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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

So gfs/fv3/gefs looks good for snow down to I-85 in sc and parts of me Georgia. Euro/cmc looks wet am I correct in saying that? If so more models are in our favor then not
 
Jessy89 said:
So gfs/fv3/gefs looks good for snow down to I-85 in sc and parts of me Georgia. Euro/cmc looks wet am I correct in saying that? If so more models are in our favor then not
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The CMC is on the winter storm side, the EURO right now is pretty much on own.

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Bsud said:
Anyone have the EURO totals map?

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537007179_us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120312_198_493_215(1).thumb.png.6ecf4818c1afb0834cd14f518f64b8c9.png
 
MichaelJ said:
The UK ticked North as did the Euro so this trend of that model combination is not good at all for most here
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The UK actually came south from earlier runs, at least based on the rough maps I've seen. Overall the changes today I believe have been positive but still plenty of time for things to change either way.
 
What I meant was they were further North than the rest of suite of models. Now if the UK continues to move south from previous of it's runs then that would be a very good thing.
 
Well, this was pretty disheartening from met ILMRoss on American:

"Ehhh... I don't really know if this issue is ever going to go away. The surface highs are nice, but the air mass we're inheriting is a rotting, modifying arctic air mass from earlier in the week. This air mass is going to be a pool of -3 to +3 C temps at 850, and I don't really know a mechanism that's going to change that. As of now, models have for the most part graced us with adequate temperatures, but this is a situation that might be somewhat more sensitive to mishandling of mid level temps than others. The entrenched cold air is never the thing that "wowed" us with this system, so far it's the qpf."
 
I’m starting to feel like this is mostly a mountain storm. But still very hopeful to see a couple inches outside the mountains into upstate and other areas. Euro the most reliable model certainly didn’t improve chances
 
FFC:
.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Medium-range models still showing the potential for wintry weather
across portions of the forecast area this coming weekend, still
mainly across the northeast. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models, remain
fairly divergent concerning the surface low track/strength as well as
the evolution/strength/persistence of the wedge. Canadian model
continues to lift the low cleanly north of the state and is thus the
least wintry. 12Z ECMWF came in with a decidedly more northerly track
for the surface low (quite close to the GFS) and is subsequently a
bit warmer this cycle. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are developing
odd surface lows and off the east coast, trailing the main system as
it exits, and somewhat anchoring them in place for a while.
Confidence is especially low concerning this development and the
resulting wrap-around precipitation potential late in the period.
 
Honestly nc has the best chance, and why are we writing it off, so many things can change in 6 days, I've seen some very marginal setups work here, not saying it will this time but I sit at a good spot north of clt
 
WxWatch said:
Does the 12z Euro have that secondary low? I can't tell from the free maps. 12z GFS and FV3 have it.
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I believe it does but it's too warm. Let me see if I can find the H5 to tell for sure.

Edit: Yeah it does have the second wave, the problem is temps are bad. There's some free maps on weather.us for the Euro but it comes out WAY later.
 
packfan98 said:
Well, this was pretty disheartening from met ILMRoss on American:

"Ehhh... I don't really know if this issue is ever going to go away. The surface highs are nice, but the air mass we're inheriting is a rotting, modifying arctic air mass from earlier in the week. This air mass is going to be a pool of -3 to +3 C temps at 850, and I don't really know a mechanism that's going to change that. As of now, models have for the most part graced us with adequate temperatures, but this is a situation that might be somewhat more sensitive to mishandling of mid level temps than others. The entrenched cold air is never the thing that "wowed" us with this system, so far it's the qpf."
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I don't buy his argument. There is plenty of cold air available as the event starts.
fv3p_T850_us_21.png


Euro shows this
ecmwf_T850_us_6.png


Although the air over NC isn't exceptionally cold there is plenty to work with if we have a 1035+ HP in a prime position. I've seen events like this go both ways but it's going to come down to the details which we won't know for a few days. It's not a perfect setup and SE snow events rarely are but it's one that can produce if the pieces line up right.
 
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