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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

All the ops and ensembles have anywhere from 3 to 4 inches here to over a foot. I know that's a big difference, but even getting the low end would be great so early in December. I am just happy to see all of them showing snow here.
 
Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 3.03.51 PM.png

As others noted, this is a ton of QPF for an ensemble suite at this range, and if you accounted for dispersion the totals would be much higher than this even. Almost the entire SE forum could be looking at 1" or more of precipitation in some way, shape, or form if the EPS had its way. Just absurd lol.
 
I’m still riding this one tolls the end 20/50 had some type of snow some big some small. Never expected anything big here still don’t but enough to say I got something
 
Not going to lie, thermal profiles are too marginal for me to be confident atm. When that radar fires up and i see snow to my sw moving ne, and that snowline stays staionary or even moves southward, then ill know, we have reeled it in
 
I just wish we could see the temps trend better. Not the best of chance for my are, but want to see if the models lock in on that “second wave” of backside moisture in the future.
 
Webberweather53 said:
View attachment 8135

As others noted, this is a ton of QPF for an ensemble suite at this range, and if you accounted for dispersion the totals would be much higher than this even. Almost the entire SE forum could be looking at 1" or more of precipitation in some way, shape, or form if the EPS had its way. Just absurd lol.
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That's a boatload of moisture. Too bad it can't all be snow for many.

After seeing the EPS, I took a half step back from the cliff and the overall trend seems to be coming south slightly, so therefore overnight could have indeed been just a blip in the trends. Seem to have that with storms several days out.
 
Avalanche said:
Not going to lie, thermal profiles are too marginal for me to be confident atm. When that radar fires up and i see snow to my sw moving ne, and that snowline stays staionary or even moves southward, then ill know, we have reeled it in
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Yeah I’ll be watching that CC on RadarScope.


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One of the main reasons the Euro is warmer is the track of the 850 low. Notice the low is up near Tennessee. This pushes SE winds across SC and NC bringing in warm air aloft which is why it showed more rain instead of snow.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_7.png


Compare this with the GFS which has a weaker and strung out low to the south showing NE winds at 850.
gfs_z850_vort_us_25.png


In my experience the 850 low track is often poorly modeled at this range and won't be resolved until we are within about 72 hours from the start of the event. Many of our busted events (rain instead of winter weather) I've noticed the 850 low was tracking north but models didn't properly handle the warmer air until the mesoscale models began to pick it up. This is something to watch very closely in the coming days especially once we get in range of the NAM.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Maybe NE GA. But the rest of North GA ?
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It's still a tough call. The freezing line may fluctuate during the event. I do think that all precip. would change over to all snow acorss all of north GA as the low pushes east as colder air filters in from the NW. Also, I believe that it will be colder behind the low, because typically behind winter system's, deeper colder air arrives on the northern and western flank of the system, just like what the FV3 is projecting. This is why the FV3 should not be counted out.
7e57a49e416207fee956bba2a1387e5d.jpg
 
Here's an even better look. The GFS has the 850 low just WSW of Birmingham. Notice how the warm air advection extends to the east and slightly north of the 850 low. This is why you want the 850mb low to your south because it if moves over you or very close you're going to be mixing or all rain.
gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_seus_24.png
 
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