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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Another thing to consider while watching model trends is the genesis of the 850mb low. Here's a comparison of the 18z GFS and NAM at 84:
gfs850_0418z.png
nam850_0418z.png
They're similar on timing/location, but the NAM has a weaker low with larger ridging above it. This is what we want to see for more widespread snow, in addition to a stronger CAD. A weaker, suppressed 850mb low will prevent significant warm air advection. Further into the GFS run, the strength and relatively northward position of the 850mb low is what causes many to turn over to mixed precip or rain. Other than scouring out the CAD too quickly, of course. Granted, this is the long-range NAM but hopefully it delivers similar looks to this in future runs.
 
Storm5 said:
Still 4 days . These op runs are well within their ensemble envelope so while it’s not what we want , these type solutions are possible


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True, but an entrenched wedge with a 1035 up top going *poof* is not one of those possible solutions
 
Bsud said:
I think it's safe to say, "Possible" can be taken out of the title. Theres probably a 95% chance theres going to be a winter storm.

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100% chance of winter storm for mountains. Upstate gfs says 1inch this run. I’d be happy with 1inch vs nothing. But that’s not my idea of a storm. So I’d still call it possible for upstate
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Runs starting tonight will be pretty important
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Naah, I’ve had more storms then I’d like show a good solid snow the day before only to start going north in the morning and end up snow into Kentucky and Ohio by day’s end. But yes we do want to start seeing positive trends and not negative ones going into tomorrow as time for good changes will start not being on our side.
 
IP will ruin snow amounts. I would recommend deducting up to 75% of any snow map generally from a line near southern Wake to southern Mecklenburg counties. And counting on backside potential or deform bands at this range is silly. A lot of big time events end up as more freezing drizzle or non-accumulating snow showers. I think conservative offices will go with 1-3” and go higher as it happens if it does. Obviously, I am only talking about these two big cities and immediate areas south or east.
 
Jessy89 said:
100% chance of winter storm for mountains. Upstate gfs says 1inch this run. I’d be happy with 1inch vs nothing. But that’s not my idea of a storm. So I’d still call it possible for upstate
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Parts of the upstate are showing up to 6" you must just be looking at one location. Not the upstate as a whole

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Bsud said:
Parts of the upstate are showing up to 6" you must just be looking at one location. Not the upstate as a whole

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I’m just south of Pickens close to the airport. I’m just basing that on the most recent gfs which was warmer. I’m personally pulling on the euro to be right that drops 6-12 on upstate north of 85
 
I’m
WxWatch said:
18z GFS simulated radar, still projecting a prolonged winter event.
9249cc49844309b17f72cccb0285c027.gif
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if only the radar would actually look like this.
 
Piedmont Triad and Foothills. Even some snow deduction is needed here...by up to 10-20% from the clown maps. Obviously still impressive amounts of 6-12”+. Sleet will be propelled as far north as Mount Airy...at times.
 
Western foothills (west of Wilkesboro) into the mountains of Ashe, Watauga and Alleghany. Very small reduction needed...0 to 10% in some areas on the clown maps. Sleet may struggle making an appearance for any meaningful length of time. Expect local economies to suffer heading into the Christmas season. Travel will be impossible.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Western foothills (west of Wilkesboro) into the mountains of Ashe, Watauga and Alleghany. Very small reduction needed...0 to 10% in some areas on the clown maps. Sleet may struggle making an appearance for any meaningful length of time. Expect local economies to suffer heading into the Christmas season. Travel will be impossible.
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Would love to go to west jefferson in this
 
My first prediction on totals. Up to 2 feet in the NC mountains. Isolated locations and mountain tops may approach 3 feet or more. Foothills...10-14” expected with locally higher totals approaching 20” above 2,000 feet. Piedmont Triad...Winston-GSO...6-12” possible with some sleet accumulation too. 4-8” south and east of there with major sleet. Big cities...Raleigh and Charlotte...1-3” with some 3-6”+ totals across portions of the two counties. I do NOT expect any sig. ZR due to heavy rates and marginable temps. Heavy sleet accumulations are possible anywhere from Statesville to Charlotte to High Point.
 
I believe their is no chance for me here in east central Mississippi as of now ! I hope things change. I sure would love to be in gatlinburg this weekend that’s for sure !
 
It will come to a time we "throw out" most of the models, except for sort range models and simulated radar. I think the simulated radars that I've been posting are handing the CAD better than the typical model.
 
I may be bitting a little early but I do not foresee anymore significant track changes. Temperatures I think will trend slightly cooler which could help ratios for a select few on here but way too early to know any fine details. Sleet and IP lines will likely waver 35 miles back and fourth from the heart of Raleigh or Charlotte.
 
WxWatch said:
It will come to a time we "throw out" most of the models, except for sort range models and simulated radar. I think the simulated radars that I've been posting are handing the CAD better than the typical model.
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Typically the reg models almost always underestimates the CAD. More than likely this will be colder in the CAD areas than models are showing

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fv3 here maybe? http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/

The 18 z here does not look like the op gfs at all. if I had to compare, I'd sam more like the 6z GFS?? Timing is more like the old runs of the GFS unlike the 18z op gfs that had the timing of the EURO up here and not starting until Sun afternoon as opposed to Sat midnight on the GFS here and earlier GFS and FV3 runs
 
Tarheel1 said:
Only wet S of 85! Per Chris J
God I want him to be wrong! He sure seemed smug about it too!
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I guess he just ignored the Euro and the Ukie and every other model that went south today. I don’t think they believe the 1039-1040 HP. That’s ok. When he jumps on board, we get screwed anyway.
 
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