one lately that has not been more positive towards a good storm for most of NC. It's one run of one model versus more runs of other models showing a good storm here, and even the Euro has shown that in previous runs.
 
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